This is ludicrous

[Greg]

November of 1927:

Was this a result of global warming? Sorry...couldn't resist... :razz:

 

[loafer89]

dont forecast models tend to be based on similar situations from years past? Not short term but when looking at seasonal forecasts, i believe they do use past years with similar meteorlogical setups.

or at least that's sorta how i understand it.

This is what I have heard and read is the case, alot of weather records go back to the mid 19th century. Past storm tracks and temperature readings are used to help with current forecast models.

 

[loafer89]

Here is part of a forecast discussion from Northern Minnesota:

DISCUSSION...
THE SITUATION IS THAT A POWERFUL PACIFIC FLOW CONTINUES FOR THE
NEXT EIGHT DAYS. THE WAY THAT WORKS IS THAT A LONG SERIES OF MAJOR
STORMS...ASSOCIATED WITH AN INTENSE ZONAL JET...CRASH INTO
BRITISH COLUMBIA AND THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE MOUNTAINS IN FROM
THE COAST ARIDIFY THE STRONG WEST WINDS...CAUSING THE HEAT OF
CONDENSATION TO BE RELEASED. THE WARM AND VERY DRY AIR THEN
SPREADS EAST OF THE ROCKIES AND CROSSES THE CONTINENT SOUTH OF 60
NORTH. WITH THE LOW SUN...COLD GROUND...AND REMAINING SNOW...A 1
KM DEEP LAYER OF CHILLY DAMP AIR IS TRAPPED NEAR THE SURFACE AND
BELOW THE WARM AND DRY PACIFIC AIR. MOST OF THIS TRAPPING IS EAST
OF THE RED RIVER.

THERE ARE MINOR VARIATIONS. AS AN UNUSUALLY WARM RIDGE ALOFT
BUILDS...OUR FLOW WILL TURN NORTH...BRINGING TEMPORARY REMOVEL OF
THE LOW CLOUDS...COOLING...AND POSSIBLE WEAK SNOW SHOWERS ALONG
THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR THIS WEEIEND. THE HUGE RIDGE WILL
BECOME ESTABLISHED MONDAY AND BE FOLLOWED BY A STRONG AND DRY
ZONAL FLOW FOR THE REST OF THE COMING WEEK AND THROUGH THE
FOLLOWING WEEKEND.

THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE UNSEASONABLY
WARM AND QUITE ARID PACIFIC FLOW TO CONTINUE UNABATED THROUGHOUT
THE NEXT FOURTEEN DAYS.


I usually look at these areas to see what the weather is like "upstream". Hopefully this warm air does not make it to the East Coast

 

[ajl50]

With ridges and troughs you can't just assume we're on the downstream end. Have to follow the jet. So while northern Minn. might be warm the jet stream might turn way down after that and we'll be in bone chilling cold.
HOWEVER- I see warm from 12/10-12/20. Then intense cold.

 

[ctenidae]

HOWEVER- I see warm from 12/10-12/20. Then intense cold.

Don't let my wife hear that. She's still beating me up because we're going to Arkansas instead of out west next week.

 

[loafer89]

The powerful pacific jet bothers me as it would make it harder for cold air to come south of the Canadian border and make any cool down brief. Hopefully you are correct and late December and the rest of the winter will be cold and snowy. The longer the cold air stays in Canada the colder the outbreak will be with snowcover and perpetual darkness now occuring in that region of the world.

I hope the weather stays cold enough to build a sustainable base at resorts for all to enjoy.

 

[from_the_NEK]

HOWEVER- I see warm from 12/10-12/20. Then intense cold.

Loosely translated:
Any snow we have is melted an then we don't get anymore because it -30 degrees in early January. We finally get some skiable snow in mid February but it is too late to keep me from moving to Antactica where there will at least be some snow for the next 30 years. But that is probably going to melt too. :angry:

 

[thetrailboss]

The powerful pacific jet bothers me as it would make it harder for cold air to come south of the Canadian border and make any cool down brief. Hopefully you are correct and late December and the rest of the winter will be cold and snowy. The longer the cold air stays in Canada the colder the outbreak will be with snowcover and perpetual darkness now occuring in that region of the world.

I hope the weather stays cold enough to build a sustainable base at resorts for all to enjoy.

Didn't we have the same problem last season?

The same problem for the start of the 2004-2005 season?

 

[kingslug]

The drinking must continue until moral and the weather improves. Cheers!

 

[snoseek]

seriously, I wouldn't take any of this info to seriously. I'm not going to get pissed about a bad winter (or December) until we actually have one. My gf's father worked for noaa as a meteiroligist for 30 years and we have had this conversation many times whenever i've tried to pry anything past 5-7 days out of him.

 

[kingslug]

Oh, and remember, skiing is cheap out west in April. This is how I make up for no early season.

 

[hammer]

TWC just reported below 60 deg F in my hometown...woo hoo!

 

[Greg]

Yeah. We're doing better here. 24 hours later and we're down to 50 degrees! Still way too warm - keep droppin'!

 

[madskier6]

The drinking must continue until moral and the weather improves. Cheers!

I think you mean until the morale improves. The morals around here are unlikely to improve even with lots of cold weather and fresh snow. :wink:

 

[andyzee]

Ludacris is on Saturday Night Live this week.

 

[Terry]

28 degrees here this morning. Will warm up today, but SR will be snowmaking tonight full bore!! Hopefully opening by early next week.

 

[Grassi21]

Ludacris is on Saturday Night Live this week.

i own all of ludacris' albums. no joke... please don't judge me.

 

[andyzee]

i own all of ludacris' albums. no joke... please don't judge me.

Good stuff there, a couple of my favorites: 10 - P-Poppin and Blow It Out :grin:

 

[ski_resort_observer]

I don't know if this will make ya feel any better but except for Utah, PNW and Colorado, the rest of country is lacking in the white stuff as well. Nothing open in Montana yet, the Lake Tahoe area has only a couple of places open with a trail or two. We are not alone and with the east's snowmaking prowess we might be doing better than most in a couple of weeks.

 

[loafer89]

I don't know if this will make ya feel any better but except for Utah, PNW and Colorado, the rest of country is lacking in the white stuff as well. Nothing open in Montana yet, the Lake Tahoe area has only a couple of places open with a trail or two. We are not alone and with the east's snowmaking prowess we might be doing better than most in a couple of weeks.

Well Washington State seems to be doing very well, I just checked out Crystal Mountain Resorts website and they are opened and NOAA forecasts nearly continuous snowfall into next weekend with 3' predicted between now and then.