Well hopefully everybody has had a nice first weekend out there. Mild temps and man made snow aren't my dream skiing conditions but hopefully if you got out there it was enjoyable.
For the next upcoming week we're going to have ANOTHER warm up but interior regions shouldn't get as warm as they did earlier this month and it should be fairly rain free. There actually is a little disturbance that will work through in the middle of the week and depending on timing could lay down some light mountain snow or sleet (I’ll take anything to cover the grass).
After that it's mild (average + 8) till Thursday/Friday really early am. Then the artic outbreak and low that is starting to slam that west (see two feet+ of snow at Alta mon-wed) will move in. While the air will have moderated somewhat, it will nevertheless be the coldest air of the season so far and it should arrive with some rain on the front side and snow on the back side. (No idea how much honestly) After that front crosses, the rest of next weekend will start several days (I say 5-6 days) of full-time snowmaking temps with daytime highs in the teens in some places. Furthermore, area's prone to lake effect will certainly get snow as the lakes are WARM right now and this air is COLD and dry. Depending on the angle of attack we could actually see snow squalls in the Adirondacks, Catskills and the Vermont mountains (jay).
Right now the GFS model, The Euro model and several other models have been flip flopping on the development of a coastal storm for the Northeast between 12/5-12/7. I have three thoughts on this. First this would require that the cold air arriving on 12/1 sticks around and the low and it's moist air ride up over it for snow. I tend to think that this assumption is pretty acceptable. Second there is a history this fall of weak low's blowing up - (see pre-thanksgiving absurd sub-tropical low that pounded the coast) so anything that can get organized off the Carolina’s would certainly have the potential to strengthen. Lastly however I don't trust the storm track and don't have any real confidence that the low the models see would actually reach the coast. Regardless we'll watch this more.
One last important point- This cold stretch upcoming IS NOT the onset of winter. Following this period- say around 12/8 we're going to see another warm up. Simply put the ENSO (el nino) and Pacific Jet is too strong right now to allow a blocking pattern to develop entrenching cold in the northeast. This cold air has too much energy and will slide off the coast. (When it does however the mild air could set off snow showers in the mountains as it over runs the cold air. See 3/3-3/5 snow event last march) The mild air that replaces it will not be a blowtorch but will limit snowmaking to nighttime at higher elevations. However there are a lot of signs that after that warm up we will see the peaking of the ENSO and the development of a nice blocking pattern/winter pattern set up starting around 12/20. This would be the onset of winter for real as most are in agreement that this winter will not have the insanity of last winter and we should see a nice stable winter from Jan-March.
Oh...any does anybody remember how the skiing was in the following winters
Dec. 2001 to March 2002
Dec. 2002 to March 2003
Dec. 1994 to March 1995
I know that's an odd quesiton but any specific memories would be great. I see these as years with somewhat similar weather patterns and while there is much weather data regarding snowfall and whatnot none of it is really ski area specific and we all know that snowfall and average temps don't tell the story of how good the skiing was.
Later-
(P.S. all of this can change in a hearbeat and nobody can predict the weather.)
For the next upcoming week we're going to have ANOTHER warm up but interior regions shouldn't get as warm as they did earlier this month and it should be fairly rain free. There actually is a little disturbance that will work through in the middle of the week and depending on timing could lay down some light mountain snow or sleet (I’ll take anything to cover the grass).
After that it's mild (average + 8) till Thursday/Friday really early am. Then the artic outbreak and low that is starting to slam that west (see two feet+ of snow at Alta mon-wed) will move in. While the air will have moderated somewhat, it will nevertheless be the coldest air of the season so far and it should arrive with some rain on the front side and snow on the back side. (No idea how much honestly) After that front crosses, the rest of next weekend will start several days (I say 5-6 days) of full-time snowmaking temps with daytime highs in the teens in some places. Furthermore, area's prone to lake effect will certainly get snow as the lakes are WARM right now and this air is COLD and dry. Depending on the angle of attack we could actually see snow squalls in the Adirondacks, Catskills and the Vermont mountains (jay).
Right now the GFS model, The Euro model and several other models have been flip flopping on the development of a coastal storm for the Northeast between 12/5-12/7. I have three thoughts on this. First this would require that the cold air arriving on 12/1 sticks around and the low and it's moist air ride up over it for snow. I tend to think that this assumption is pretty acceptable. Second there is a history this fall of weak low's blowing up - (see pre-thanksgiving absurd sub-tropical low that pounded the coast) so anything that can get organized off the Carolina’s would certainly have the potential to strengthen. Lastly however I don't trust the storm track and don't have any real confidence that the low the models see would actually reach the coast. Regardless we'll watch this more.
One last important point- This cold stretch upcoming IS NOT the onset of winter. Following this period- say around 12/8 we're going to see another warm up. Simply put the ENSO (el nino) and Pacific Jet is too strong right now to allow a blocking pattern to develop entrenching cold in the northeast. This cold air has too much energy and will slide off the coast. (When it does however the mild air could set off snow showers in the mountains as it over runs the cold air. See 3/3-3/5 snow event last march) The mild air that replaces it will not be a blowtorch but will limit snowmaking to nighttime at higher elevations. However there are a lot of signs that after that warm up we will see the peaking of the ENSO and the development of a nice blocking pattern/winter pattern set up starting around 12/20. This would be the onset of winter for real as most are in agreement that this winter will not have the insanity of last winter and we should see a nice stable winter from Jan-March.
Oh...any does anybody remember how the skiing was in the following winters
Dec. 2001 to March 2002
Dec. 2002 to March 2003
Dec. 1994 to March 1995
I know that's an odd quesiton but any specific memories would be great. I see these as years with somewhat similar weather patterns and while there is much weather data regarding snowfall and whatnot none of it is really ski area specific and we all know that snowfall and average temps don't tell the story of how good the skiing was.
Later-
(P.S. all of this can change in a hearbeat and nobody can predict the weather.)
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read: warm) so I'll be able to :angry:asily fix them...
