Week of February 2nd, storm speculation

[BenedictGomez]

Another busted storm for the NEK :-?. However, the 4" dense inches last night was good. All the way up the 6.5 inches at the stake.

Sweet. You'll be happy to know you're now ahead of NJ.

We lost a lot of snow yesterday with the 44 temps, I dont think we have more than 2" now. Though 3" to 6" is on the way tomorrow, we may retake the lead!

 

[Wavewheeler]

I hope it's in NNJ. We don't need any snow here at the coast. You can have it! But we are supposed to get 3-6". I told my friends that they were wasting their time washing their cars these past 2 days but they don't listen. I got my snow shovel out in any case.

Here it's supposed to rain Wed but up north the forecast is for SNOW. Let's hope that holds.

 

[fbrissette]

Jay claims 4-6" today, which is very honest.

I also noticed they did not use the usual inflation factor. Relatively heavy snow at the base, more fluffy at the top.

 

[Boston Bulldog]

EURO inched north and is more amped

Good mid level deform snows in NNE as H5 and H7 close off.

 

[catsup948]

EURO inched north and is more amped

Good mid level deform snows in NNE as H5 and H7 close off.

Let's keep this trend up!

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[Boston Bulldog]

GFS a tick north

 

[Boston Bulldog]

BOX looks like they have a good handle on this.

 

[catsup948]

Give me the front end thump of the NAM!

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[Boston Bulldog]

Wow, look at the big fat deformation band the GFS sticks over VT. Just wow.



Congrats Stowe, MRG et.al

That band is going to linger for a while, in fact N.VT may be the last place in New England to shut off precip if that band forms as modeled.

 

[ScottySkis]

Perfect soft snow today at Hunter.

 

[billski]

BOX looks like they have a good handle on this.
View attachment 10766

They pulled it down, saying they want to focus on "one storm at a time".

 

[billski]

Parts of NNE are gonna do just fine

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The met at Stowe doesn't think so...

 

[billski]

GFS a tick north

Wind 'er up. I want to hear more ticks!

 

[twinplanx]

Wow, look at the big fat deformation band the GFS sticks over VT. Just wow.

View attachment 10767

Congrats Stowe, MRG et.al

That band is going to linger for a while, in fact N.VT may be the last place in New England to shut off precip if that band forms as modeled.

Thats MONEY right there!!

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[BenedictGomez]

They pulled it down, saying they want to focus on "one storm at a time".

I can 100% understand that Given recent events.

Because 99% of people don't understand how unreliable these models are outside of 4 or 5 days. The amount of 8 and 10 day "map hysteria" is really getting ridiculous.

 

[fbrissette]

I can 100% understand that Given recent events.

Because 99% of people don't understand how unreliable these models are outside of 4 or 5 days. The amount of 8 and 10 day "map hysteria" is really getting ridiculous.

In essence, numerical weather models have zero skill (no better than random) past 7 days for precipitation, and little skill at 5 days (they are statistically better than random, but not by much).

 

[bill.deleo]

Let it storm!!

 

[BenedictGomez]

To give some idea of the unpredictability, regarding tomorrow, a snowfall that is going to START in just roughly SEVEN HOURS from now, two days ago I was in the 1" to 3" zone, yesterday 2" to 4", this morning some stuck with that lower figure and some went 3" to 6", and now as of the late night NAM explosion some say 4" to 8".

Moral of the story is, at a certain threshold this is as uncertain as Vegas putting odds on football games, and sometimes the Seahawks are going to win in a blowout.

 

[Wavewheeler]

Perfect soft snow today at Hunter.

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
AS OF 945 PM EST...THE LATEST RAP13 AND 00Z/03 NAM12 CONTINUE TODEPICT A NORTHWARD TREND IN THE QPF ASSOCIATED WITH TOMORROW/S FASTMOVING IMPULSE. HAVE THEREFORE RAISED FORECAST SNOWFALL AMTS...TO1-3 INCHES ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY INTO NORTHERN LITCHFIELDCO...AND 2-4 INCHES FOR SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD CO. WILL HAVE TO WATCHTRENDS OVERNIGHT IN CASE THESE AMTS NEED TO BE ADJUSTED SLIGHTLYHIGHER AND/OR NORTHWARD. SOME LIGHT SNOW MAY REACH AS FAR NORTH ASCENTRAL/NORTHERN BERKSHIRE CO...AND PERHAPS EVEN SOUTHERNVT...WITH SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES POSSIBLY REACHING INTOSOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CAPITAL REGION.

AND it's supposed to snow all night on Tuesday and all day Wednesday.
If so, I will be going Thursday and Friday.

 

[andrec10]

Winter Storm Watches just posted for a large area! Even into Dutchess County it says 6-12!