Week of February 2nd, storm speculation

[Wavewheeler]

Worse than useless! It messes up the road for the commute!!!

Exactly. It wreak havoc on people's work and does NOTHING for those of us that want to ski in it!

 

[skifree]

Off to a very strong start, 2 inches+in 3hours and it's only the beginning. The winds are howling at 2000'. God I love winter !

I just got a tingle

 

[billski]

Exactly. It wreak havoc on people's work and does NOTHING for those of us that want to ski in it!

So everyone bitches. Worst of the worst.

 

[billski]

Some serious dumpage going on right now in Central and Northern VT. Good for them!

 

[catsup948]

Snowing hard into western maine.

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[BenedictGomez]

Verbatim this is all snow for the Catskills.....r/s line never gets that far north. < 80 hours out this can likely be taken seriously now.

 

[BenedictGomez]

Canuck further south with it though. Still some snow for mountains though.

 

[Tin]

This thing really went south. Watched totals in southern VT go from 10-14" and rain at the coast on Thursday go to 5-8" from Killington down to Yawgoo. Hopefully next weekend is the big one. Anything helps though.

 

[Boston Bulldog]

This thing really went south. Watched totals in southern VT go from 10-14" and rain at the coast on Thursday go to 5-8" from Killington down to Yawgoo. Hopefully next weekend is the big one. Anything helps though.

It's going to tick back north. Just watch.


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[Tin]

If it does I'll be in the woods at Stratton Wednesday.

 

[Boston Bulldog]

If it doesn't move north, I'll eat crow.

 

[St. Bear]

Jay claims 4-6" today, which is very honest.

 

[St. Bear]

Coming out of Buckaroo Bonzai woods at Jay.

 

[BenedictGomez]

12z GFS holds serve....Catskills/Berks are the winner with about 8"'ish inches verbatim at 10:1 (s.VT would pick up at least 5 or 6 inches too).

12z Canadian (the global one) starts out the same, but comes more north as the event continues. Still 7 or 8 inches Cats/Berks, but also 7'ish or so for the bottom 1/2 of Vermont and 5'ish or so for central Vermont, but that's not taking into effect colder mountain temps/elevation so maybe a bit more if lucky.

12z NAM (now that we're only 3 days out, you might want to consider this too) is warmer, and MUCH farther north than Canadian or GFS and much wetter (like it always is), 8" Cats, 9" Berks, 9" or more for entire state of Vermont.


Anyway, keep in mind with the above I'm just telling you approximately verbatim model output, and snow totals are "good enough for government work", it's not like I'm plotting this in Excel or anything, plus this doesnt take into effect cold air damning from snowpack or elevation, so if anything, upside to my "inches" above is likely IF the storm pans out as modeled.


Net/net, the NAM is the outlier, so I'm assuming the GFS and Canadian will likely be more correct, and if so you'll find me at Plattekill next weekend!

 

[steamboat1]

Jay claims 4-6" today, which is very honest.

Stowe is also claiming 4"-5".

 

[Wavewheeler]

Today is looking rainy for the Cats and tomorrow is nothing but another useless coastal storm that does no one any good but piss everyone off....BUT Wed 2/5 and the weekend are looking good up north! If this pans out I may head up to the Cats Thursday-Friday. Gotta go while the going is good because you never know when it might rain and all go away.

Think

 

[from_the_NEK]

12z GFS holds serve....Catskills/Berks are the winner with about 8"'ish inches verbatim at 10:1 (s.VT would pick up at least 5 or 6 inches too).

12z Canadian (the global one) starts out the same, but comes more north as the event continues. Still 7 or 8 inches Cats/Berks, but also 7'ish or so for the bottom 1/2 of Vermont and 5'ish or so for central Vermont, but that's not taking into effect colder mountain temps/elevation so maybe a bit more if lucky.

12z NAM (now that we're only 3 days out, you might want to consider this too) is warmer, and MUCH farther north than Canadian or GFS and much wetter (like it always is), 8" Cats, 9" Berks, 9" or more for entire state of Vermont.


Anyway, keep in mind with the above I'm just telling you approximately verbatim model output, and snow totals are "good enough for government work", it's not like I'm plotting this in Excel or anything, plus this doesnt take into effect cold air damning from snowpack or elevation, so if anything, upside to my "inches" above is likely IF the storm pans out as modeled.


Net/net, the NAM is the outlier, so I'm assuming the GFS and Canadian will likely be more correct, and if so you'll find me at Plattekill next weekend!

Another busted storm for the NEK :-?. However, the 4" dense inches last night was good. All the way up the 6.5 inches at the stake.

 

[Boston Bulldog]

I see a pretty uniform 6-10 for most of New England. 4-8 in NEK


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[Boston Bulldog]

Parts of NNE are gonna do just fine and might even exceed SNE totals if the mid level frontogenesis allows it. You worry warts are going to do very well. H7 and H5 deformation is up that way allowing for thermal packing and thus frontogenesis while down here it's a 6-8hr WAA thump with lighter snows on either side. the area from the SNE south coast to maybe Hartford or so are the ones that might see a pellet or two.

Also, there might be a 2-3 hr period where it absolutely rips as the tongue of the LLJ approaches from the SW.


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[jaysunn]

Another busted storm for the NEK . However, the 4" dense inches last night was good. All the way up the 6.5 inches at the stake.

Pictures of the stake please.