Weekend of 3/13 - 3/14

[polski]

Just when I'd written off this weekend, now it looks like Saturday will be an opportunity for me to use one of my Mad Card vouchers. (Taxes can wait until Sunday!) NWS-Burlington this a.m.:

THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL REMAIN ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A LARGE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING EASTWARD FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE BULK OF PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH A MIX OF CLOUDS AND SUN EXPECTED ACROSS VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK. POTENTIAL FOR RAIN INCREASES ON SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL VERMONT.

The rest of the forecast disco looks far better than just a couple days ago, though ultimate location of the sharp precip gradient will be critical. In short, fingers crossed for Magic as well as MRG ...

Anyway, now my main question is how the snow will set up for Saturday. For the valleys NWS saying highs today in upper 40s and tomorrow around 50, lows tonight and tomorrow night in low 30s. Summits forecast has slightly lower highs but same lows. The computer-generated mountain point forecast for Mt Ellen only goes through tomorrow afternoon and indicates a high in the upper 30s.

I'm thinking it should be a decent setup even if lows tomorrow night don't convincingly break below freezing. And Saturday is supposed to be mostly cloudy with highs in 40s so it shouldn't get slushy.

 

[hammer]

Anyway, now my main question is how the snow will set up for Saturday. For the valleys NWS saying highs today in upper 40s and tomorrow around 50, lows tonight and tomorrow night in low 30s. Summits forecast has slightly lower highs but same lows. The computer-generated mountain point forecast for Mt Ellen only goes through tomorrow afternoon and indicates a high in the upper 30s.

I'm thinking it should be a decent setup even if lows tomorrow night don't convincingly break below freezing. And Saturday is supposed to be mostly cloudy with highs in 40s so it shouldn't get slushy.

Same thinking here now...my guess/hope is that, while the ungroomed will be a bit firm for my skill level, if the groomers do their job properly the groomed surfaces will be OK.

 

[polski]

Same thinking here now...my guess/hope is that, while the ungroomed will be a bit firm for my skill level, if the groomers do their job properly the groomed surfaces will be OK.

yes although with no deep freeze for at least a couple nights beforehand, maybe the ungroomed won't start out all that firm. There's a bit of a balancing act here but I think this is looking pretty promising, the more I think about it. Curious to see any reports from today & tomorrow.

Even if it isn't perfect I'll be psyched to be skiing on a weekend I thought would be lost - not just lost but potentially disastrous. And I bet it won't be too crowded.

 

[TeleMac]

Mad Card -- just a reminder NATO TeleFest

If you are thinking of skiing MRG, it will a zoo, although a fun zoo.

 

[WWF-VT]

Polski – TeleMac makes a good point on the crowd potential at MRG with the Telefest. You can always tale a left onto German Flats Road and hit Mt Ellen.

 

[polski]

yeah although with some rain still in the forecast Saturday for Boston/other SNE points, and with some people maybe having already written off skiing this weekend - as I had, until this a.m. - perhaps it won't be zoo-level packed. In any event, my legs can only take so much MRG spring skiing so I don't care if I'm spending some time in liftlines. (and as a shareholder I like to see crowds/revenues ...)

But I'm not going to overthink this. I'm going skiing at MRG when the base is deep and the surface should be at least decent. I will have fun.

 

[polski]

I missed TeleMac's headline and forgot the TeleFest. You know what? I don't care. I'm going there anyway. (I'm pretty much limited to weekend skiing at this point and won't have many other opportunities to use the Mad Card. Plus, I'll be with at least one of my sons and they have the free season passes at MRG)

 

[jrmagic]

Wow I am liking this revised forcast. I was on the fence about heading up this weekend but its looking way better than I was expecting. I do think we will cacel our cookout in front of the condos though and save that for a sunnier day.

 

[mikestaple]

Each day Boston weather continues to move out when the rain will start. They are now guessing the heavy stuff (I live south of Boston and they are saying up to 4 inches) won't begin until late Saturday night. So Saturday seems to be a safe bet for most ski areas.

 

[polski]

OK, I guess I'd consider Ragged as an alternative for Saturday as I have cheap vouchers/freebies to burn there too, considerably shorter drive and because my 9-year-old has not skied the Ravine yet. But interested only if there's a high likelihood the glades will be soft enough to ski; with overnight lows in central NH forecast for upper 20s and no sun Saturday with highs into the 40s, I'm not sure about that. Weather gurus, what say you?

 

[WinnChill]

OK, I guess I'd consider Ragged as an alternative for Saturday as I have cheap vouchers/freebies to burn there too, considerably shorter drive and because my 9-year-old has not skied the Ravine yet. But interested only if there's a high likelihood the glades will be soft enough to ski; with overnight lows in central NH forecast for upper 20s and no sun Saturday with highs into the 40s, I'm not sure about that. Weather gurus, what say you?

Saturday is looking pretty good for most areas--rain will be slow to creep into MA through the day so Ragged (heck, even Crotched/Pats Peak) would be in good shape until overnight and mostly for Sunday.

 

[frozencorn]

Is Monday looking like a washout most everywhere? Was angling on maybe a Bush day.

 

[WinnChill]

Should be clearing Monday but the nature of these cut-off systems are to take their time doing so. With SB being furthest from this system you have a pretty good shot at a dry day

 

[riverc0il]

yes although with no deep freeze for at least a couple nights beforehand, maybe the ungroomed won't start out all that firm

I don't think skiing will be much fun before 10a in NoVT. Even without a hard freeze, if the snow has moisture due to warm highs the day before, it is going to ski firm even if it does not completely freeze over.

 

[thetrailboss]

No washout up here!!!!!

 

[polski]

I don't think skiing will be much fun before 10a in NoVT. Even without a hard freeze, if the snow has moisture due to warm highs the day before, it is going to ski firm even if it does not completely freeze over.

Thanks. One dilemma re MRG is possible need to not get there too late, solely for parking reasons with NATO going on ... normally I'd be happy to leave here at like 7 or 8 and start spring skiing late morning, but not sure that would be prudent tomorrow. Maybe get there by 9ish and burn some Mad Money on a big leisurely breakfast ...

My bigger concern is whether the woods will soften by afternoon. If I had good confidence in that happening, I might opt for Ragged. If we're going to be limited mostly to trails, MRG.

 

[hammer]

Saturday is looking pretty good for most areas--rain will be slow to creep into MA through the day so Ragged (heck, even Crotched/Pats Peak) would be in good shape until overnight and mostly for Sunday.

Is that still the case or are there any last-minute changes?

 

[WinnChill]

Is that still the case or are there any last-minute changes?

So far so good.

 

[hammer]

So far so good.

Thanks...trying to prevent analysis paralysis at this point...

 

[Glenn]

Winter Storm Watch just issued for Southern VT!