Winter Forecast 2015-2016

[JDMRoma]

Like Alex. Hope he gets to ride.

Wonder if he needs help ?
We could volunteer !

Yes hope he can get some time on the snow. We can live vicariously through his adventures !


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[timmyc]

...

 

[ScottySkis]

http://www.upstatesnow.com/weather/news-story/final-call-winter-forecast-2015-16/#
Snow after January .

 

[Rowsdower]

Will really depend on when/if this El Nino weakens enough to let cold air back down.

Still hoping we see a pattern change in January but its not looking very rosy right now.

 

[ALLSKIING]

Will really depend on when/if this El Nino weakens enough to let cold air back down.

Still hoping we see a pattern change in January but its not looking very rosy right now.

I'm no weather man but I'm hearing of a pattern change by the end of the holidays by multiple sites.

 

[slatham]

Re: accuweather - Paul has really been leaning on the CFS model - and persistence - but he's been right. Weatherbell still believes a pattern change will slowly evolve and is using the Canadian, JMA and their analogs to support the argument. The interesting thing is they're not too different - Weatherbell has warmer than usual December for instance, but does come in colder in Jan. They both think the core of the winter is Feb.

But we must all keep one very important fact in mind - it can snow a TON with average temps ABOVE normal! But we do we need a bit of a pattern change where the unusually high heights over the NE and into Eastern Canada move Northwest toward west shore of Hudson Bay and allow the cold air to filter down while lower heights and storms can move east and up the coast. This is what some of the models are showing, but the CFS is not one of them. So we'll have to see which solution the models gravitate toward over the next couple of weeks. But there is way more than a glimmer of hope for a good winter, however frustrating things are as of today.

 

[Tin]

Looking good for the mountains of NH for base building.

 

[Not Sure]

Pattern Change 16 days and counting!!!!!!
http://www.weatherbell.com/saturday-summary-december-5-2015

 

[JDMRoma]

Pattern Change 16 days and counting!!!!!!
http://www.weatherbell.com/saturday-summary-december-5-2015

Early Christmas Present !


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[catsup948]

Looks very tranquil for the northeast until then. Days and days of nice sunshine and mild temps. It likely will be cold enough at night to make snow though.

 

[dlague]

That was interesting to listen too! Surprised no one is biting on what he talks about at the end.


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[Puck it]

That was interesting to listen too! Surprised no one is biting on what he talks about at the end.


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99% of the scientific community agrees.



they just don't tell what they agree one!

 

[BenedictGomez]

Northeastern warmth not relinquishing its' grip.

 

[dlague]

It looks like we have another week and a half of this. At least it is cold enough by night in the northern parts of New England!

 

[JDMRoma]

May have to burn a few more K 2 Fer s next weekend !


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[andrec10]

This just sucks! We are being punished for the last 2 years! Lol...

 

[billski]

I don't give a crap about the weather until January 1st. December is always one of those months where you win big or lose big. I'm moving my modus operundi to a start late end late regimen. Ski through the last day. Go for deep. Milk the woods at Jay until the end.
Remember that year when December was big and January sucked? I'll take the opposite. I have so many family and work commitments in December that I miss out every year.

 

[Puck it]

I don't give a crap about the weather until January 1st. December is always one of those months where you win big or lose big. I'm moving my modus operundi to a start late end late regimen. Ski through the last day. Go for deep. Milk the woods at Jay until the end.
Remember that year when December was big and January sucked? I'll take the opposite. I have so many family and work commitments in December that I miss out every year.

We don't care about your committments, some of us want to ski from Late Oct. to Mid May.

 

[VTKilarney]

I don't give a crap about the weather until January 1st. December is always one of those months where you win big or lose big. I'm moving my modus operundi to a start late end late regimen. Ski through the last day. Go for deep. Milk the woods at Jay until the end.
Remember that year when December was big and January sucked? I'll take the opposite. I have so many family and work commitments in December that I miss out every year.

While I generally agree with this statement, my biggest concern is that if we don't get decent natural snowfall, the resorts have lost a month of snowmaking weather.

 

[slatham]

Be mindful of that NOAA graphic. That is simply the probability of it being above/below normal. Nothing about magnitude. That said the models that spit out an actual forecast are showing consistent warmth for the next week+. Maybe we get a step down to cooler temps later in the month but I've seen nothing that even hints at normal, much less below normal. Now of course it can snow like mad and be above normal!