Winter Forecast 2015-2016

[drjeff]

That seems really optimistic given the trends setting up this season. Its still early of course. Looking forward to a good February to save things as usual.

When I was in DC last week for a convention, I saw the same map that BG posted for the mid-Atlantic states that one of the local TV Mets was discussing in his "winter forecast segment. He was stressing that he DIDN'T think that this winter would have the prolonged cold like we had last year, but that the likely hood was based on models that the ingredients for a few sizeable storms would be there, especially after mid January, and as a result the chances of it being a "snowy" winter were better than average. He then said that unlike last year where once it snowed, it stayed around for a while, that this year there will more than likely be some warm storms intermixed with the cold storms to melt away some of what falls rather than piling more snow on top of multiple previous storms snowfalls. He seemed to think that the atmospheric "battleground" between the warm air to the South and the cold air from the North would tend to generally be near that region, especially during the 2nd half of the winter months

 

[wtcobb]

Article from AJ detailing the El Nino - new record set for average Pacific temps:

http://adventure-journal.com/2015/11/el-nino-just-broke-a-record-now-what/

 

[yeggous]

When I was in DC last week for a convention, I saw the same map that BG posted for the mid-Atlantic states that one of the local TV Mets was discussing in his "winter forecast segment. He was stressing that he DIDN'T think that this winter would have the prolonged cold like we had last year, but that the likely hood was based on models that the ingredients for a few sizeable storms would be there, especially after mid January, and as a result the chances of it being a "snowy" winter were better than average. He then said that unlike last year where once it snowed, it stayed around for a while, that this year there will more than likely be some warm storms intermixed with the cold storms to melt away some of what falls rather than piling more snow on top of multiple previous storms snowfalls. He seemed to think that the atmospheric "battleground" between the warm air to the South and the cold air from the North would tend to generally be near that region, especially during the 2nd half of the winter months

So another words he forecasted the climatological mean? Ballsy.


Sent from my iPhone using AlpineZone mobile app

 

[Rowsdower]

So another words he forecasted the climatological mean? Ballsy.


Sent from my iPhone using AlpineZone mobile app

If there's a lot of temperature variation it'll mean a raw, icy season, especially down here in the Poconos and Catskills. You can have an "average" year with a lot of variability.

 

[Not Sure]

If there's a lot of temperature variation it'll mean a raw, icy season, especially down here in the Poconos and Catskills. You can have an "average" year with a lot of variability.

So this year will be all about timing, get the goods while there fresh.

 

[bigbog]

A market for liftline armor.... Just bull your way to the front of the line...I can see it now:lol:

 

[Not Sure]

A toofer! Great self arrest gear!

A market for liftline armor.... Just bull your way to the front of the line...I can see it now:lol:

 

[bigbog]

:lol::lol:

 

[JimG.]

If there's a lot of temperature variation it'll mean a raw, icy season, especially down here in the Poconos and Catskills. You can have an "average" year with a lot of variability.

Eastern skiers eat raw and icy for lunch.

 

[andrec10]

Eastern skiers eat raw and icy for lunch.

Keep those edges sharp Boys and Girls!

 

[BenedictGomez]

If there's a lot of temperature variation it'll mean a raw, icy season, especially down here in the Poconos and Catskills. You can have an "average" year with a lot of variability.

The Poconos may potentially have a terrible ski season. Mixed periods of warm until mid-December than possibly a January thaw would be awful for them.

 

[ScottySkis]

The Poconos may potentially have a terrible ski season. Mixed periods of warm until mid-December than possibly a January thaw would be awful for them.

Sure who knows for really what will happen before it happens. Hoping for elk to make snow only oa place I might ski if I ski. L

 

[steamboat1]

So this year will be all about timing, get the goods while there fresh.

So what else is new?

Same chit different day.

 

[Rowsdower]

Mixed periods of warm until mid-December than possibly a January thaw would be awful for them.

So in other words, a typical season? The real issue is if we get a consistently cold/snowy February. Good years the Poconos can have great conditions in February.

 

[Not Sure]

Possible Storm next week!
http://www.weatherbell.com/saturday-summary-november-21-2015

 

[ScottySkis]

Possible Storm next week!
http://www.weatherbell.com/saturday-summary-november-21-2015[/QUOTn hope their correct. We need this. For me for NY areas?

 

[skiberg]

Best thing in that forecast is "Often November in El Nino years can be the opposite of how the rest of the winter goes." Keep em crossed.

 

[Tin]

Next Tues-Thursday....

 

[ScottySkis]

Next Tues-Thursday....

for all Catskills or new England.

 

[BenedictGomez]