Winter Forecast 2015-2016

[wtcobb]

It'll be hard on other businesses in the area, too. No visitors means no shoppers and diners. Rough times for businesses in the north country...

The warmth down south compounds the problem. When it's sunny and warm in Boston people don't get the "itch" to ski, even if the mountains are open.

 

[Bostonian]

This says it all.

 

[billski]

what does "cold" mean? 40's? Won't take much to reach the "coldest day of December"

Back to stage one.

 

[skiberg]

[h=3]Still no change at Tremblant. Can you imagine. December 15 and no measurable snow yet for the year!!!

Snowfall[/h]as of 12/15/15 @1:22 pm EST 0cm 24 Hrs
0cm 48 Hrs
0cm 7 Days
0cm Season Total

 

[Edd]

My big concern at this point is with the assumed financial bloodbath the resorts will experience over the holidays, how does that affect the rest of season operations?

Will snowmaking budgets get slashed at numerous areas and available terrain be limited most of the rest of the season short of help from natural snow. Areas closing early in spring to mitigate losses. I'm sure K will still go deep, but many others may close earlier than normal.

Additional issues include keeping snow makers, lifties, and others around while having minimal (if any) tasks to give them. All right before Xmas hits.

 

[billski]

We had a really bad Christmas season a number of years back. Luckily they made up for it with the President's week and ended up breaking even. Investments for the following season would be limited I expect.

 

[billski]

 

[goldsbar]

My big concern at this point is with the assumed financial bloodbath the resorts will experience over the holidays, how does that affect the rest of season operations?

Will snowmaking budgets get slashed at numerous areas and available terrain be limited most of the rest of the season short of help from natural snow. Areas closing early in spring to mitigate losses. I'm sure K will still go deep, but many others may close earlier than normal.

Same concern. No idea what some of the Poconos resorts will do. Tough enough for them to make snow in a decent year.

 

[billski]

 

[Tin]

Keep your legs in shape folks. When winter arrives, it will be good. No point in looking at forecasts until after Christmas.

 

[john1200c]

I agree, its going to be a blood bath. I think like 30% of total revenue is related to Christmas Week. Going to be a lot of financial fallout from this. This is one year when Cannon is lucky. Any loss goes in to the general fund and will have much less if any impact upon them.

I wonder if the "for profit" areas hedge with some sort of weather derivative? I would if I were in the business...

 

[billski]

Keep your legs in shape folks. When winter arrives, it will be good. No point in looking at forecasts until after Christmas.

In the gym every day. Last think I need is getting out there and not being able to handle it!

 

[VTKilarney]

Oddly enough, the ski areas that haven't even tried to make snow (I'm looking at you Magic Mountain) may fare better than areas that have. I find it hard to believe that many areas are making money when you factor in the cost of all of the snow that is about to melt.

 

[BenedictGomez]

Winter Starts Now?

That Warren Miller guy's fully of ****.

 

[BenedictGomez]

Oddly enough, the ski areas that haven't even tried to make snow (I'm looking at you Magic Mountain) may fare better than areas that have.

I mentioned this several weeks back, that I was surprised when resorts in the Poconos and even the Cats to a certain extent, were bothering with snowmaking. The degree to which we've blowtorch'ed is surprising, but the fact we're WAY out of the 30s and 40s is not. IMO, many resorts need to become more sophisticated in terms of predicting the weather.

I wonder if the "for profit" areas hedge with some sort of weather derivative? I would if I were in the business...

That's a great question. My guess is, if they do it likely relates to energy pricing.

 

[drjeff]

I mentioned this several weeks back, that I was surprised when resorts in the Poconos and even the Cats to a certain extent, were bothering with snowmaking. The degree to which we've blowtorch'ed is surprising, but the fact we're WAY out of the 30s and 40s is not. IMO, many resorts need to become more sophisticated in terms of predicting the weather.

As far as weather forecasting has come, it's still such an inexact science that there are times, especially early season when the push to get as much terrain open for the Christmas/New Years Holiday week is so great, that a resort just has to take chances at times, since I think we've all seen forecast where it look promising to get a wet bulb temp below 28 degrees where it stays at 29 or 30 and also times when it looks like the wet bulb won't get below 30 and it ends up at 27.

If it's close mid season when a resort has 85-90% of it's desired base snow down for the season and your looking at a marginal forecast, then it's easy to make the call not to charge the lines, early season, not so easy, and I think that every GM and Mtn Ops person out there when they make the call to fire up the system early season does so with the knowledge that it very well could melt out before the product gets used... The ski industry isn't for the weak of hearts at times for sure!

 

[ss20]

A "disaster" Christmas week would be the December we're currently having with a frigid November that allowed all areas north of NJ to open. Then to have all of it melt would be financially devastating. but most mountains south of the VT/NH/Mass line haven't made snow at all or only did a night or two of snowmaking. Not going to lose a lot of $$$ there. Hopefully they were able to train new snowmakers that night and new instructors the next day.

While it's going to be a terrible Christmas for skiers, the financials*could've* been worse.

 

[VTKilarney]

Here is a good primer on northeast winter weather forecasting:
https://www.bostonglobe.com/metro/2...predictions/cbUpaZTK2AvDOPTnFGnT4J/story.html

 

[dlague]

Winter Starts Now?

That Warren Miller guy's fully of ****.

Haha true!


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[Not Sure]

Haha true!


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Well ...West coast anyway , at least they are getting some lovin . They paid there dues the last few years.