Winter Forecast 2015-2016

[St. Bear]

I'll take it. After the past two winters, less cold is a good thing.

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Especially since a lot of the ridging that brought the intense cold is often responsible for storms missing the 40/70 benchmark for big storms.

 

[ss20]

Especially since a lot of the ridging that brought the intense cold is often responsible for storms missing the 40/70 benchmark for big storms.

This will be the third season I've followed this weather sub-forum. All of my meteorological knowledge has come from here. That being said... please translate into somewhat-laymen's terms that are above Weather Channel terminology but below the level of BenedictGomez and the like.

 

[VTKilarney]

Everything has to average out.


.

 

[St. Bear]

This will be the third season I've followed this weather sub-forum. All of my meteorological knowledge has come from here. That being said... please translate into somewhat-laymen's terms that are above Weather Channel terminology but below the level of BenedictGomez and the like.

This is my understanding of it. Someone please correct me if I'm wrong.

Look at this pic

http://apps.startribune.com/blogs/user_images/500Tue.jpg

Don't pay attention to the exact location of the Low, but look how it creates front lines that run up the East Coast. That's how you get big storms in this part of the country. It pulls cold air from Canada at the same time that it pulls moisture from the ocean.

If you move that low a hundred miles or so East, and New England is no longer in the vertical front lines, the air will be colder, but the front will block access to the moisture and most of the storm will be pushed out to sea. So you may get some snow, but not the blockbuster storms.

This is also partly responsible for why Southern New England has done so well the past few years. The low was over northern/central New England, and southern area was located at the front boundaries.

 

[dlague]

This is my understanding of it. Someone please correct me if I'm wrong.

Look at this pic

http://apps.startribune.com/blogs/user_images/500Tue.jpg

Don't pay attention to the exact location of the Low, but look how it creates front lines that run up the East Coast. That's how you get big storms in this part of the country. It pulls cold air from Canada at the same time that it pulls moisture from the ocean.

If you move that low a hundred miles or so East, and New England is no longer in the vertical front lines, the air will be colder, but the front will block access to the moisture and most of the storm will be pushed out to sea. So you may get some snow, but not the blockbuster storms.

This is also partly responsible for why Southern New England has done so well the past few years. The low was over northern/central New England, and southern area was located at the front boundaries.

or

Collect moisture from the pacific
then moves into cold arctic air that plunges south
collect more moisture fron the gulf
shoot up the eastern cost to NE and dump!

 

[Abubob]

All the predictions in one place:

http://opensnow.com/news/post/el-ni...ternal&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=20150831

 

[Not Sure]

Like Winter forecast Eh..get your Tukes out
http://www.theweathernetwork.com/news/articles/winter-weather-forecast-preview-2015-canada/56510/

 

[Not Sure]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vVxZe82uy4Y

This forecast Sucks! The've been right alot but there due for a screw up. Pattern has Alaska in a cold pattern, no accounting for the blob.

 

[Abubob]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vVxZe82uy4Y

This forecast Sucks! The've been right alot but there due for a screw up. Pattern has Alaska in a cold pattern, no accounting for the blob.

I love the economic forecast that goes along with this. They could add with the sucky winter forecast for 2015-16 that winter clothing and equipment will see record low prices for spring 2016!

 

[Not Sure]

http://wxedge.com/2015/09/15/winter-2015-2016-weather-forecast/

A little Better......

 

[BBMF]

fingers crossed:

https://scontent-iad3-1.xx.fbcdn.ne...=896dbffb5c4d129f8c751a6642777f5c&oe=568C3B81

 

[moresnow]

fingers crossed:

https://scontent-iad3-1.xx.fbcdn.ne...=896dbffb5c4d129f8c751a6642777f5c&oe=568C3B81

You can uncross them.
http://myfox8.com/2014/09/08/record-shattering-snowfall-this-winter-not-so-fast/

 

[catsup948]

Especially since a lot of the ridging that brought the intense cold is often responsible for storms missing the 40/70 benchmark for big storms.

Good point. Having as active a jet stream as last year but with less cold would make for an interesting winter in the mountains. I would bet places closer to the coast that got piles of snow last year will get their fair share of both rain and snow in an active pattern. Who knows though it could be super cold and DC gets crushed.

 

[dlague]

Good point. Having as active a jet stream as last year but with less cold would make for an interesting winter in the mountains. I would bet places closer to the coast that got piles of snow last year will get their fair share of both rain and snow in an active pattern. Who knows though it could be super cold and DC gets crushed.

Just as long as the less cold does not translate into January thaws. That is what was great about last season - minimal thawing.

 

[yeggous]

Just as long as the less cold does not translate into January thaws. That is what was great about last season - minimal thawing.

So you want your cake and to eat it too?


Sent from my iPhone using AlpineZone mobile app

 

[dlague]

So you want your cake and to eat it too?


Sent from my iPhone using AlpineZone mobile app

Hell ya! All snow and no r@!n Keep it cold!

 

[slatham]

The forecasts I have seen all point to a good winter in the NE if not as cold and r@#* free as last winter. Also I'd say that overall confidence is lower than last year (or 2) given El Nino. But it looks to NOT be a typical El Nino year (which are often bad in the NE) due to numerous factors, several of which were in play last year (or 2) and helped with the cold (PDO for instance). Worth a web search for more details.

These forecasts look nothing like the links above which shows an image far far away from the official forecasts I've seen or any model run for that matter.

Check out Accuweather and Weatherbell for starters.

 

[catsup948]

Exactly. Winter without thaws like the last are rare. I'm excited to see how it all plays out.

 

[ss20]

She'll be comin' round the mountain when she comes...

She'll be comin' round the mountain when she comes...

 

[ScottySkis]

She'll be comin' round the mountain when she comes...

She'll be comin' round the mountain when she comes...

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No snow what will we due ha he.