Winter Forecast 2015-2016

[Rowsdower]

Yeah, looks like early season will be a wash at this point.

I won't complain as long as we get a solid second half of the season.

 

[BenedictGomez]

November is here, which means one thing.

You can now actually start to pay attention to winter 2015-2016 forecasts as possibly having some hints of accuracy, as opposed to solely existing to drive web traffic, click-throughs, and marketing dollars.

 

[dlague]

This blows!

http://www.accuweather.com/en/weath...november-warmup-western-chill-stormy/53299849

 

[Puck it]

This winter blows!!!!!! Oh wait it is still Fall!

 

[Abubob]

November is here, which means one thing.

You can now actually start to pay attention to winter 2015-2016 forecasts as possibly having some hints of accuracy, as opposed to solely existing to drive web traffic, click-throughs, and marketing dollars.

 

[Rowsdower]

I mean, November does look like it will come through warmer than we'd like. Will have to hope some sustained cold comes in by mid-December.

Personally, anything before mid/late January is gravy to me. Early season is always hit or miss.

 

[BenedictGomez]

Joe Cioffi's first attempt at a winter forecast is out. He's a good met and very conservative, not a hyping bomb-tossing alarmist.

I am going to lean toward the idea that the winter will make occasional appearances between now and the end of December. An early snowfall will hinge on whether the N.A.O. goes negative over the last 6 weeks of the year. If it does I think we will get a couple of chances. Otherwise we will have to wait until late December or Early January for the El Nino to weaken enough to allow the other factors to come into play. So I will forecast temperatures to average closer to normal when you net it all out with a bias toward a little below normal. Snowfall will probably be closer to normal and lower than the last 2 winters but well above the El Nino years where snowfall was very low. I also believe that unlike the last 2 winters where the cold patterns were long and unrelenting, I believe there will be more variability this winter with warmer and colder stretches of shorter duration. With regards to “the big one” we know that all it will take is one of those to throw the snowfall forecast completely out the window but I do believe there will be one or two threats that will look like “classic” threats for big events as I expect the N.A.O. to be more of a factor than in past winters. When you look at the past it is natural to expect a sub par winter since most of them actually are in one respect or another. They can’t all be cold with non stop blizzards. At this point I want to state that there is a high probability that my forecast is going to go wrong somehow on any one or all of these factors. I don’t see the practicality of providing a long range view with some many variables that even those with PHD’s have a difficult time understanding. Sure if you are a natural gas or oil trader you might want to set up trades or perhaps if your business is weather dependent you might want to take some sort of hedging strategies. But for the average person, you have to buy a coat, gloves, and a scarf and maybe chop a little less or a little more firewood. Perhaps you might top off your oil tank before a cold blast. Other than that you are stuck here. It is not as if you are going to sell your house and move for a colder than normal winter. Many of you have been asking me for a winter forecast. I do this kicking and screaming but now you have it. It will be in the archive here for anyone to pull it up and throw it back at me which every way it goes. And yes I will probably update this somewhere along the way because, as I have tried to show over the last year, forecasting is a journey and not a single event.

 

[Not Sure]

http://www.weatherbell.com/

Very encouraging words from JB ! , Check out Saturday video update on the page

 

[yeggous]

http://www.weatherbell.com/

Very encouraging words from JB ! , Check out Saturday video update on the page

That dude is batshit. He just likes to hear himself speak. Yes, that is my professional opinion.

As for the winter forecast, he is correct that this a non-traditional central Pacific ENSO. That does favorite a less terrible winter for skiers. My best guess is we'll see a crazy roller coaster winter.

 

[mriceyman]

That dude is batshit. He just likes to hear himself speak. Yes, that is my professional opinion.

As for the winter forecast, he is correct that this a non-traditional central Pacific ENSO. That does favorite a less terrible winter for skiers. My best guess is we'll see a crazy roller coaster winter.

Everyone will be wishing for the cold we had last year


Sent from my iPhone using AlpineZone

 

[dlague]

Roller coaster? I really hope not. Thaw then freeze thaw then freeze really sucks. Lots of scraped off conditions develop. I just want the cold to be here.


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[Tin]

Enough snow but lots of freeze-thaw cycles seems to be a popular theme. Learn to sharpen your own edges.

 

[Puck it]

I think I need a trip out west!!!!!!!!

 

[dlague]

I think I need a trip out west!!!!!!!!

Wonder if they are going to have a repeat? Last year they got plenty of snow early and then dried up if I recall. Then March took over.

 

[ALLSKIING]

Everyone will be wishing for the cold we had last year


Sent from my iPhone using AlpineZone

That long lasting cold is rare in the north east.

 

[moresnow]

Enough snow but lots of freeze-thaw cycles seems to be a popular theme. Learn to sharpen your own edges.

So you're saying we are going to have a typical winter.

 

[andrec10]

BTW, this warm weather SUCKS!!!

 

[bigbog]

Don't know if they're officially open yet but Big Sky has 20"...:roll:

Difficult to judge by anything before January...

 

[dlague]

Enough snow but lots of freeze-thaw cycles seems to be a popular theme. Learn to sharpen your own edges.

Got the sharpening thing down - sliced my thumb open while doing it.

 

[dlague]

Don't know if they're officially open yet but Big Sky has 20"...:roll:

Difficult to judge by anything before January...

Heck - it is hard to judge anything in January! Just do not know what will be delivered weather wise!