Winter Forecast 2015-2016

[skibumski]

Uhhh..... well that escalated quickly into something completely different. Euro is now a fireball inside runner with much precipitation other than snow. Just a horrible, horrible, dreadful track. On a holiday week to boot. Thank god this is > 150 hours out, so it has time to show anything but that. I'd like to ski in Vermont this winter. Alternatively, maybe this is an outlier run and the ensemble mean will be very different.

Yesterday's MRG weather blog post foresaw this as a possibility. It really all depends on whether this trough sticks around long enough. If the Western Ridge stays strong for long enough to keep this arctic air bottled up here and the storm tracks south, we're money. If the storm goes north and inside, stick a fork in ski season because I don't think the cost benefit will be there to resurface other than putting down a minimum skiable top dressing for the holiday week.

I'm still optimistic because of how much the forecast for the warm up late next week has already relaxed and shortened.

 

[dlague]

Uhhh..... well that escalated quickly into something completely different. Euro is now a fireball inside runner with much precipitation other than snow. Just a horrible, horrible, dreadful track. On a holiday week to boot. Thank god this is > 150 hours out, so it has time to show anything but that. I'd like to ski in Vermont this winter. Alternatively, maybe this is an outlier run and the ensemble mean will be very different.

Well next Tuesday/Wednesday will be interesting or depressing. Southern NH about an inch of non frozen precip and Northern NH about an inch of freezing r@!n. Cannot catch a break!

 

[skiberg]

Not to pile on but PSNH on alert for "potential major rain storm next week that could affect the power grid."

 

[ChicoKat]

The fat lady has sung. Stick a forK in it. Ski season as we would like to see it is over. Go west to ski or wait for Moutain bike season.

I may not have to wait very long. This is beyond depressing. I think we need a new thread for emotional support.

 

[NYDB]

Every fucking storm comes in as rain or moves off the coast!! WTF!!

 

[BenedictGomez]

Not to pile on but PSNH on alert for "potential major rain storm next week that could affect the power grid."

Possibly ice storm even with warm upper levels. It's early though. Fingers crossed for a positive development. Hopefully it drifts east.

 

[skiberg]

How far north is this thing going to go? I am driving to Tremblant Minimum, North Pole it I have to.

 

[skibumski]

Keep in mind that the models have consistently missed the same clipper systems west for the past few weeks in the 6-10 day range. Remember all of those promising storms that drifted a little too far off shore? The same move from this system should be right in the white stuff sweet spot. Even the r@!n event from last week was slushier than expected. If the forecast still looks like this on Friday morning... then I'd be worried. Too early to panic a week out.

 

[WJenness]

Sigh...

Weather this season got me like:

Cashing in a vacation day tomorrow though, just in case.

That image didn't post well, so click this: http://i.imgur.com/vdLE8dJ.gif

 

[JDMRoma]

Sigh...

Weather this season got me like:

Cashing in a vacation day tomorrow though, just in case.

Yup same here, Thursday and Friday.and well freeze our asses off this weekend and then it's gonna friggen rain ! Constantly getting bitchbslapped this year.


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[ss20]

No offense to BG but he posted ONE possibility of this storm and everyone cried goat and got their panties in a twist.

A few things that I see...

1. This storm is quite far out still.
2. Previous EURO runs showed a totally different outcome and the GFS has no idea what this storm is doing.
3. 90% chance this thing ticks East...just like nearly every other east coast storm.
4. I don't buy the fact that we'll see a 60 degree temperature swing in 72 hours... from -15 degrees to 45 degrees.

BTW, Saturday is looking nicer and nicer with every run (precipitation wise).

 

[VTKilarney]

At this point we are fighting for scraps just like some destitute Dickens character. I've come to terms with the fact that this year is going to go down as being awful. If we get some decent snow, great. But I'm setting the bar low so I can be pleasantly surprised rather than continuously disappointed.

 

[skiberg]

Normally I would agree with you but when PSNH puts out a bulletin something is brewing.


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[skibumski]

No offense to BG but he posted ONE possibility of this storm and everyone cried goat and got their panties in a twist.

A few things that I see...

1. This storm is quite far out still.
2. Previous EURO runs showed a totally different outcome and the GFS has no idea what this storm is doing.
3. 90% chance this thing ticks East...just like nearly every other east coast storm.
4. I don't buy the fact that we'll see a 60 degree temperature swing in 72 hours... from -15 degrees to 45 degrees.

BTW, Saturday is looking nicer and nicer with every run (precipitation wise).

^^ Agree completely. Also interesting that the Canadian also has this thing much farther east already -- actually too far. Somewhere in the middle is probably the sweet spot, but another offshore miss is still preferable to the wet stuff.

PSNH is looking at the same models as everyone else and trying to be prepared. It's no wonder the bulletin came out right after the terrible ECMWF.

 

[BenedictGomez]

No offense to BG but he posted ONE possibility of this storm and everyone cried goat and got their panties in a twist.

A few things that I see...

1. This storm is quite far out still. I said that.
2. Previous EURO runs showed a totally different outcome and the GFS has no idea what this storm is doing. I said that.
3. 90% chance this thing ticks East...just like nearly every other east coast storm. Actually, almost every storm this winter has ticked west of guidance, not east of guidance, with the exception of the two that just moved through.
4. I don't buy the fact that we'll see a 60 degree temperature swing in 72 hours... from -15 degrees to 45 degrees.

It's a model output, not a forecast. That's what we do here, we discuss the model's predictions ahead of time so we know (ideally, hopefully, doesn't always work out) what's up.

At this point we are fighting for scraps just like some destitute Dickens character. I've come to terms with the fact that this year is going to go down as being awful. If we get some decent snow, great. But I'm setting the bar low so I can be pleasantly surprised rather than continuously disappointed.

Agree 100%. This season has been so bad that we cannot recover even to the average. Even if we get some awesome snows from now until the end, it's going to be a below average (at best) to absolutely horrendous (at worst) season.

 

[moguler6]

This sucks. I'm going to start rooting for worst winter. According to Killington's web site their worst season since 1988 is 152" in 2012. They're at 34". I think we got it!

 

[ss20]

For the record, the latest GFS just put down 6-12 inches for areas north of I-84 spanning from the Poconos up to and through Maine. Northern VT and northern NH get screwed... because it's running too far East.

And if I'm still awake and post the results from the 11pm/00z GFS everything will be different.

The good news is that the GFS is finally on board with this system.

 

[Tin]

Given every system being further NW this cuts in and gives everyone rain lol. Seriously though, it's something to watch. Hopeful for a massive Berkie or Magic snow day once this year.

 

[Tin]

And just for giggles, the Hab...clearly something brewing.

 

[BenedictGomez]

This sucks. I'm going to start rooting for worst winter. According to Killington's web site their worst season since 1988 is 152" in 2012. They're at 34". I think we got it!

Wow, that's all? I have way more than that in central/western NJ, and I live at < 400 feet!

Given every system being further NW this cuts in and gives everyone rain lol. Seriously though, it's something to watch. Hopeful for a massive Berkie or Magic snow day once this year.

Well, not everyone. Frankly, I'd take the GFS or the Canadian all day over what the Euro and the UK are predicting, which is doom and gloom. If you offered me OTS right now, I'd take that, like surrender in blackjack to avoid the directly over Burlington track. If this GFS verified, ADK, Vermont, and New Hampshire would get screwed yet again, but at least the Poconos, Cats, and Berk would get some snow. Still a Lonnnnnnng way off though.