Winter Forecast 2015-2016

[catsup948]

18z GFS was very nice for the Berkshires. It has a low pretty close to the benchmark, Euro has a more amped low going over Burlington. Maybe we can get something in between and a big hit for western New England

 

[catsup948]

This would be the end for me if it's all rain. This winter has worn me down. Break out the sunscreen and board shorts!

 

[ss20]

After looking at the GFS out to 384 hours for shits and giggles... all I'm gonna say is... we're got a lotof shots for precipitation. Alright class? Who can guess the key word in that sentence? Precipitation.

In all seriousness, it's a good thing these things are wrong whenever they're ~100 hours+ out, or else I'd call Noah and get the Ark built NOW!

 

[BenedictGomez]

00z GFS is in, and it shifts west, expands precipitation shield, fantastic run for all of ski country.

Ironically, while this appears to be awesome, I fear this might be bad news.

EDIT:

Canuck comes west too, Gore / Whiteface jackpot were it to happen. S.VT and parts of NH wouldnt be all snow, and this could be ugly for Poconos and Cats.

 

[catsup948]

00z GFS is in, and it shifts west, expands precipitation shield, fantastic run for all of ski country.

Ironically, while this appears to be awesome, I fear this might be bad news.

Big time run for the snow starved nne resorts. Let's stop this moving west right here! Hopefully the Euro goes east from the mid day run.

 

[catsup948]

Canadian not as amped but sorta ugly for some and great for northern vt. Runs the low from NYC to Presque isle. This has many runs to go. Should be a lot of fun to watch unfold.

 

[boofenstien]

Crossing fingers, heading to Owl's Head Sutton mid-week then smuggs for the weekend.

 

[Tin]

West again at 06z. Let's hope that movement stops ASAP.

Globals have been god awful this year though. Less used models seem to be doing quite well. And, dare I say, the NAM has been juiced but better with tracks.

 

[catsup948]

West again at 06z. Let's hope that movement stops ASAP.

Globals have been god awful this year though. Less used models seem to be doing quite well. And, dare I say, the NAM has been juiced but better with tracks.

Yeah both the Euro and GFS haven't handled +nao well at all this winter. Hard to pin point a track when there isn't blocking.

 

[from_the_NEK]

Perfect...

At this point I'm almost rooting for a historically/comically bad winter

 

[skibumski]

25 inch totals forecast in ski country by some models and people still rooting for a bad winter...

We're on a razor's edge for sure but I'm still seeing more likely than not that this breaks the right way.

 

[from_the_NEK]

25 inch totals forecast in ski country by some models and people still rooting for a bad winter...

We're on a razor's edge for sure but I'm still seeing more likely than not that this breaks the right way.

The razor has been pretty good at cutting the totals to virtually nothing this year in these parts (northern VT). I'm not holding my breath that the trend is changing. I'm in the "I'll be pleasantly surprised" boat if we end up getting enough snow to actually do something with.

 

[drjeff]

After looking at the GFS out to 384 hours for shits and giggles... all I'm gonna say is... we're got a lotof shots for precipitation. Alright class? Who can guess the key word in that sentence? Precipitation.

In all seriousness, it's a good thing these things are wrong whenever they're ~100 hours+ out, or else I'd call Noah and get the Ark built NOW!

Those 384's are kind of like "OK, lets see what this bit of energy passing over our heads TODAY does after it's done the around the world tour once and comes back!" ;-)

As you said though, the key in the long range trends is that it looks ACTIVE for precipitation chances!! Time to start crossing fingers, toes, eyes, whatever you want to cross and make a few sacrifices to Ullr that the activity likely over the next few weeks in this part of the world will be heavy skewed to the snow side of the precipitation charts!!

 

[skifree]

anyone want to trade some xanax for my remaining lift tix?

 

[catsup948]

I wonder if this ends up being a very wet snowy bomb for the northern greens and the daks. I don't like the look for eastern New England.

 

[ChicoKat]

it could not look any worse...not sure this site is reliable

 

[skibumski]

Yep, the 12z GFS and Canadian didn't look too good. Still close to being okay but if it still looks this way tomorrow it's not looking good for white stuff.

 

[from_the_NEK]

uke:uke:uke:uke:
uke:uke:uke:uke:
uke:uke:uke:uke:

 

[BenedictGomez]

GFS and Canadian both cave to the Euro and Ukie.

Unless this changes, it's precisely the doom and gloom for all of ski country that I feared.

 

[Tin]

We fuked....