Winter Forecast 2015-2016

[slatham]

http://www.uvm.edu/~empact/data/gendateplot.php3?table=SummitStation&title=Mount+Mansfield+Summit+Station&xskip=7&xparam=Date&yparam=Depth&year%5B%5D=2009&width=800&height=600&smooth=0&csv=0&totals=0

I follow Joe Bastardi from Weatherbell. He's been bullish on this winter, has had a warm November in the forecast, and thinks it turns towards the end of the month. He has used several different years as analogs, including 2009. Today he posted a blog about Thanksgiving week starting to have some potential, and he mentioned how 2009 was similar - warm, no snow, and then it came. So I looked up the snowfall history from 2009 at the Mt Mansfield stake (see link) and low and behold: NADDA until 11/24, and then off to the races (I think we'd all agreed that a repeat of 2009 would be welcome). Thanksgiving was the 26th in 2009. Oh, and it's the 26th this year too.

I'll note several of the guys at Accuwether are also sensing a possible shift toward the end of the month, so its not just Joe.

Anyway, it cheered me up. Hope it helps you all too.

THINK SNOW!

 

[Rowsdower]

I haven't seen anyone predicting a shift until at least mid December, if not much later.

 

[Not Sure]

I haven't seen anyone predicting a shift until at least mid December, if not much later.

Weather bell 11/7 update on their home page.

 

[yeggous]

http://www.uvm.edu/~empact/data/gendateplot.php3?table=SummitStation&title=Mount+Mansfield+Summit+Station&xskip=7&xparam=Date&yparam=Depth&year%5B%5D=2009&width=800&height=600&smooth=0&csv=0&totals=0

I follow Joe Bastardi from Weatherbell. He's been bullish on this winter, has had a warm November in the forecast, and thinks it turns towards the end of the month. He has used several different years as analogs, including 2009. Today he posted a blog about Thanksgiving week starting to have some potential, and he mentioned how 2009 was similar - warm, no snow, and then it came. So I looked up the snowfall history from 2009 at the Mt Mansfield stake (see link) and low and behold: NADDA until 11/24, and then off to the races (I think we'd all agreed that a repeat of 2009 would be welcome). Thanksgiving was the 26th in 2009. Oh, and it's the 26th this year too.

I'll note several of the guys at Accuwether are also sensing a possible shift toward the end of the month, so its not just Joe.

Anyway, it cheered me up. Hope it helps you all too.

THINK SNOW!

They are not "sensing" anything. The ensembles have been moving the trough eastward from the Rockies to the midwest. Right now we're predicted to stay just on the warm side.

 

[〽❄❅]

http://6abc.com/weather/cecily-tynans-winter-weather-outlook-/1082334/

Febuary
Febuary
Febuary
Febuary
Febuary
Febuary
Febuary

 

[slatham]

The forecasters I follow who have been pointing to the end of November for a shift to colder eastern US are Paul Pastelak and Jack Boston from Accuweather, and Joe Bastardi and Joe D'Aleo from Weatherbell. I get access via subscription. I doubt what they have been talking about for the past several weeks+ has shown up in any "point and click" forecasts yet.

And to be specific, they are saying that a turn toward eastern US cold should start the week of November 23rd. Until then we are in fact very, very east of the cold trough, with way above normal temps. But this trough moves out/east and temps trend down, eventually getting below normal. While this might not lock in for weeks/months, its not going to transient like this weekends 48 hour cold snap.

So lets see what happens the weeks of 11/23 and 11/30 and on 12/7 we can determine whether they were onto something or not.

On a final note, they are also all saying that February into March is the time to watch for eastern cold/snow.

 

[BenedictGomez]

The ensembles have been moving the trough eastward from the Rockies to the midwest. Right now we're predicted to stay just on the warm side.

Yeah, looks like mid-December is as early as I'd want to get optimistic.

One things for sure, I wont be having a mid-February ski day in the Poconos on December 15th like I did a few years ago.

 

[BenedictGomez]

But since we're snow-starved for a while, here's some modeled western snow porn to feast your eyes upon.

 

[Puck it]

But since we're snow-starved for a while, here's some modeled western snow porn to feast your eyes upon.

PNW and Front Range of CO are lookng good!!!!

 

[Puck it]

And BC!!!!

 

[BenedictGomez]

Lehigh Valley weather folks I follow call for a good winter for the Pocono range and the Cats.

 

[Rowsdower]

That seems really optimistic given the trends setting up this season. Its still early of course. Looking forward to a good February to save things as usual.

 

[Tin]

Next Sunday-Tuesday is looking interesting...

 

[ALLSKIING]

Next Sunday-Tuesday is looking interesting...

Yes...seems like things are hopefully changing.

 

[dlague]

Next Sunday-Tuesday is looking interesting...

I saw that reported on the news tonight.


Sent from my iPhone using AlpineZone

 

[Puck it]

I saw that reported on the news tonight.


Sent from my iPhone using AlpineZone

Not seeing it. What is the change?

 

[ALLSKIING]

Not seeing it. What is the change?

I see snowmaking at night 8 out of 10 days....not a huge change but it's a start.

 

[steamboat1]

I see snowmaking tonight & tomorrow night. Wish we could skip Thurs.

 

[bigbog]

Mid-central Maine's high temps for today and for the rest of the week are in the mid-to-upper-40s. Last week's predictions were for 50s throughout the week, so I think Motha' Nature's moving in a positive direction....slowly, but it's still early.

 

[BenedictGomez]

That seems really optimistic given the trends setting up this season.

That would be heavily weighted from January forward.