Winter Forecast 2015-2016

[skiberg]

What's a big change? I don't see this on any forecasts unless you mean a return to more seasonable temps. I think we get on snow by turkey day, but it is not going to be pretty.

 

[Tin]

What's a big change? I don't see this on any forecasts unless you mean a return to more seasonable temps. I think we get on snow by turkey day, but it is not going to be pretty.

.
A coating or few inches for the mountains Sat-Sunday and then marginal snow making temps for the players. The windows don't look extended though. It beats mid 50s!

 

[yeggous]

And the wet bulbs are going to be marginal at best. Not a good situation at all.

 

[skiberg]

I'm just hoping for top to bottom at SR or maybe even BW. Not looking good for Cannon. Only good thing for Cannon is that they are wasting State money. Yes they have a budget, but not like blowing $ snowmaking will put them out of business. Once they are allowed to begin making snow, which is generally around mid-month, they can go for it pretty liberally.

 

[catsup948]

First winter storm or first winter tease?
View attachment 17802


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This is tease maybe. If storms like these actually happen this winter Central and northern Vermont is going to get destroyed and the upslope... Wow!

 

[yeggous]

This is tease maybe. If storms like these actually happen this winter Central and northern Vermont is going to get destroyed and the upslope... Wow!

That is a 10 day forecast. At those lead times there is a resolution shift in the GFS. Because of the model numerics there is a big upscale cascade of energy in the model. The result is unrealistically robust synoptic scale systems. These forecasts are useful only for ensemble products to investigate the probability of synoptic scale ridges and troughs.


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[catsup948]

That is a 10 day forecast. At those lead times there is a resolution shift in the GFS. Because of the model numerics there is a big upscale cascade of energy in the model. The result is unrealistically robust synoptic scale systems. These forecasts are useful only for ensemble products to investigate the probability of synoptic scale ridges and troughs.


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I wasn't commenting on this possible storm. I'm just saying Vermont could do well if these sorta storms were to happen.

 

[Abubob]

That is a 10 day forecast. At those lead times there is a resolution shift in the GFS. Because of the model numerics there is a big upscale cascade of energy in the model. The result is unrealistically robust synoptic scale systems. These forecasts are useful only for ensemble products to investigate the probability of synoptic scale ridges and troughs.

I agree with this (at least I think I do). Given that this is so long range of a forecast it really only gives a general idea of what patterns may emerge. Look at this taken from this morning's model of the same system, still almost 10 days out. Still a strong surge from the southern jet with an equal push of a mass of cold air.

 

[yeggous]

I agree with this (at least I think I do). Given that this is so long range of a forecast it really only gives a general idea of what patterns may emerge. Look at this taken from this morning's model of the same system, still almost 10 days out. Still a strong surge from the southern jet with an equal push of a mass of cold air.

If you're looking that far out, you really should be looking at the ensemble means averaged over a time window. Averaging over a number of ensemble members helps account for the fact that the system is non-linear and chaotic. Averaging over a time window helps wash out the influence of slight phasing errors of transient disturbances.

 

[Abubob]

If you're looking that far out, you really should be looking at the ensemble means averaged over a time window. Averaging over a number of ensemble members helps account for the fact that the system is non-linear and chaotic. Averaging over a time window helps wash out the influence of slight phasing errors of transient disturbances.

If I knew where to find these models I'd look them up. I also don't like the look of these forecasts. Are those for the same time period?

 

[yeggous]

If I knew where to find these models I'd look them up. I also don't like the look of these forecasts. Are those for the same time period?

Source page:
http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ewall.html
Specific image link:
http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/CMCNA_0z/hgtcomp.html

Yes, from left to right is the ECMWF, GFS, and CMC ensembles valid Thursday - Saturday of next week. As you can see, the signal is very robust. The contour lines are ensemble mean 500 mb heights, and colors are the anomaly. The pattern show is a strong ridge in the east and trough in the west.

I'm sorry to be the bearer of bad news.

 

[ALLSKIING]

Source page:
http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ewall.html
Specific image link:
http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/CMCNA_0z/hgtcomp.html

Yes, from left to right is the ECMWF, GFS, and CMC ensembles valid Thursday - Saturday of next week. As you can see, the signal is very robust. The contour lines are ensemble mean 500 mb heights, and colors are the anomaly. The pattern show is a strong ridge in the east and trough in the west.

I'm sorry to be the bearer of bad news.

Can't we just stick with "the models are always wrong" theory ?

 

[yeggous]

Can't we just stick with "the models are always wrong" theory ?

Sure, but the spread of the model ensemble provides insight into how wrong it is likely to be. Do you see how flat the signal is over Asia and the western Pacific? That can be a sign of either:
1) The model is highly uncertain
2) It is very likely to be zonal flow
To differentiate between those two options we would look at the ensemble variance and individual members.

 

[slatham]

The battle for next week is all but won by warm. The question is the following week. Baring sea rule results in a trough. Does the PNA go positive - west ridge, east trough - as some long range models suggest? Does the AO and /or NAO go negative? In other words, does the pattern change, and save Thanksgiving? This is still a distinct possibility. This is what we have to watch.

 

[Rowsdower]

50s until mid December.

 

[andrec10]

50s until mid December.

Its easy to get banned with posts like that! Lol...

 

[Puck it]

Its easy to get banned with posts like that! Lol...

Ban him to Mizzou and tell them he is a journalist!!!!!!!

 

[Smellytele]

50s until mid December.

Hopefully only in PA not NNE.

 

[Tin]

50s until mid December.

I wouldn't mind as long as we got some good storms mid-end of December. Last December and the year prior were awesome. Pretty sad two years ago this time I was skiing the Superstar pod at K.

 

[dlague]

This is serious!