powderfreak
New member
- Joined
- Jan 9, 2007
- Messages
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Quick points for those of you who don't like rambling...
1) I am flying out to SW Colorado at 6am on Saturday from Albany. Will be
there next week and won't be back in Burlington till a week from Sunday.
I'll likely have internet access but not sure how often I'll check it so if
a storm pops up, stay with the NWS guys or Josh Fox (at MRG); they'll destroy any
other forecasts.
2) Pattern goes zonal next week and we are flooded with mild, Pacific air.
At this time of year, once we go back towards normal or just a tad above
normal, rain becomes an issue especially at lower elevations. I think next
week sees some marginal events where it might be snow on the mtn tops with
light rain showers in the valley. Do not foresee any major precipitation
events or major wash outs. Heck, some of the days could bring perfect
spring skiing with inversions leaving the upper mtn near freezing at night
and the valleys in the low 20's...while the days are in the 40's with sun.
3) The last 10 days of March look to be back into a colder
regime with plenty of cold air still hanging tough over Canada. The
operational GFS has been showing us tapping that towards the end of the
month and would bring some late March snows. I do not see anything to worry
about at this point as far as an 80-90 inch snowpack melting in a week. We
might settle back into the 70's but overall, I believe much of Vermont is
primed for decent spring skiing before one last return of the snows.
Discussion/Musings...
First, wow what a cold night we've got on tap tonight. The NWS mentions
possible 40 below readings (that's ambient temperature, not wind chill) and
is going with record cold across the area. Then we see a 40-50F swing
during the day tomorrow as highs get up to the teens/twenties. Tomorrow
morning's lows should be quite interesting.
Moving on to the weekend...
Here's the NWS forecast for Mount Mansfield at 3K feet:
-----------------------------------------------------
Friday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 17.
Saturday: A chance of snow showers, High of 36.
Saturday Night: A chance of snow showers, low of 19.
Sunday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 39.
Sunday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 22.
Monday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 39.
-----------------------------------------------------
Valleys have chance of rain showers but the mtns are showing chance of snow
showers and then we break into what should be a few days of excellent spring
skiing. Wall to wall sunshine with highs on the mtn in the upper 30's and
low to mid 40's in the valleys (same exact forecast was given during that
week long stretch of great weather, just to give you an idea of temps) and
with low humidity, expect the snow to stay in better condition than it would
with those temps and clouds. Overnight temps should fall like a rock with
good radiational cooling before warming up during the day. Valleys could
see some 30-40F daily swings that are indicative of sugar-season.
Mid-week comes and things go a little bit downhill as the front sitting up
in Canada allows for some waves of low pressure to ripple along it. The
case could be here that areas north of I-89 have the best shot at widespread
clouds and some light precipitation in the form of wet snow up top and light
rain at the bottom, while south of I-89 sees a little less of the
clouds/precip and more in the way of great spring conditions.
Long term progs (8-10 days) of the European Model and the GFS show lower
than normal heights and colder than normal temperatures in that time range
with a mean trough setting up across the northeast. This is how I think
we'll spend the last ten days of the month so while it might get a little
mild, it doesn't look like anything out of the ordinary for March and it
certainly will not be going to the opposite end of the spectrum from right
now (ie. record warmth). I think we've got one or two good snows left in us
for the end of March and possibly early April.
-Scott
1) I am flying out to SW Colorado at 6am on Saturday from Albany. Will be
there next week and won't be back in Burlington till a week from Sunday.
I'll likely have internet access but not sure how often I'll check it so if
a storm pops up, stay with the NWS guys or Josh Fox (at MRG); they'll destroy any
other forecasts.
2) Pattern goes zonal next week and we are flooded with mild, Pacific air.
At this time of year, once we go back towards normal or just a tad above
normal, rain becomes an issue especially at lower elevations. I think next
week sees some marginal events where it might be snow on the mtn tops with
light rain showers in the valley. Do not foresee any major precipitation
events or major wash outs. Heck, some of the days could bring perfect
spring skiing with inversions leaving the upper mtn near freezing at night
and the valleys in the low 20's...while the days are in the 40's with sun.
3) The last 10 days of March look to be back into a colder
regime with plenty of cold air still hanging tough over Canada. The
operational GFS has been showing us tapping that towards the end of the
month and would bring some late March snows. I do not see anything to worry
about at this point as far as an 80-90 inch snowpack melting in a week. We
might settle back into the 70's but overall, I believe much of Vermont is
primed for decent spring skiing before one last return of the snows.
Discussion/Musings...
First, wow what a cold night we've got on tap tonight. The NWS mentions
possible 40 below readings (that's ambient temperature, not wind chill) and
is going with record cold across the area. Then we see a 40-50F swing
during the day tomorrow as highs get up to the teens/twenties. Tomorrow
morning's lows should be quite interesting.
Moving on to the weekend...
Here's the NWS forecast for Mount Mansfield at 3K feet:
-----------------------------------------------------
Friday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 17.
Saturday: A chance of snow showers, High of 36.
Saturday Night: A chance of snow showers, low of 19.
Sunday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 39.
Sunday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 22.
Monday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 39.
-----------------------------------------------------
Valleys have chance of rain showers but the mtns are showing chance of snow
showers and then we break into what should be a few days of excellent spring
skiing. Wall to wall sunshine with highs on the mtn in the upper 30's and
low to mid 40's in the valleys (same exact forecast was given during that
week long stretch of great weather, just to give you an idea of temps) and
with low humidity, expect the snow to stay in better condition than it would
with those temps and clouds. Overnight temps should fall like a rock with
good radiational cooling before warming up during the day. Valleys could
see some 30-40F daily swings that are indicative of sugar-season.
Mid-week comes and things go a little bit downhill as the front sitting up
in Canada allows for some waves of low pressure to ripple along it. The
case could be here that areas north of I-89 have the best shot at widespread
clouds and some light precipitation in the form of wet snow up top and light
rain at the bottom, while south of I-89 sees a little less of the
clouds/precip and more in the way of great spring conditions.
Long term progs (8-10 days) of the European Model and the GFS show lower
than normal heights and colder than normal temperatures in that time range
with a mean trough setting up across the northeast. This is how I think
we'll spend the last ten days of the month so while it might get a little
mild, it doesn't look like anything out of the ordinary for March and it
certainly will not be going to the opposite end of the spectrum from right
now (ie. record warmth). I think we've got one or two good snows left in us
for the end of March and possibly early April.
-Scott
