2014-2015 Winter Forecast (here we go)

[skiNEwhere]

Has anyone ever gone back after the season has ended to analyze how accurate these maps were?

It's good for pre season hype but I would like to see how accurate they were after the season ends.

I read somewhere that punxstunaney (sp?) Phil was accurate only 39% of the time. Who's taking the over and under for this map?

 

[fbrissette]

Has anyone ever gone back after the season has ended to analyze how accurate these maps were?

Why would they do something showing their long-term forecast was BS ?

There is a lot of scientific literature on seasonal forecasts and hindcasting studies with weather models. Here's my take as to the main conclusions:

- seasonal forecasts have gotten a lot better over the past decade, and will continue to do so in the future
- precipitation is the most difficult variable to forecast
- the skill of seasonal forecast is mostly evaluated with respect to their ability at predicting large scales sea surface anomalies (pressure and temperatures) and NOT on predicting precipitation over any given regions. Modelers will ALL tell you that predicting winter precipitation in the summer makes no sense.
- What the guys producing those BS maps are doing is using those predicted anomalies and they transform them into seasonal precipitation forecasts based on preconceived notions that such anomaly correlates with this and that (which is partly true for some regions, but definitely not for the North-east).
- If you want some skill (meaning better than random) for winter precipitation, you may get some for the month of December when the November 1st seasonal forecast comes out. And that's the state of the art.

 

[dlague]

Why would they do something showing their long-term forecast was BS ?

There is a lot of scientific literature on seasonal forecasts and hindcasting studies with weather models. Here's my take as to the main conclusions:

- seasonal forecasts have gotten a lot better over the past decade, and will continue to do so in the future
- precipitation is the most difficult variable to forecast
- the skill of seasonal forecast is mostly evaluated with respect to their ability at predicting large scales sea surface anomalies (pressure and temperatures) and NOT on predicting precipitation over any given regions. Modelers will ALL tell you that predicting winter precipitation in the summer makes no sense.
- What the guys producing those BS maps are doing is using those predicted anomalies and they transform them into seasonal precipitation forecasts based on preconceived notions that such anomaly correlates with this and that (which is partly true for some regions, but definitely not for the North-east).
- If you want some skill (meaning better than random) for winter precipitation, you may get some for the month of December when the November 1st seasonal forecast comes out. And that's the state of the art.

Farmers Almanac - is where it is at!

 

[Puck it]

Not 2014-2015 but it looks like 2099 is going to be a scorcher!!!!

 

[skiNEwhere]

Damn. There go my ski plans for my 114th birthday

 

[billski]

For me, this thread is all wishful thinking. We can't even get one week out forecasts right.
BTW, liast winter, many the ponds in the North Maine Woods did not have thick enough ice to support one skinny skier, let alone a snow machine

 

[billski]

I read somewhere that punxstunaney (sp?) Phil was accurate only 39% of the time. Who's taking the over and under for this map?

snort. how would you define "six more weeks of winter", or whatever it is. From what location would this be measured. Does PP has a "forecast area?". Sounds like the only thing PP is good for is some groundhog sandwiches.

 

[billski]

Not 2014-2015 but it looks like 2099 is going to be a scorcher!!!!

Another useless PhD thesis I suppose...

 

[dlague]

snort. how would you define "six more weeks of winter", or whatever it is. From what location would this be measured. Does PP has a "forecast area?". Sounds like the only thing PP is good for is some groundhog sandwiches.

Hey, easy now! I am rather fond of the little guy. His cousin is in our yard.

 

[billski]

There is a lot of scientific literature on seasonal forecasts and hindcasting studies with weather models.

I'd be curious to hear whether the heat-seekers or snow-lovers are doing the happy -dance and where in the world the forecasts might be more reliable. How about Hawaii? I hear the weather is quite stable there.

 

[billski]

Hey, easy now! I am rather fond of the little guy. His cousin is in our yard.

If we got all his cousins together and they all saw/didn't see their shadow, would the forecast be more accurate? If so, I'll skip the sandwiches.

 

[skiNEwhere]

snort. how would you define "six more weeks of winter", or whatever it is. From what location would this be measured. Does PP has a "forecast area?". Sounds like the only thing PP is good for is some groundhog sandwiches.

My definition, from when I lived in Mass, was the temperature not reaching the mid 60's in those 6 weeks

 

[BenedictGomez]

Has anyone ever gone back after the season has ended to analyze how accurate these maps were?

Monkey flipping a coin awful.

Like I said, analogues can be useful. And although scientists don't know why, there is a statistically significant correlation between Siberian snow-cover and our winters. Start paying attention to the weather in Siberia a few months from now.

Not 2014-2015 but it looks like 2099 is going to be a scorcher!!!!

Yes, and according to "An Inconvenient Truth" the icecap was supposed to have completely melted by Summer of 2013.

WE DIHDN'T LISSENNNN!!!!

 

[Not Sure]

snort. how would you define "six more weeks of winter", or whatever it is. From what location would this be measured. Does PP has a "forecast area?". Sounds like the only thing PP is good for is some groundhog sandwiches.

It's not about the forecast...it's another reason to party..those people are gooned at 7 in the morning.

 

[jack97]

Like I said, analogues can be useful. And although scientists don't know why, there is a statistically significant correlation between Siberian snow-cover and our winters. Start paying attention to the weather in Siberia a few months from now.

yep... analogues are useful. The wildcard in all of this is that the sun has become less active. Some scientist thinks if the upcoming cycles reamains less active, then we will be in a minimum... meaning global cooling.

BTW, another paper by a group of solar physicists did a reconstruction with carbon 14 and archaeomagnetic dating, their findings was the period between 1950 to 2009 was a grand maximum. A very active period that occurs every 3000 years. Correlates well to the warming period we had from the 1960 up to present.

 

[dlague]

Just posted on AZ FB Page by our esteemed Nick (assumption)! Glad to see that he is buying into the hype!

https://www.facebook.com/alpinezn/photos/a.10150463072900504.642145.284597450503/10154479749730504/?type=1&theater

 

[Abubob]

An interview with "The Niño" with Joel Gratz. According to this we might expect a weak to moderate el niño which means all bets are off IMHO. Seems the stronger the niño the better the precipitation in the NE with weak niños not so good.

https://opensnow.com/news/post/how-will-el-nino-impact-snowfall-for-the-2014-2015-ski-season

 

[skiberg]

I have spent a lot of time reading about the effect of an El Nino, in fact there are websites that have crunched the numbers on this. They reviewed the historical snow fall amounts at every ski resort in the US and correlated the strength of an El Nino. The conclusion is that there is absolutely no correlation between El Nino and greater snowfall, anywhere, even in California. Sorry for the bad news, basically it wait and see.

 

[dlague]

I have spent a lot of time reading about the effect of an El Nino, in fact there are websites that have crunched the numbers on this. They reviewed the historical snow fall amounts at every ski resort in the US and correlated the strength of an El Nino. The conclusion is that there is absolutely no correlation between El Nino and greater snowfall, anywhere, even in California. Sorry for the bad news, basically it wait and see.

Then how do we get greater snowfall! We need to know what to look for!

 

[skiberg]

Pray to Ullr. I know an awful lot has been written about this on this forum, but I think the single biggest thing is the negative NAO and or the North Atlantic/Greenland block. Basically that's the biggie. Best place I know to follow this is http://madriverglenweather.blogspot.com/ . This guy does a nice job of mid-long term projections.