ChicoKat
New member
All is not lost, maybe the Jay Cloud and the Cannon Effect are joining forces over wildcat. http://www.snowforecast.com/resorts/4654-wildcat-mountain-ski-resort
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Winter Forecast 2015-2016
- Thread starter dlague
- Start date
from_the_NEK
Active member
^isn't that where Tuna gets his weather forecast too? That worked out well last week. 
wtcobb
New member
Scattered snow showers totaling four feet of snow! Ski at last, we can ski at last!
:blink:
:blink:
drjeff
Well-known member
ss20
Well-known member
I'm still not convinced that we're gonna die.
1. These storms always trend towards the coast.
2. Considering how each model was showing something totally different yesterday, I'm not convinced this is our final track
3. Not buying a 60 degree temperature swing from Sunday morning to Tuesday night.
1. These storms always trend towards the coast.
2. Considering how each model was showing something totally different yesterday, I'm not convinced this is our final track
3. Not buying a 60 degree temperature swing from Sunday morning to Tuesday night.
drjeff
Well-known member
#1 has more than been the case this year. Overwhelmingly this year as the model runs progress and the actual storm time approaches, there's been a distinct shift East. If this storm does that by 50 to 100 miles, then ski country does pretty well
BenedictGomez
Well-known member
ss20
Well-known member
Yep. How many storms have we lost by going "out-to-sea"? How many storms have we lost "in-too-inland"?
BenedictGomez
Well-known member
I mentioned this yesterday, but that has not been the case at all, with the exception of the last 2 bits of energy that went OTS. Almost every storm this year has "real world" moved to the west of guidance.
It's a different thing altogether to say "at the last minute" it went east of the final guidance, but in the long and intermediate range they've moved west. This one is too. The GFS and Canadian are WAY west of the previous run, and the Euro just went bizarrely west (to the point I wonder if something is wrong with it).
The best and most positive thing I can think to say, is that thank god it's 5 days away, but if the general idea here becomes reality, it's pretty catastrophic. Nasty ice storm, torrential rains, sleet, high winds, and some snow. I'm hoping for the best (obviously), but I'm pretty worried.
wtcobb
New member
Based on this forecast I'd say the meteorologist is experiencing more of the Scotty cloud.
BenedictGomez
Well-known member
One bit of good news (though I'm sort of reaching), the ECMWF ensembles are out, and they're as far west as roughly Niagara Falls, and as far east as the benchmark (i.e. it seems the model is incredibly confused). And given how dramatically west the GFS and Canuck have moved, it seems like they're all confused. Just pray for the best.
BenedictGomez
Well-known member
Just listened to Bernie Rayno's early read on this. Looking at his chart, he thinks it will come in maybe 40'ish miles south and east of modeled.
That would spare ADK and VT, but be bad for Poconos, Cats (though maybe Platty gets spared) and just pretty horrible for Berks. It's not great for a lot of ski areas, but given how terrible this could be, I'd take his track and lock it in right now if I could.
That would spare ADK and VT, but be bad for Poconos, Cats (though maybe Platty gets spared) and just pretty horrible for Berks. It's not great for a lot of ski areas, but given how terrible this could be, I'd take his track and lock it in right now if I could.
catsup948
New member
GFS ensembles
Attachments
catsup948
New member
I'm assuming the mean
BenedictGomez
Well-known member
18Z GFS comes even more west.
I wont post a picture, lest there be children watching.
I wont post a picture, lest there be children watching.
WJenness
Active member
Maybe it'll keep going west and rain in Detroit and we'll have a nice, sunny, spring skiing week?
#DailyDelusion
ss20
Well-known member
Well, most of the rain is going to the west of the NYS Thruway... 3 inches of rain over there while the rest of ski country "escapes" with 1-2 inches of rain.
I'm holding out until tomorrow until I call this a washout. Still hopeful.
Anyone wanna make a thread for this storm? Not too wintery but there's been enough discussion about it to warrant it's own spot.
ScottySkis
Well-known member
Next year maybe time to book west vacation.
http://unofficialnetworks.com/2016/02/noaa-could-we-see-a-la-nina-for-next-season
http://unofficialnetworks.com/2016/02/noaa-could-we-see-a-la-nina-for-next-season
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