andrec10
Active member
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Now the Weather Channel mentioned this as well. Well now its not going to snow!
PS: Hope my statement is wrong!
PS: Hope my statement is wrong!
-
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12/19 - 12/20 Storm Discussion Thread
- Thread starter Greg
- Start date
hammer
Active member
Now trends from NWS are going towards a non-event... :sad:
4aprice
Well-known member
Seems like we're missing a bunch of good opportunies. Most mets envisioned this period of time as a good set up for storms but the forecasts I'm seeing now are calling for cold and dry. Thank god for man made snow. This early season 2009/2010 has been a test of patience.
Alex
Lake Hopatcong, NJ
billski
Active member
scott had some interesting comments on skivtl
I do see some similarities but this event will be no where near the
size/scope of that one. The March 4, 2006 event dropped 10" in downtown
Burlington, 14" at KBTV, 18" at Williston, and 30-40" of fluff on
Mansfield... most, if not all of it, falling overnight.
In all my Mansfield/Stowe ski days, that one is still without a doubt #1.
It is the upslope event that all upslope events are measured in my mind...
the forecast was for a dusting in the Champlain Valley and light/moderate
snows in the mountains. Then all the sudden 1-2"/hr snows broke out in the
eastern Champlain Valley with 2-4"/hr snows over the mountains...and it
continued all night. The NWS attributed it to the warm air advection from
the north (which is a very rare pattern) coupled with strong upslope flow
I do see some similarities but this event will be no where near the
size/scope of that one. The March 4, 2006 event dropped 10" in downtown
Burlington, 14" at KBTV, 18" at Williston, and 30-40" of fluff on
Mansfield... most, if not all of it, falling overnight.
In all my Mansfield/Stowe ski days, that one is still without a doubt #1.
It is the upslope event that all upslope events are measured in my mind...
the forecast was for a dusting in the Champlain Valley and light/moderate
snows in the mountains. Then all the sudden 1-2"/hr snows broke out in the
eastern Champlain Valley with 2-4"/hr snows over the mountains...and it
continued all night. The NWS attributed it to the warm air advection from
the north (which is a very rare pattern) coupled with strong upslope flow
Alex,
Yeah, it certainly is one of those pattern reconfigurations that have potential to deliver the goods! But it's the ol "if a tree falls in the forest, does it make a sound"? We can have a monster storm pass by just offshore and it would go unnoticed--but have it take a slight jog west and we get blasted. Did we see the potential...yes--did it produce a storm...yes-but it snuck by just far enough to where it only effected the fishes. Heck, this could happen all season with massive storms bypassing us by the smallest margin but it's not to say that it wasn't an active/stormy pattern. It's a fine line--that's why the forecasts have been highly changeable. I have to mention Accuweather's Joe Bastardi about the recent Houston snowfall where he mentioned you can forecast snow for Houston, but it stops just 20 miles north and everyone thinks you got it ALL wrong.
But, hey, it goes with the territory--the "nature" of the biz I suppose. And I'm not being defensive or trying to make excuses--just offering a little perspective, that's all. I'll keep checking the latest model trends and keep you posted.
Cheers!
Yeah, it certainly is one of those pattern reconfigurations that have potential to deliver the goods! But it's the ol "if a tree falls in the forest, does it make a sound"? We can have a monster storm pass by just offshore and it would go unnoticed--but have it take a slight jog west and we get blasted. Did we see the potential...yes--did it produce a storm...yes-but it snuck by just far enough to where it only effected the fishes. Heck, this could happen all season with massive storms bypassing us by the smallest margin but it's not to say that it wasn't an active/stormy pattern. It's a fine line--that's why the forecasts have been highly changeable. I have to mention Accuweather's Joe Bastardi about the recent Houston snowfall where he mentioned you can forecast snow for Houston, but it stops just 20 miles north and everyone thinks you got it ALL wrong.
But, hey, it goes with the territory--the "nature" of the biz I suppose. And I'm not being defensive or trying to make excuses--just offering a little perspective, that's all. I'll keep checking the latest model trends and keep you posted.
Cheers!
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Actually, the two December events we got over-performed. Nothing major, but more snow and a slower changeover than forecast. I think the bigger one last week was forecast initially to go out to sea too and then the models brought it back as we got closer to the event. Hoping the same holds true here. Better than predicting something big and then the track goes out to sea, or worse up the Apps.
drjeff
Well-known member
It appears more and more like this big, strong artic high pressure system that's moving in now, is just going to be a bit too strong to let the low coming up out of the gulf force it's way far enough West to make this a good storm for the East 
(Nantucket and Maybe Martha's Vineyard excluded )
The good thing is that the computer models seem to be mainly in agreeance that this cold air is going to be inplace for atleast the rest of 2009, and that overall the storminess of the US, while not an epic, major levels right now seems to want to be active over that time, and with the cold air in place and the Atlantic still being relatively warm, any low that moves its way in our direction the next few weeks will have potential to be a snow producer if the storm track and storm speed are good!
(Nantucket and Maybe Martha's Vineyard excluded )The good thing is that the computer models seem to be mainly in agreeance that this cold air is going to be inplace for atleast the rest of 2009, and that overall the storminess of the US, while not an epic, major levels right now seems to want to be active over that time, and with the cold air in place and the Atlantic still being relatively warm, any low that moves its way in our direction the next few weeks will have potential to be a snow producer if the storm track and storm speed are good!
WJenness
Active member
Sorry guys, but I'm pulling for this one to not be a coast hugger...
Driving down (Myrtle Beach, SC) to see mom for Christmas, and leaving early Sat. morning...
-w
Driving down (Myrtle Beach, SC) to see mom for Christmas, and leaving early Sat. morning...
-w
hammer
Active member
Understand...I'll be driving to NJ the weekend after Christmas and I'd like it to be dry then.
4aprice
Well-known member
Joe Bastardi just picked up my spirits. Video on the regular Accuweather site today. Recommended viewing.
Greg: I would agree that the two prior events over performed but the scuttlebutt I heard was that this period was going to be the Jackpot we want and to see the forecast this morning was a little disheartening. Hey at least the cold has come and the snowgun offensive can resume. I'm still on board the good winter train, its just testing my patience.
Alex
Lake Hopatcong, NJ
mikestaple
Member
It appears more and more like this big, strong artic high pressure system that's moving in now, is just going to be a bit too strong to let the low coming up out of the gulf force it's way far enough West to make this a good storm for the East
The good thing is that the computer models seem to be mainly in agreeance that this cold air is going to be inplace for atleast the rest of 2009, and that overall the storminess of the US, while not an epic, major levels right now seems to want to be active over that time, and with the cold air in place and the Atlantic still being relatively warm, any low that moves its way in our direction the next few weeks will have potential to be a snow producer if the storm track and storm speed are good!
It will line up eventually - but this one looks like, at best, to be my ultimate nightmare. Nothing in the mountains and a foot in my "near the Cape" driveway. Bleeeh.
WJenness
Active member
mikestaple
Member
You mean "Cougar Town".?!?!?! Nice!!!!
polski
New member
The prediction I'm pulling out of my butt: This will be a Yawgoo Valley Mauler.
Meanwhile, dayside at NWS-Burlington doesn't seem as hepped up on Greens upslope snow potential this weekend as last night's crew was, but it seems you really never know with those things pretty much until the flakes start falling - and even then the jackpot locations & intensities can be quite unpredictable. Makes it tough for those of us 3 hrs drive from the typically "favored locations" but I pay attention nonetheless ...
Meanwhile, dayside at NWS-Burlington doesn't seem as hepped up on Greens upslope snow potential this weekend as last night's crew was, but it seems you really never know with those things pretty much until the flakes start falling - and even then the jackpot locations & intensities can be quite unpredictable. Makes it tough for those of us 3 hrs drive from the typically "favored locations" but I pay attention nonetheless ...
polski
New member
btw Greens and Berks are getting a little upslope/lake-effect right now, per everyone's favorite radar. NWS zone forecasts say only a dusting to 2". Watch 1) some place get a foot of blower and 2) me kick myself for not being there tomorrow.
via Twitter as of half an hour ago:
via Twitter as of half an hour ago:
drjeff
Well-known member
Some upslope snow started at Mount Snow a bit after 1PM - Been watching a cat due some pushing around of snow after phase one of the snowmaking assault on the 1/2 pipe in one of their cams
http://www.mountsnow.com/livecamshot.php
Just ignore their base area cam right now as it's been frozen on the same shot for a couple of days. The summit cam and the 1/2 pipe cam are refreshing every 30 seconds currently.
The way this high pressure system is moving has the currently winds more from a Northerly direction than the West/Northwest direction that tends to bring on a substantial upslope event. Probably see a better chance of some "good" upslope winds in a few days as the core of the cold air move a bit further South and East
http://www.mountsnow.com/livecamshot.php
Just ignore their base area cam right now as it's been frozen on the same shot for a couple of days. The summit cam and the 1/2 pipe cam are refreshing every 30 seconds currently.
The way this high pressure system is moving has the currently winds more from a Northerly direction than the West/Northwest direction that tends to bring on a substantial upslope event. Probably see a better chance of some "good" upslope winds in a few days as the core of the cold air move a bit further South and East
4aprice
Well-known member
According to the weather boards there is still some hope as the models are trending in the right direction. Keeping my fingers crossed.
Alex
Lake Hopatcong, NJ
Alex
Lake Hopatcong, NJ
drjeff
Well-known member
I'm thinking that it will just be a "Rhode Island" sized mauling of Yawgoo
This artic high is a big strong one, and it seems to keep wanting to move a bit further East than many models have thought, which will likely act to keep the big modeled low that will likely be forming /moving out of the Gulf of Mexico in the next 36 or so hours too far to the East. Plus, this atmosphere is DRY and lots of virga (cloud level precipitation but not ground level precipitation) will happen before any flakes that may try and fall over land will reach the ground
