12/19 - 12/20 Storm Discussion Thread

[4aprice]

Bastardi has another video out today and he thinks at least 6 for the Poconos and maybe more. Not ground zero but we will take it. And he's still bullish on the storm next week calling it in so many words a 2 headed monster. The 2nd storm affecting further north.

Alex

Lake Hopatcong, NJ

 

[Madroch]

Okay- FWIW if anything-- wild 18Z NAM snow map:

http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models/nam/18znamsnow_NE084.gif

 

[Greg]

Okay- FWIW if anything-- wild 18Z NAM snow map:

http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models/nam/18znamsnow_NE084.gif

Bullseye: Catskills!

 

[Glenn]

What's the timing of this look like? The news this AM mentioned Saturday night into Sunday?

 

[billski]

NWS Just updated their forecast and pushed the precip northward

 

[drjeff]

Okay- FWIW if anything-- wild 18Z NAM snow map:

http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models/nam/18znamsnow_NE084.gif

That's the key phrase on this one

Bullseye: Catskills!

Just wait till next week

 

[drjeff]

NWS Just updated their forecast and pushed the precip northward

The telling thing to me with this map is the lack of the red area. This air we have in place (and will be in place over the weekend) right now is so dry that the northern fringes of this storm (and that's what we'll be getting at best) are going to have lots of it's potential moisture sucked up by the dry air columns aloft, and will have a good deal of the moisture aloft consumed as the air column gets saturated to ground level and the snow reaches the ground.

The problem with this one is the BIG kink in the jetstream around Virginia. the cold air we have up here is just going to block the storm from getting close enough to get enough precip aloft to get an appreciable amount to the ground.

Now next week, the projected models have the jetstream in a much more favorable orientation!

if this thing pans out, you've got some gulf moisture to give it a kick start before it feeds off the atlantic on it's way north, and then nothing to block it from New England. The biggest factor with this one in terms of snowfall accumulation will likely be more attributable to how slow/fast it's moving, not storm track

 

[billski]

nws thinks its a fast mover.

Day1

Day 2

Now look at day 2 >8 inches:

 

[ZYDECORICH]

6:00 pm NYC network weather said virginia mts. could get 2 plus feet. the one thing is that these guys all had that nervous look on their face for the tri state area. allways a good sign. VOODOO LADY STIR THE POT!!

 

[drjeff]

6:00 pm NYC network weather said virginia mts. could get 2 plus feet. the one thing is that these guys all had that nervous look on their face for the tri state area. allways a good sign. VOODOO LADY STIR THE POT!!

I could totally see the VA mtns geting 2 feet from this one. They'll have full access to a BIG amount of moisture with favorable upper level winds.

 

[ZYDECORICH]

I could totally see the VA mtns geting 2 feet from this one. They'll have full access to a BIG amount of moisture with favorable upper level winds.

i agree, now if it could just slow down and track a bit further west we'd be golden down here. they sat 100 miles of track west could mean a whole new situation.

 

[mikestaple]

The blind dart throwers (aka weather guessers) in Boston are starting to hedge. Definitely getting some down here near the Cape on Sunday (I know - worthless snow). But, they are starting to get nerbous. Indicating that if this were to move, it would be at least 12 inches of snow.

The next one could be the big one (Christmas surprise!).

 

[ZYDECORICH]

nyc network stations calling for 6 -12 for jersey shore and long island 3 - 6 for the city and northwest suburbs sat night into sun.. maybe still more depending on the track. hopefully mt creek will get a nice covering on top of all the man made. going sunday and monday.

 

[Glenn]

The local guy is calling for this to only go as far north as the Mass/CT line.

 

[St. Bear]

NWS has posted an official Winter Storm Watch for Warren County, NJ:

Issued by The National Weather Service
Philadelphia, PA
4:40 am EST, Fri., Dec. 18, 2009

... WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH... WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT.

SNOW IS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM SOUTH TO NORTH EARLY SATURDAY. THE SNOW COULD BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES DURING SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE TAPERING OFF EARLY SUNDAY. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL THIS WEEKEND.

THE SNOW COULD FALL HEAVY AT TIMES... WHICH MAY COMBINE WITH GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS TO PRODUCE AREAS OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. THIS MAY CAUSE DANGEROUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.

THERE IS STILL CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE TRACK OF THIS DEVELOPING STORM. IF A MORE WESTWARD TRACK MATERIALIZES, SNOW AMOUNTS COULD REACH WARNING CRITERIA IN THE WATCH AREA. A MORE EASTWARD TRACK WOULD YIELD LIGHTER AMOUNTS.

A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW... SLEET... OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL. CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS.

More Information
... HEAVY SNOW AND WINDY CONDITIONS TO POTENTIALLY AFFECT OUR AREA FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL MOVE TO THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST BY SATURDAY MORNING. IT WILL THEN MOVE NORTHEASTWARD TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON SUNDAY. THIS STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE A SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL ACROSS A GOOD PART OF THE REGION.

 

[Greg]

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
402 AM EST FRI DEC 18 2009

...POTENTIAL WINTER STORM FOR THE WEEKEND...

.LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF COAST WILL TRACK TO NEAR CAPE
HATTERAS SATURDAY MORNING...THEN DEEPEN AS IT TRACKS TO THE
NORTHEAST OVER THE ATLANTIC SATURDAY NIGHT. THE INTENSE LOW WILL
PRODUCE A SWATH OF HEAVY SNOWFALL...AS WELL AS A CORRIDOR OF HIGH
WINDS. AT THIS TIME...THE EXACT TRACK OF THE SYSTEM IS STILL
UNCERTAIN. A DIFFERENCE OF ONLY 100 MILES WILL HAVE A SIGNIFICANT
IMPACT ON THE WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION.

CTZ005>012-NJZ002>006-011-NYZ067>076-181715-
/O.NEW.KOKX.WS.A.0005.091219T1200Z-091220T1600Z/
NORTHERN FAIRFIELD-NORTHERN NEW HAVEN-NORTHERN MIDDLESEX-
NORTHERN NEW LONDON-SOUTHERN FAIRFIELD-SOUTHERN NEW HAVEN-
SOUTHERN MIDDLESEX-SOUTHERN NEW LONDON-WESTERN PASSAIC-BERGEN-
EASTERN PASSAIC-ESSEX-HUDSON-UNION-ORANGE-PUTNAM-ROCKLAND-
NORTHERN WESTCHESTER-SOUTHERN WESTCHESTER-NEW YORK (MANHATTAN)-
BRONX-RICHMOND (STATEN ISLAND)-KINGS (BROOKLYN)-QUEENS-
402 AM EST FRI DEC 18 2009

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN UPTON HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM
WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING.

DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE ATLANTIC SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT WILL RESULT IN THE POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF HEAVY SNOW AND
GUSTY WINDS ACROSS REGION. SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10
INCHES WITH WIND GUSTS OF UP TO 35 MPH ARE POSSIBLE. THE GREATEST
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY SNOW AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE ALONG THE COAST
AND IN THE NEW YORK CITY METROPOLITAN AREA.

IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT THE EXACT TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM IS
STILL UNCERTAIN. A GLANCING BLOW WITH LESS SNOW AND LIGHTER WINDS
REMAINS A POSSIBILITY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
SNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL.
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS.

&&

$$

JMC

5-10" in NYC? What a waste. Good for the industry though to get the masses really thinking about skiing. Perhaps that track will drift just a bit north and put the bullseye on Sundown....

 

[drjeff]

Ski the Southshore dunes of Long Island on Sunday ([size=-4]or the poconos/VA/NC mountains[/size]) for the best face shots from this one

 

[WinnChill]

Early midday model run (12Z NAM) in between 00Z and 06Z runs...about half a foot for Sundown before heading back out to sea--perhaps a few inches for southern NH and ME slopes (Pats Peak through Shawnee).

 

[Greg]

about half a foot for Sundown before heading back out to sea

Works for me.

 

[bvibert]

Works for me.

Hell ya!