2014-2015 Winter Forecast (here we go)

[hammer]

Any prognostics looking into March? Also, I sure hope the snow backs off in the flatlands...after nearly 4 feet in a week I've had enough in my yard...

 

[BenedictGomez]

Any prognostics looking into March?

No, I've only seen the 1-month forward climate model for February. But if you think about it, the climate model for November, December, and January were all wrong (warm, cold, warm versus cold, warm, cold), so I dont put much faith/stock in it.

 

[dlague]

For what it is worth:

"Skiers, I think you're going to have some good skiing weather for the Rockies going into March and maybe even April as well," AccuWeather.com Lead Long-Range Forecaster Paul Pastelok said.

In the Midwest and Northeastern states, chilly shots will linger into March. The cool air will be punctuated by milder days, but overall, the eastern half of the nation will have to wait until May for prolonged warmth.

Northeast Warm-Dry Late

 

[ss20]

Warmth is OK as long as it's dry. Let's not have a repeat of March 2012 either...

 

[catsup948]

I don't believe anything accuweather says. I guess the pattern could completely flip from cold and wet to warm and dry. If we ever get a -NAO march could go bananas with snow and cold. If we don't I'd think warm and wet is more likely than warm and dry.

 

[VTKilarney]

They are predicting severe thunderstorms in the south this spring? Hmm... who would have thought?

 

[BenedictGomez]

Something strange is going on with the models today for next week. I believe what we'll come to learn is something complex is confusing them.

The GFS is showing approximately 2.5 days of non-stop snow for most of the entire northeast (hardly likely), the Euro shows two big Lows in quick succession (one progressive cutting under PA/NJ & one dropping through ADK, then NNE), and at 7 days the Canuck is showing this absolutely ginormous monster (below).

So I have absolutely no idea what..........,but I think by Sunday we might have something exciting to talk about.

Murphy's Law being what it is, however, the models are predicting what I think would probably be near record cold negative temperatures for Presidents Weekend. Hopefully that bit falls apart.

 

[billski]

Any prognostics looking into March? Also, I sure hope the snow backs off in the flatlands...after nearly 4 feet in a week I've had enough in my yard...

I predict St. Patty's day, a full moon and 31 days.

 

[St. Bear]

Something strange is going on with the models today for next week. I believe what we'll come to learn is something complex is confusing them.

The GFS is showing approximately 2.5 days of non-stop snow for most of the entire northeast (hardly likely), the Euro shows two big Lows in quick succession (one progressive cutting under PA/NJ & one dropping through ADK, then NNE), and at 7 days the Canuck is showing this absolutely ginormous monster (below).

So I have absolutely no idea what..........,but I think by Sunday we might have something exciting to talk about.

Murphy's Law being what it is, however, the models are predicting what I think would probably be near record cold negative temperatures for Presidents Weekend. Hopefully that bit falls apart.

http://www.weathernj.com/feb-4-arct...rrunning-potential-for-snow-beginning-sunday/

 

[catsup948]

None of the models are doing very well as of late. Blend them! Overrunning systems followed by massive coastal. If only it was this easy. All I know is that it is an active cold pattern and there will be chances followed by bitter cold.

 

[BenedictGomez]

Still cold for Friday/Saturday, but it's gotten a bit better for sure than the runs of just a few days ago. That and, more importantly, the isobars are displaying nowhere near as stacked as they once were. Looks like this weekend's a go.

 

[ss20]

Start the thread! Start the thread! Start the thread! Start the thread!

 

[catsup948]

Clipper on Thursday looks decent on the GFS and Canadian. Tries to redevelop into bigger storm for eastern New england.

 

[BenedictGomez]

Next weekend still looks hellaciously brutal.

Which is a dang shame as there's nothing I'd like more than to get back into the conditions currently in VT right now, but not at the below temperatures. Probably have about 48 hours to hope the models back off on this nonsense, but it's not looking good right now.

 

[catsup948]

I'm getting a little tired of the cold. I got frost bite on my nose at Sugarloaf this weekend.

 

[fbrissette]

I'm getting a little tired of the cold. I got frost bite on my nose at Sugarloaf this weekend.

I hear you. I froze my toes more time this year than the total of the past 4 years. Temperature trends are very robust 4 days out. Looks like another cold as hell week-end. No lift lines at least.

 

[dlague]

Thursday looks to be another 4-6 inch event in NH

 

[Puck it]

My nose can't take the another cold weekend. It needs a 20 degree day.

 

[dlague]

My nose can't take the another cold weekend. It needs a 20 degree day.

Look up Sunday - looks like -3 for the high at the base of Cannon.

 

[St. Bear]

My nose can't take the another cold weekend. It needs a 20 degree day.

Move to NJ. 20 degrees is the worst it gets down here.