2014-2015 Winter Forecast (here we go)

[catsup948]

GFS doesn't want to give up this cold until... Who knows. Sunday is all over the place on models. Euro wants to crush everyone's hopes and dreams while the GFS stays cold and south for most. This will be fun to track this week.

 

[BenedictGomez]

GFS doesn't want to give up this cold until... Who knows.

Supposedly the first week of March we get above 32 temps. Nothing dramatic, but they last day and night until the end of the current range (March 5th) and there'd likely be some rain. Still 15 days out, so hopefully it's wrong.

 

[billski]

Word seems to be that our winters will be shorter but more intense.

 

[billski]

What's all this moaning about "cold" temperatures. I dress right, take more breaks and enjoy the place all to myself. Not the first time i've been out in negative single numbers.

Winds? just go into the woods. A whole 'nother world.

 

[BenedictGomez]

What's all this moaning about "cold" temperatures. I dress right, take more breaks and enjoy the place all to myself. Winds? just go into the woods. A whole 'nother world.

I guess you were skinning it when myriad resorts just closed due to extreme cold and/or high winds?

 

[billski]

I guess you were skinning it when myriad resorts just closed due to extreme cold and/or high winds?

Downhillin' at Magic.

 

[catsup948]

After Sunday things don't let up. Middle of the week looks very interesting.

 

[VTKilarney]

The Eye on the Sky folks posted on their Facebook page that this is one of the longest stretches of below freezing temperatures since modern records have been kept.

 

[thetrailboss]

After Sunday things don't let up. Middle of the week looks very interesting.

I'm interested in the long term forecasts as I'm coming to the NEK next week. Fingers crossed that the skiing is epic.


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[BenedictGomez]

The 18z GFS came in a bit colder, which would spare the s.VT mountains and put Gore in the "safe" zone.

Also cuts down on sum of time it rains in the Catskills, though they'd still get some rain. The below pic is the temps aloft during the warm temperature's, "High-water mark of the Confederacy".

It will be interesting to see if the Canadian model gets colder tonight, because that model was so warm it had rain all the way into Montreal (i.e. nobody got spared from the rain). I never saw the 12z Canuck ensemble run, but the 12z OP was so drastic that it wouldnt shock me if it was an outlier.

 

[BenedictGomez]

00z Canuck is significantly colder than the 12z Canuck. Would be a little bit of rain up north, but nothing dramatic. This model was the nightmare scenario 12 hours ago, so this is great news.

 

[mriceyman]

This year its always better to have a worse scenario 4 days out as the models are struggling really bad to find the real outcome. This last month has been a trend better within 72


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[billski]

00z Canuck is significantly colder than the 12z Canuck. Would be a little bit of rain up north, but nothing dramatic. This model was the nightmare scenario 12 hours ago, so this is great news.

BG, what's your bet on where "rain up north" will fall. You thinking southern NH? Let's not forget these are valley temps. subtract 5 to 10 degrees for summits.

 

[billski]

Mez007>009-nhz002>004-191845-
elevations from 2500 to 4000 feet in northern new hampshire and the
western maine mountains-
331 am est thu feb 19 2015

...recreation forecast for elevations between 2500 and 4000 feet in
northern new hampshire and the western maine mountains...

.today...snow. Highs 12 to 22. South winds around 20 mph increasing
to northwest around 30 mph with gusts up to 40 mph this afternoon.
Chance of snow near 100 percent. Wind chill values as low as
23 below.
.tonight...summits obscured. Snow likely in the evening...then a
chance of snow showers after midnight. Lows 5 below to 15 below
zero. Northwest winds 40 to 50 mph with gusts up to 60 mph. Chance
of snow 70 percent. Wind chill values as low as 47 below.
.friday...summits obscured. A chance of snow showers in the morning.
Highs 5 below to 5 above zero. Northwest winds 50 to 60 mph with
gusts up to 70 mph. Chance of snow 50 percent. Wind chill values as
low as 50 below.

$$

mez007>009-nhz002>004-191845-
summits above 4000 feet in northern new hampshire and western maine-
331 am est thu feb 19 2015

...recreation forecast for summits above 4000 feet in northern
new hampshire and western maine...

.today...summits obscured. Snow. Highs around 12...except 3 to
13 above at elevations above 5000 feet. Southwest winds around
20 mph increasing to northwest around 40 mph with gusts up to 50 mph
this afternoon. Chance of snow 80 percent. Wind chill values as low
as 36 below.
.tonight...summits obscured. Snow likely in the evening...then a
chance of snow showers after midnight. Lows 12 below to 22 below
zero. Northwest winds 40 to 50 mph...except northwest 55 to 65 mph
at elevations above 5000 feet. Chance of snow 70 percent. Wind chill
values as low as 61 below.
.friday...summits obscured. A chance of snow showers in the morning.
Highs 1 below to 11 below zero. Northwest winds 55 to 65 mph...
Except northwest 75 to 85 mph at elevations above 5000 feet. Chance
of snow 40 percent. Wind chill values as low as 64 below.

$$

 

[4aprice]

The NAO is currently positive so I guess an inland runner is possible, but boy that's a lot of cold air to be eroded by a tongue of warm air. JB was showing the downward trend of the NAO into negative as we go into March and April which is something we want to see.


Alex


Lake Hopatcong, NJ

 

[BenedictGomez]

BG, what's your bet on where "rain up north" will fall. You thinking southern NH? Let's not forget these are valley temps. subtract 5 to 10 degrees for summits.

The 06z GFS comes in even better. ALL of ski country would be spared from heavy rain with the exception of the Pocono Mountains. (obviously). The below is the "worst" it gets via the 06z run (i.e. it's the northernmost panel I could pull). With the air near or just over 32 temps in some areas (2nd pic), maybe mix or sleet, but that's better than a hard, wet, driving rain, and elevation might save the day as you note. The 12z runs will be key to see if this positive trend continues.

In addition to the elevation you pointed out, the weather models anticipate much, but they do not account for snow-cover, so we've got that going for us too (for those who don't know, snowpack helps keep temps down a tiny bit).

 

[Rowsdower]

It will minimize any non-snow precip as well, so even if we have to see sleet/freezing rain the less mixes in the better.

 

[BenedictGomez]

It will minimize any non-snow precip as well, so even if we have to see sleet/freezing rain the less mixes in the better.

Exactly.

 

[BenedictGomez]

12z GFS is out, not finished yet, but it's out to 90 hours so we can see this weekend.

It's even better still. Now even the Poconos may be spared the worst of it if this is correct (r/s line basically cuts right across where the ski resorts are).

Vermont / New Hampshire wouldn't see a drop of rain, nor the ADK and probably not even the Cats. Looks like a pretty nice ski weekend actually.

 

[dlague]

The 06z GFS comes in even better. ALL of ski country would be spared from heavy rain with the exception of the Pocono Mountains. (obviously). The below is the "worst" it gets via the 06z run (i.e. it's the northernmost panel I could pull). With the air near or just over 32 temps in some areas (2nd pic), maybe mix or sleet, but that's better than a hard, wet, driving rain, and elevation might save the day as you note. The 12z runs will be key to see if this positive trend continues.

In addition to the elevation you pointed out, the weather models anticipate much, but they do not account for snow-cover, so we've got that going for us too (for those who don't know, snowpack helps keep temps down a tiny bit).

It looks like the temps in the northern parts of NH and ME will stay low enough to keep precip as snow and with the wind coming in from the cold air mass it will hopefully sure up the snowfall. Further south in NH and in MA it may not hold as snowfall.