Have yearly snow averages decreased?

[SkiDog]

Anyone know if the yearly snow averages, in say New England, have really declined at all or been effected by what seems to be "global warming"? Snows certainly seem to fall later and later every year, but I was interested in finding out if the yearly averages have been changing at all? Say maybe the last 15 years have totals started declining or is it just that the season starts a little later?

Im really lazy and don't much like researching these things, but I know some of you are VERY handy with this crap..

eh it was a thought.

M

 

[Greg]

Well, this graph plots the snowfall depth on Mansfield for 2006-07 vs. the average. I have no idea what time frame makes up the "average":

http://www.uvm.edu/~empact/data/gen...pth&year[]=2006&width=600&height=400&smooth=0

Simply change the year parameter in the URL for previous seasons. For example, for 2005-06, use:

http://www.uvm.edu/~empact/data/gendateplot.php3?table=SummitStation&title=Mount+Mansfield+Summit+Station&xskip=7&xparam=Date&yparam=Depth&year%5B%5D=[B]2005[/B]&width=600&height=400&smooth=0

 

[Marc]

Anyone know if the yearly snow averages, in say New England, have really declined at all or been effected by what seems to be "global warming"? Snows certainly seem to fall later and later every year, but I was interested in finding out if the yearly averages have been changing at all? Say maybe the last 15 years have totals started declining or is it just that the season starts a little later?

Im really lazy and don't much like researching these things, but I know some of you are VERY handy with this crap..

eh it was a thought.

M

I'm lazy too, plus I'm young, so I don't have the memory of the way things were back in the day, but I can tell you about season starts... well, last year Steve got some great turns in at the end of October, and I skied at Stowe on November 3rd I think in what looked like mid winter conditions...

And the year before, I skied at Killington in what was a pretty epic powder day the day after Halloween.

Anectdotal, yes, but like I said, I'm lazy... so I'm content to just underachieve.

 

[awf170]

My guess is that the since 1990 the snow has actually been above average on Mt. Mansfield since the mid 90's to early 00's were so good, and since then it just has been average. I bet southern new england has been down, but I really don't care about southern New England. As long as the high elevation, northern latitude places keep getting snow I'm fine. Heck, it will make driving easier if it rains all the way up to Lincoln, NH.

(Ducks for cover from the CT crew)


Old people only remember good winters from 20-30 years ago, and just think every winter was like that. There were some truly horrible winters in the 60's, way worse than any of the last few.

(Ducks for cover from SRO and OSM)

 

[deadheadskier]

I don't necessarily think there's an appreciable drop in average snowfall, it's more the very evident rise in termeperature that has had the big impact.

 

[deadheadskier]

http://www.k2trav.com/2005/snowfallhistory.html



only for Sugarloaf, but there's no real apparent trend. Isn't k2trav a member here?

 

[Marc]

Well, even average surface temperatures for New England, or even just the US is not very meaningful from a global warming standpoint. Many climatologists on both sides of the debate point out that local trends don't mean a whole lot global warming may very possibly lead to localized cooling for a period for certain areas (for instance, if the gulf stream is interrupted, England and to a lesser extent New England may see a temporary drastic drop in average surface temperatures).

 

[snoseek]

64-65 looked like a real depressing year, following a depressing year.

 

[Marc]

Yeah, whatever you say, snowman...

 

[kingslug]

How about this http://www.telemarktips.com/Snofall.html

 

[Greg]

My guess is that the since 1990 the snow has actually been above average on Mt. Mansfield since the mid 90's to early 00's were so good, and since then it just has been average.

I put together this animation using the Mansfield stake data from 1990-91 to 2006-07:

I had to resize some of the frames as the really big and low snow years used a different scale on the y axis so that's why a few look a little screwy. I wanted to keep the average graph proportionate; otherwise this animation means little.

Certainly no real trends there. I guess the biggest observation I can make is let's hope for another 1995-96 or 200-01 and not 1990-91 or 1994-95. :blink: Since 2004-05, the winters have been a bit below average with last year looking the most screwy of all of them so perhaps we're due for another big one?

 

[GrilledSteezeSandwich]

New York City has had above average snowfall three of the past four winters...Boston has had some huge snowfall years recently..Last season was definitely above average for northern Vermont..

Nice animation Greg but there could be a winter with above average snowfall at the Mount Mansfield snowstake but below average depth due to several thaws..

 

[Greg]

Nice animation Greg but there could be a winter with above average snowfall at the Mount Mansfield snowstake but below average depth due to several thaws..

Of course, but I would rather have a season that sees consistent snow depth throughout vs. a few big dumps with melting in between.

 

[SkiDog]

Looks like snow totals havent changed much, just seem to be happening later in the season.....therefore shortening it.

M

 

[deadheadskier]

Looks like snow totals havent changed much, just seem to be happening later in the season.....therefore shortening it.

M

True, but I'll GLADLY trade days in early November for ones in late April / Early May like last season.

As painful as the season was until Valentines Day, from then on there was nearly 3 months of GREAT skiing.

 

[Greg]

True, but I'll GLADLY trade days in early November for ones in late April / Early May like last season.

Ironic that you made this post right as I was starting this thread:

http://forums.alpinezone.com/18855-early-late.html

 

[Marc]

Looks like snow totals havent changed much, just seem to be happening later in the season.....therefore shortening it.

M

I don't see that trend.... see '91-'95 and '02-'04 for data contrary to shortening seasons (or at least, contrary to later starting trend)...

 

[kingslug]

Just plotted the totals for Hunter from 81 to 01. They are all over the place, like a roller coaster. Can't see any pattern. Up a few years then really down and back and forth.

 

[bvibert]

I put together this animation using the Mansfield stake data from 1990-91 to 2006-07:

Cool animation Greg! That makes it much easier to see that there haven't been any real trends, at least at the Mansfield stake.

 

[bobbutts]

Very generally there's been above average temperatures and also moisture, so that favors the highest elevations and northern-most resorts. Also somewhat more powerful and more frequent coastal storms, so more big #'s from single storms all the northeast, but also more mixing/changeovers.