Hastur
Well-known member
no they aren't.
Where do you come up with this stuff?
See Hawk's post.
impact is delayed. Fed expecting inflation to rise as we head into the second half of the year.
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Jay Peak bombshell
- Thread starter VTKilarney
- Start date
Where do you come up with this stuff?
See Hawk's post.
impact is delayed. Fed expecting inflation to rise as we head into the second half of the year.
Former Sunday Rivah Rat
Active member
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drjeff
Well-known member
Just a thought, since I riled this thread up a few days ago...
Thinking about the fact that literally EVERY weekend of the 13 weekends that comprised Spring in Northern VT (and most of the Northeast as well) had some form of precipitation on atleast 1, if not both days at times, how much of the mentioned in this thread drop in bookings/attendance at Jay and Hill Farmstead from stay mid March (when the Tariffs were 1st announced) on were likely due to Tariffs or the weather?
If 1 is honest, While Jay certainly had some late season powder days, those catered more to the hard core day trip crew (like AZ has a bunch of members for sure) vs the families from either the US OR Canada, more likely to stay at one of Jay's hotels or affiliated condos, who are more likely to go late season if the weather is good both days.
As for the Hill Farmstead mention... Weather again as a possibility.. Plus if one is honest about the craft beer industry, even for most "elite" craft brewers, most are seeing a decline in business, and many mid to lesser tier craft brewers across the Country are closing. That craft beer bubble that Covid helped accelerate, is past its prime. Again is HF, who certainly is in the top 3% of breweries out there in my book, seeing a decline from the Tariffs or just part of the overall craft beer softening market?
You just have to put some critical thinking skills on top of what the main stream media tells you.
Heck, I am guessing some of my New England area skeptics in this thread recently were shocked with the Karen Reed trial acquittal on the murder/manslaughter charges yesterday, if they only followed mainstream media. Whereas if one followed online (often called alternative or even alt right) media, where often they did full investigative journalism vs just read a script, yesterday's verdict, based on the factual testimony, was a foregone conclusion.
A STRONG sense of skepticism in any form of media, since they realized that viewership #'s and/or clicks on stories, which encourage sensationalized stories/narratives to get more clicks to appeal to advertising $$, vs just reporting the facts, changed things forever. And IMHO not in a good way
Thinking about the fact that literally EVERY weekend of the 13 weekends that comprised Spring in Northern VT (and most of the Northeast as well) had some form of precipitation on atleast 1, if not both days at times, how much of the mentioned in this thread drop in bookings/attendance at Jay and Hill Farmstead from stay mid March (when the Tariffs were 1st announced) on were likely due to Tariffs or the weather?
If 1 is honest, While Jay certainly had some late season powder days, those catered more to the hard core day trip crew (like AZ has a bunch of members for sure) vs the families from either the US OR Canada, more likely to stay at one of Jay's hotels or affiliated condos, who are more likely to go late season if the weather is good both days.
As for the Hill Farmstead mention... Weather again as a possibility.. Plus if one is honest about the craft beer industry, even for most "elite" craft brewers, most are seeing a decline in business, and many mid to lesser tier craft brewers across the Country are closing. That craft beer bubble that Covid helped accelerate, is past its prime. Again is HF, who certainly is in the top 3% of breweries out there in my book, seeing a decline from the Tariffs or just part of the overall craft beer softening market?
You just have to put some critical thinking skills on top of what the main stream media tells you.
Heck, I am guessing some of my New England area skeptics in this thread recently were shocked with the Karen Reed trial acquittal on the murder/manslaughter charges yesterday, if they only followed mainstream media. Whereas if one followed online (often called alternative or even alt right) media, where often they did full investigative journalism vs just read a script, yesterday's verdict, based on the factual testimony, was a foregone conclusion.
A STRONG sense of skepticism in any form of media, since they realized that viewership #'s and/or clicks on stories, which encourage sensationalized stories/narratives to get more clicks to appeal to advertising $$, vs just reporting the facts, changed things forever. And IMHO not in a good way
BenedictGomez
Well-known member
Impact MIGHT be delayed, we do not know.
But frankly if you want to make that argument it's far better to logically argue for preemptive channel stuffing, and not this, "we're still selling the non-tariff stuff" at the moment, that you're espousing. Channel stuffing could definitely explain it. The problem? If we have myriad systemic channel stuffing across all sectors of our economy, we should simultaneously experience unusual blow-out 2Q25s in some rather obvious places, but so far we have no indication that that's happening, suggestive of more status quo economic activity, despite the predictions. And I'm guilty of this as well, I too assumed we'd have significant impacts by now - we havent.
It's quite possible the channel stuffing hypothesis will be correct and explain why we're not seeing pain yet, but in terms of your snide, "where do you come up with this stuff" - it's pretty obvious that you will be shocked to realize that inflationary effects should have already been present by now. By the Fed's own analysis we should already be experiencing higher prices and inflation. SPOILER ALERT: We're not.
In fact, the current issue with Iran will have FAR MORE of an inflationary impact than what we're currently experiencing by tariffs. Yet you don't hear incessant hand-wringing about that (probably because they cant blame Trump.......yet).
BenedictGomez
Well-known member
That depends; can we blame Trump for the non-stop rain in Vermont?
If yes - then LOTS of impact!
If no - then no impact at all.
Yep, definitely the poor weather delivered by the good lord himself that is the primary factor here. Good call.
I bet God believes in the 51st state destiny too.
I bet God believes in the 51st state destiny too.
thebigo
Well-known member
This is not how it works in my industry and I suspect most industries relying on global commodities. We always price based on replacement cost. In other words when building a quote, we use the cost to replace the raw material not the legacy cost to purchase the material. Using legacy cost would expose the company to the very real risk of being unable to replace depleted inventory.
The most visible example is gas stations. Gas stations change their prices based on the next tanker of fuel not the last delivery. This is the reason prices can change daily despite irregular deliveries.
I can tell you that healthcare capital equipment doesn't work like your industry. Prices on everything from beds to MRI machines are negotiated on 2-3 year terms at minimum; often 5 years. The only thing that changes short term is companies will increase service and installation labor pricing to help make up for lost margin on the equipment itself.
The other increasingly common practice is diversifying manufacturing geography to dodge tariffs. Two of my former companies are building new plants in Singapore to change country of origin from China when it can benefit them. The reality is the new plants are just final assembly locations. General Electric does this. Most of their healthcare products are built overseas except for a few finishing touches here so they can say "Made in America."
For certain products at least, final assembly location is surprisingly not the determining factor in whether the Chinese tariffs impact the prices. The PC manufacturer we use has shifted their motherboard production for their laptops to another country (maybe Vietnam?) but still does final assembly at their Chinese factories. Since the motherboards are being made in Vietnam, apparently they can state the laptops are made in Vietnam and avoid the Chinese tariffs even though they are still doing final assembly in China.
As someone that handles a substantial amount of our IT equipment purchasing for my company, I can state the tariff impact has significantly varied from manufacturer to manufacturer. Some manufacturers have not changed prices one bit. Others have changed prices nearly every time a new tariff went into effect. Others held off changing for a while, but then made larger changes later on. It has been an absolute nightmare for me from a PO perspective. Sometimes just between when a PO is submitted, approved and received by our vendor the prices have already changed and the PO needs to be updated...
BenedictGomez
Well-known member
One of them also in Malaysia and Mexico too.
I still bet the majority of the product gets made in China.
Abubob
Well-known member
mister moose
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Perhaps. But the payment goes to Malasia, Singapore, or Mexico, or Vietnam, or any number of countries. That reduces the large trade deficit with China, a very important difference.
Typical egomaniacal American thought to assume that the supply chain changes by this company are solely reactionary to current US tariffs. The US is the third largest market for them. It's not just a game of whack a mole to get their products here cheaper. It's about maintaining as many trade advantages they can everywhere. But you keep on MAGAing Moose.
mister moose
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My comment is directed at the bigger picture, not just your example company. If that company has other international markets that's not the point. Again, it's the dangerously large trade imbalance compounded by being an adversarial country. For some reason you keep choosing to make it both a personal attack and MAGA related.
kbroderick
Active member
FWIW, border crossings into Maine are down as well:
(From the Portland Press Herald)
(From the Portland Press Herald)
machski
Well-known member
Since this is the Jay thread and today is the summer solstice, remember they have a snow sliding event today with all their retained and tarped snow!!
No your comment wasn't about bigger picture and still isn't. To suggest otherwise is disingenuous.
I'll save further comment on trade relations as we're drifting from the point of this thread.
Back to the business of Jay. Cool that they're doing the event today. It's my sincere hope that Steve Wright is wrong and Jay does well and can finally get the Bonnie done. It's desperately needed.
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