LiftBlog Reports that Smuggs and Stowe are Exploring an Interconnect Gondola

[Newpylong]

Yeah, saw that as well in a more detailed account after I posted. Still think that crowd will rebel and protest if this moves beyond permit study status

Also, kind of a pathetic hourly capacity at just 1200PH. Granted that is in each direction, but still.

I don't think capacity matters, it's a connector lift.

 

[thetrailboss]

You underestimate the sheer number of total fucking idiots carrying these megapasses. That area is gonna see way more volume and people will pushing into zones in there that will equal bad news.

This.

 

[thetrailboss]

Nevermind that lift might draw 100k more skier visits a season from people seeing the advertisement for "The Most Epic Ski Experience in the East. 1500 acres, 2600 vertical, 194 trails, 3 gondolas, superlative, superlative, superlative.

“I knew you’d see it my way! Plus everything we do is EPIC!”

 

[thebigo]

The community connector:

Community Connector

www.smuggs.com

 

[Tonyr]

I am in the minority that Vail would not buy Smuggs. To replace all 3 main lifts with hsq's or more would be $30m+ easily as those are all long, remote, and rocky lifts. All the lodging at Smuggs is antique and needs replacing. Snowmaking would need to be doubled to adequately have a chance at handing the crowds. It's be a massive investment, even for Vail. And what's the ROI? None. No one who hasn't bought an epic pass yet is now going to now because Vail buys Smuggs, outside of a few locals within an hour's drive.

I actually think that Vail ends up supporting this project and uses turn-key plans for a gondola to increase it's asking price and sells Stowe. Vail will never be able to get the town to work with them over the road and parking, and Vail has pissed off so many Stowe regulars. What's the ROI of owning a resort with a ton of access problems when you don't even own the main profit generation- real estate. Stowe is a drop in Vail's portfolio but still very valuable, and would be even more valuable if attached to Smuggler's Notch.

Flip it for a huge profit, looks good on the balance sheet, and looks good in front of regulators to end any whispers of monopoly

I like your contrairan view on the topic, it's an interesting take, but I think it's highly unlikely that Vail sells Stowe. Merging it with Smuggs then developing that side would make it the crown jewel resort on the east coast. (Atleast from a ski executives perspective) The combination of that terrain, when snow conditions are good, makes it better than alot of resorts out west.

On another note, Real Estate development is typically done by third parties. I'd imagine Vail stays away from putting up their own money to build out a new hotel at the base but who knows. The real expense, other then the purchase price, is snowmaking and replacing the lifts as you mentioned. Saddleback for example sold for 6.5 mill. Assume Smugs gets triple that price, add an extra 30 mill in for lifts and snowmaking and it's roughly the same amount Vail paid for Stowe which was 50 million. I'm not sure what the ROI would be on the combined resort but I'd bet the math works as it certainly appears that Vail would like to aquire Smuggs whether we all like it or not.

 

[thetrailboss]

The community connector:

Community Connector

www.smuggs.com

Better late than never I guess…

 

[thetrailboss]

I like your contrairan view on the topic, it's an interesting take, but I think it's highly unlikely that Vail sells Stowe. Merging it with Smuggs then developing that side would make it the crown jewel resort on the east coast. (Atleast from a ski executives perspective) The combination of that terrain, when snow conditions are good, makes it better than alot of resorts out west.

On another note, Real Estate development is typically done by third parties. I'd imagine Vail stays away from putting up their own money to build out a new hotel at the base but who knows. The real expense, other then the purchase price, is snowmaking and replacing the lifts as you mentioned. Saddleback for example sold for 6.5 mill. Assume Smugs gets triple that price, add an extra 30 mill in for lifts and snowmaking and it's roughly the same amount Vail paid for Stowe which was 50 million. I'm not sure what the ROI would be on the combined resort but I'd bet the math works as it certainly appears that Vail would like to aquire Smuggs whether we all like it or not.

$50 mill for Stowe is cheap in comparison to $78 mill for Jay (although the latter included hotels, water park, etc.)

 

[thetrailboss]

Or how about Powdr's revenge!

If it were POWDR then there would be a very flashy media campaign to get the State to pay for that gondola

 

[kancamagus]

I’m going to take a contrarian view to the doomers. My home mountain these days is Palisades Tahoe, formerly Squaw Valley + Alpine Meadows. Vibes aren't that dissimilar to Stowe and Smuggs, with Alpine being the “locals side” with more chill people, and the former Squaw side side having a lot more Jerries from Dec through late March / early April (mix of uptight Bay Area folks, and tourists), but is fine for April and beyond spring skiing. All the locals here thought that the new Base to Base gondola that opened this season was going to ruin Alpine, that it would somehow cause a bajillion jerries to show up at Alpine and ruin their stashes, that it would be overrun, that an extra lift to the top of KT would ruin the mothership, blah, blah, blah.

None of that happened. Anecdotally, all lift lines at Alpine were shorter this season except Treeline Circle, which last season was basically ski on at any time and this year frequently had a 5-10 minute wait. TLC serves lower intermediate terrain from the mid station, and some decent expert terrain and a connector to the back side from the upper portion. Most folks in the TLC line appeared to be lower intermediate skiers. Also anecdotally, there were a lot less kids (without parents) and teens at Alpine. Again, anecdotally I think most of these kids left the Alpine side to go “ski the big mountain” on the Olympic valley side of Palisades.

So why didn’t the sky fall when the new lift opened? Well that’s all it was, a new lift. A lift that hold people traveling in both directions. when those people are on the connector lift, they aren’t in other lift lines. And it turns out, a decent amount of people took the lift in both directions, so it wasn’t a one-way traffic jam that overran the Alpine side.

Now the Palisades B2B gondola has an even more visually enticing terrain it passes over than the Stowe-Smuggs connector - the private White Wolf land and wilderness conservation land that is off limits. especially this season with the impressive snow pack, there are some great lines that one can see perfectly from the lift. And yet, on the handful of times I took the Gondi this season, never saw any of these poached.

So I say let’s go, let’s build it.

 

[Tonyr]

$50 mill for Stowe is cheap in comparison to $78 mill for Jay (although the latter included hotels, water park, etc.)

Yes that is the big difference, Jay was purchased at a huge discount to it's buildout price. The sale of Jay included all of the real estate at the base which I believe cost aorund 200 million to build. The Spruce Peak hotel/residences at their base was not included in the sale of Stowe which is why Jay sold for more than Stowe.

 

[SnowRock]

If it gets built, maybe vail can put Stowe/Smuggs on a super premium pass level and go with AIG era pricing… maybe 3K. Sometimes seems to be what everyone is yearning for… 2K+ passes.

 

[skiur]

I am in the minority that Vail would not buy Smuggs. To replace all 3 main lifts with hsq's or more would be $30m+ easily as those are all long, remote, and rocky lifts. All the lodging at Smuggs is antique and needs replacing. Snowmaking would need to be doubled to adequately have a chance at handing the crowds. It's be a massive investment, even for Vail. And what's the ROI? None. No one who hasn't bought an epic pass yet is now going to now because Vail buys Smuggs, outside of a few locals within an hour's drive.

I actually think that Vail ends up supporting this project and uses turn-key plans for a gondola to increase it's asking price and sells Stowe. Vail will never be able to get the town to work with them over the road and parking, and Vail has pissed off so many Stowe regulars. What's the ROI of owning a resort with a ton of access problems when you don't even own the main profit generation- real estate. Stowe is a drop in Vail's portfolio but still very valuable, and would be even more valuable if attached to Smuggler's Notch.

Flip it for a huge profit, looks good on the balance sheet, and looks good in front of regulators to end any whispers of monopoly

Your insane. Vail is not going to sell stowe. It is the quintessential Vail resort on the east coast. If Vail were to sell something on the east coast (which they aren't) it would be the NH resorts. Stowe is the absolute last place they would sell.

 

[Tonyr]

I’m going to take a contrarian view to the doomers. My home mountain these days is Palisades Tahoe, formerly Squaw Valley + Alpine Meadows. Vibes aren't that dissimilar to Stowe and Smuggs, with Alpine being the “locals side” with more chill people, and the former Squaw side side having a lot more Jerries from Dec through late March / early April (mix of uptight Bay Area folks, and tourists), but is fine for April and beyond spring skiing. All the locals here thought that the new Base to Base gondola that opened this season was going to ruin Alpine, that it would somehow cause a bajillion jerries to show up at Alpine and ruin their stashes, that it would be overrun, that an extra lift to the top of KT would ruin the mothership, blah, blah, blah.

None of that happened. Anecdotally, all lift lines at Alpine were shorter this season except Treeline Circle, which last season was basically ski on at any time and this year frequently had a 5-10 minute wait. TLC serves lower intermediate terrain from the mid station, and some decent expert terrain and a connector to the back side from the upper portion. Most folks in the TLC line appeared to be lower intermediate skiers. Also anecdotally, there were a lot less kids (without parents) and teens at Alpine. Again, anecdotally I think most of these kids left the Alpine side to go “ski the big mountain” on the Olympic valley side of Palisades.

So why didn’t the sky fall when the new lift opened? Well that’s all it was, a new lift. A lift that hold people traveling in both directions. when those people are on the connector lift, they aren’t in other lift lines. And it turns out, a decent amount of people took the lift in both directions, so it wasn’t a one-way traffic jam that overran the Alpine side.

Now the Palisades B2B gondola has an even more visually enticing terrain it passes over than the Stowe-Smuggs connector - the private White Wolf land and wilderness conservation land that is off limits. especially this season with the impressive snow pack, there are some great lines that one can see perfectly from the lift. And yet, on the handful of times I took the Gondi this season, never saw any of these poached.

So I say let’s go, let’s build it.

That's interesting, I think you could probably say the same thing about the Park City/Canyons crowd wise too post connection. I find that gondola ride empty all of the time. I've never waited in line either way to cross over from one side to the other. I think most people visiting Park City and the Canyons ski the majority of their time on the same side they stay at. Park City and Palisades Tahoe are substantially larger than the combination of Stowe and Smuggs though but I tend to agree with you on your crowding point.

A separate question for you, how often was the new gondola at Palasides Tahoe open this season? It was closed the whole time I was there in March. The wind was knocking the gondola cabins off track, and I heard that the gondola there was closed alot this season. I stayed on the Olympic Valley side and would have loved to try Alpine out one of the days but even if the gondola was running I would have hesitated using it as we didn't want to get stuck over at Apline at the end of the day.

 

[Tonyr]

Your insane. Vail is not going to sell stowe. It is the quintessential Vail resort on the east coast. If Vail were to sell something on the east coast (which they aren't) it would be the NH resorts. Stowe is the absolute last place they would sell.

Stowe is the "Vail" of the east coast.

 

[KustyTheKlown]

I’m going to take a contrarian view to the doomers. My home mountain these days is Palisades Tahoe, formerly Squaw Valley + Alpine Meadows. Vibes aren't that dissimilar to Stowe and Smuggs, with Alpine being the “locals side” with more chill people, and the former Squaw side side having a lot more Jerries from Dec through late March / early April (mix of uptight Bay Area folks, and tourists), but is fine for April and beyond spring skiing. All the locals here thought that the new Base to Base gondola that opened this season was going to ruin Alpine, that it would somehow cause a bajillion jerries to show up at Alpine and ruin their stashes, that it would be overrun, that an extra lift to the top of KT would ruin the mothership, blah, blah, blah.

None of that happened. Anecdotally, all lift lines at Alpine were shorter this season except Treeline Circle, which last season was basically ski on at any time and this year frequently had a 5-10 minute wait. TLC serves lower intermediate terrain from the mid station, and some decent expert terrain and a connector to the back side from the upper portion. Most folks in the TLC line appeared to be lower intermediate skiers. Also anecdotally, there were a lot less kids (without parents) and teens at Alpine. Again, anecdotally I think most of these kids left the Alpine side to go “ski the big mountain” on the Olympic valley side of Palisades.

So why didn’t the sky fall when the new lift opened? Well that’s all it was, a new lift. A lift that hold people traveling in both directions. when those people are on the connector lift, they aren’t in other lift lines. And it turns out, a decent amount of people took the lift in both directions, so it wasn’t a one-way traffic jam that overran the Alpine side.

Now the Palisades B2B gondola has an even more visually enticing terrain it passes over than the Stowe-Smuggs connector - the private White Wolf land and wilderness conservation land that is off limits. especially this season with the impressive snow pack, there are some great lines that one can see perfectly from the lift. And yet, on the handful of times I took the Gondi this season, never saw any of these poached.

So I say let’s go, let’s build it.

I just don’t think it’s comparable. Squaw and Alpine have had shared pass/ticket access for years. People already skied both places on the same pass, and then they built a lift to make it easier. Smuggs is remote and hard to reach and doesn’t share any access with Stowe. This lift cuts an hour drive off the trip to Smuggs and gives access to hordes of bargain bin walmart pass people.

 

[Edd]

Letting your mind wander a bit with those areas being operated like one, big ski areas love to limit trails early and late season (think Jordan at SR, South Peak at Loon). I could see Smuggs operations getting throttled in favor of Stowe.

 

[snoseek]

A surface lift would be the logical solution for a whole Lotta reasons or at least a fixed grip chair. I suppose that doesn't pump stock prices though.

 

[machski]

Letting your mind wander a bit with those areas being operated like one, big ski areas love to limit trails early and late season (think Jordan at SR, South Peak at Loon). I could see Smuggs operations getting throttled in favor of Stowe.

In all fairness to your comparisons, the ops at SR and Loon are likely to change moving forward. SR's investment in the J8 and this summers huge Snowmaking overhaul and water capacity boost on that side will likely tip them towards keeping that side open longer and open earlier than they have in the past. Part of the reason was to put that hotel in play more often and more reliably.
As to Loon, now that South will get THE learning area at the resort along with a true base area, I expect we'll see it operated more consistently midseason and at least early season (they will likely shut South early still as folks are taking lessons late season typically).
This matters because Smuggs, while it has some age, has a nice base "village" that tends to score it very well with families. If Vail were to buy Smuggs, I'm not sure they'd be fast to truncate the season over there. That said, they do now ass hut down the Spruce side by late March typically which would sever the connection. And since Spruce is the South facing terrain of both areas, it would be interesting to see how they'd play that part.

 

[machski]

A surface lift would be the logical solution for a whole Lotta reasons or at least a fixed grip chair. I suppose that doesn't pump stock prices though.

Surface lift to wind protect would be good but it doesn't play well for the intermediate skier/rider and below. You also would have to consider snow coverage (most of the time at that elevation, should be adequate) and getting a cat in there to smooth it out. Chair would be cheaper but it would be considerably cold sit if the lift stops for any appreciable amount of time. Slidebrook would have been a Gondola for sure if not for the sightlines opposition in the valley.

 

[deadheadskier]

In all fairness to your comparisons, the ops at SR and Loon are likely to change moving forward. SR's investment in the J8 and this summers huge Snowmaking overhaul and water capacity boost on that side will likely tip them towards keeping that side open longer and open earlier than they have in the past. Part of the reason was to put that hotel in play more often and more reliably.
As to Loon, now that South will get THE learning area at the resort along with a true base area, I expect we'll see it operated more consistently midseason and at least early season (they will likely shut South early still as folks are taking lessons late season typically).
This matters because Smuggs, while it has some age, has a nice base "village" that tends to score it very well with families. If Vail were to buy Smuggs, I'm not sure they'd be fast to truncate the season over there. That said, they do now ass hut down the Spruce side by late March typically which would sever the connection. And since Spruce is the South facing terrain of both areas, it would be interesting to see how they'd play that part.

What wouldn't surprise me in the long run is this new gondola becoming the middle section of a three stage lift. Spruce quad and Sterling Double also become gondolas. Then they could run it into the evenings so guests can travel back and forth between resorts for dining and entertainment, you create a reliable connection between both resorts early season when Big Spruce terrain hasn't opened and during the summer so Stowe / Smuggs guests don't have to drive through the notch to experience the attractions the other side has to offer. I'd be very surprised if this idea hasn't at least been brought up in long term planning discussions.