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Permanent Industry Changes in the Post-COVID World

drjeff

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We are not at herd immunity - there is not actual percentage but 70-80% vaccinated/recovered from covid is what is being targeted by many health organizations.

This is a good description from John Hopkins

What are the possibilities for how herd immunity could play out?​

In the worst case (for example, if we stop distancing and mask wearing and remove limits on crowded indoor gatherings), we will continue to see additional waves of surging infection. The virus will infect—and kill—many more people before our vaccination program reaches everyone. And deaths aren’t the only problem. The more people the virus infects, the more chances it has to mutate. This can increase transmission risk, decrease the effectiveness of vaccines, and make the pandemic harder to control in the long run.

In the best case, we vaccinate people as quickly as possible while maintaining distancing and other prevention measures to keep infection levels low. This will take concerted effort on everyone’s part. But if we continue vaccinating the population at the current rate, in the U.S. we should see meaningful effects on transmission by the end of the summer of 2021. While there is not going to be a “herd immunity day” where life immediately goes back to normal, this approach gives us the best long-term chance of beating the pandemic.

The most likely outcome is somewhere in the middle of these extremes. During the spring and early summer (or longer, if efforts to vaccinate the population stall), we will likely continue to see infection rates rise and fall. When infection rates fall, we may relax distancing measures—but this can lead to a rebound in infections as people interact with each other more closely. We then may need to re-implement these measures to bring infections down again.
If that 70-80% figure is accurate for herd immunity status, chances are that we are getting close. 165 or so million with at least 1 dose, a little under 35 million confirmed cases of COVID in the US (sure there certainly are some who are statistics in both of those categories, no doubt about that) so that gets to somewhere around 200 million people. Then the variable is, how many people, asymptomatically had COVID, and never got tested/confirmed that they had it? Those estimates have been all over the map with, but it seems to be agreed my most public health folks, that that undiagnosed, asymptomatic COVID case number is probably close to, if not more than the number of actually diagnosed cases, which would add say another 25 million or so to the total vaccinated and/or had and recovered total, and now we're getting into that 70% range.

My personal hunch is that if we're not at herd immunity yet, we're quite close, and as I stated before, it sure seems that within the "most vulnerable" population that we are there.

Doubtful if we can actually have an accurate number of the had COVID and recovered population, as there certainly are a significant number of people who have had asymptomatic cases and if the need for testing for either contact tracing or some other obligation where a negative test was needed at a certain time, they may have never known
 

drjeff

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As for 18+ getting both shots - I have 2 sons who fall in that and have had their 1st shots and are getting their 2nd this week. Oldest son just got his 2nd last week.
I've got a 15 yr old who is in that had 1, waiting on for the calendar to reach a certain day for dose 2, category as well
 

boston_e

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I've got a 15 yr old who is in that had 1, waiting on for the calendar to reach a certain day for dose 2, category as well
My 12 and 15 year olds have both had 1 so far.

When we went there was not a high demand line out the door, but there was certainly a steady trickle of people going through so hopefully there is a good percentage of the unvaccinated who have just been waiting for convenience, or for easy availability so as not to be waiting in long lines etc.
 

flakeydog

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There is this (see map, % w/1 shot, yellow is <40%, dark green >60%): vaccination rates vary by state/region. We may get up to 60+ as a nation but there are likely to be areas that never get above 50%. That leaves enough room for the virus to fester a bit in those areas leaving open the door for this to come back in another form. I see this as a bit of a team effort type of thing for the greater good. Clearly a lot of others do not see it that way.

Oh- and if we are not going to use all of the vaccine, send some to Canada! asap! Border states are getting killed here economically.
1621950727375.png
 

BenedictGomez

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remember the population under 12 is almost 50mil so 15% can't be vaccinated

By early 2Q22 I think even 5 year olds will be able to receive vaccine. PFE's been pretty aggressive with this program to their credit.
 
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deadheadskier

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Isn't the direction we are heading a combination Flu / Coronavirus vaccine taken annually? This new class of mRNA vaccine seems to be a game changer. Much greater efficacy than traditional Flu vaccines that many folks passed on because they were just an educated guess.

Sign me up. $40 well spent if not free depending on your insurance situation.
 

BenedictGomez

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Isn't the direction we are heading a combination Flu / Coronavirus vaccine taken annually? This new class of mRNA vaccine seems to be a game changer. Much greater efficacy than traditional Flu vaccines that many folks passed on because they were just an educated guess.

In terms of influenza the most cutting-edge thing being worked on is a universal vaccine which would replace the trivalent vaccine. Still years away, but that will be the real game-changer. Millions of uninformed people dont get the flu shot each year because, "it only works 40% of the time anyway", and it would remove that unfortunate issue & perhaps dramatically increase flu vaccine uptake, or so is the hope.
 

deadheadskier

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In terms of influenza the most cutting-edge thing being worked on is a universal vaccine which would replace the trivalent vaccine. Still years away, but that will be the real game-changer. Millions of uninformed people dont get the flu shot each year because, "it only works 40% of the time anyway", and it would remove that unfortunate issue & perhaps dramatically increase flu vaccine uptake, or so is the hope.

Hard to say if a "universal" flu shot will result in a dramatic increase in uptake.

Looking back at my own history; prior to 2012 when I started working in healthcare, I maybe got the flu shot 2-3 times in my adult life. Those occurrences were when it was convenient and "free." Since then I always have, but only because it's essentially required to work in healthcare.

It wasn't because I was uninformed that I didn't get the shot, I just had that invincible mentality that many young people do. I wasn't required to have one as a student at UVM or any prior occupation after college. Hell I probably didn't even get a routine check up for close to a decade following graduation from college even though I always had health insurance. Men in particular simply avoid the doctor in their 20s and 30s. Women less so only because of gynecological needs. That mentality only starts to change for most when "wake up calls" happen. Either when a loved one gets sick or becoming a parent seems to be the two big ones.

I think convenient and "free" really are the two most important factors in flu or Covid shot uptake vs efficacy.
 

jimmywilson69

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I've never gotten the flue shot. Mainly becasue in my adult life I am certain I've never had the flu. As the page is turning towards 45, I have at least started to think about getting it. I'd be likely even more likely to get it if it was included with a COVID booster this fall.
 

tumbler

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There is this (see map, % w/1 shot, yellow is <40%, dark green >60%): vaccination rates vary by state/region. We may get up to 60+ as a nation but there are likely to be areas that never get above 50%. That leaves enough room for the virus to fester a bit in those areas leaving open the door for this to come back in another form. I see this as a bit of a team effort type of thing for the greater good. Clearly a lot of others do not see it that way.

Oh- and if we are not going to use all of the vaccine, send some to Canada! asap! Border states are getting killed here economically.
View attachment 51725
The colors on this map tell an interesting and telling story...
 
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dblskifanatic

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Never got the flu shot..never got the flu..hell.. I barely ever get sick. That one day may change though.

I never got the flu shot either. My father did not either, but at age 50 his doctor suggested getting the flu shot and he would get sick as heck within two weeks. So after a few years he stopped and then at 70 his doctor required that he take it. In fact most of my family do not get the flu shot.

In my case I cannot remember the last time I got really sick.. I did have a 3 day fever back in February of last year before lock down. Took Advil and slept for a day I was fine. So not sure what that was.
 

2Planker

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I never got the flu shot either. My father did not either, but at age 50 his doctor suggested getting the flu shot and he would get sick as heck within two weeks. So after a few years he stopped and then at 70 his doctor required that he take it. In fact most of my family do not get the flu shot.

In my case I cannot remember the last time I got really sick.. I did have a 3 day fever back in February of last year before lock down. Took Advil and slept for a day I was fine. So not sure what that was.
Probably was Covid......
 
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