If that 70-80% figure is accurate for herd immunity status, chances are that we are getting close. 165 or so million with at least 1 dose, a little under 35 million confirmed cases of COVID in the US (sure there certainly are some who are statistics in both of those categories, no doubt about that) so that gets to somewhere around 200 million people. Then the variable is, how many people, asymptomatically had COVID, and never got tested/confirmed that they had it? Those estimates have been all over the map with, but it seems to be agreed my most public health folks, that that undiagnosed, asymptomatic COVID case number is probably close to, if not more than the number of actually diagnosed cases, which would add say another 25 million or so to the total vaccinated and/or had and recovered total, and now we're getting into that 70% range.We are not at herd immunity - there is not actual percentage but 70-80% vaccinated/recovered from covid is what is being targeted by many health organizations.
This is a good description from John Hopkins
What are the possibilities for how herd immunity could play out?In the worst case (for example, if we stop distancing and mask wearing and remove limits on crowded indoor gatherings), we will continue to see additional waves of surging infection. The virus will infect—and kill—many more people before our vaccination program reaches everyone. And deaths aren’t the only problem. The more people the virus infects, the more chances it has to mutate. This can increase transmission risk, decrease the effectiveness of vaccines, and make the pandemic harder to control in the long run.
In the best case, we vaccinate people as quickly as possible while maintaining distancing and other prevention measures to keep infection levels low. This will take concerted effort on everyone’s part. But if we continue vaccinating the population at the current rate, in the U.S. we should see meaningful effects on transmission by the end of the summer of 2021. While there is not going to be a “herd immunity day” where life immediately goes back to normal, this approach gives us the best long-term chance of beating the pandemic.
The most likely outcome is somewhere in the middle of these extremes. During the spring and early summer (or longer, if efforts to vaccinate the population stall), we will likely continue to see infection rates rise and fall. When infection rates fall, we may relax distancing measures—but this can lead to a rebound in infections as people interact with each other more closely. We then may need to re-implement these measures to bring infections down again.
My personal hunch is that if we're not at herd immunity yet, we're quite close, and as I stated before, it sure seems that within the "most vulnerable" population that we are there.
Doubtful if we can actually have an accurate number of the had COVID and recovered population, as there certainly are a significant number of people who have had asymptomatic cases and if the need for testing for either contact tracing or some other obligation where a negative test was needed at a certain time, they may have never known