Ski area bankruptcies

[icecoast1]

Not sure if you will find evidence to support that. I have seen many anecdotal accounts of young healthy people becoming sick.

Response to icecoast1 above. Without data I think you are just flinging poo

Anecdotal accounts of young people getting sick does not make it worse than the flu. Never said young people dont get sick. But in terms of death rate, if you are young and healthy this is no worse than the flu. Data was already posted by someone else if you want to scroll back and find it

 

[ScottySkis]

Not sure if you will find evidence to support that. I have seen many anecdotal accounts of young healthy people becoming sick.

Response to icecoast1 above. Without data I think you are just flinging poo

Plenty of evidence out there of people younger than 40 ill from it to.
I try to due right thing staying inside my apartment self
Since before it became too government attention weeks ago
Music on spodify facecrap ski forum s
Lots of awesome movies
Trying to not watch too much cable

 

[BenedictGomez]

You'll be seeing more people mainstreaming this idea in the next weeks. My only concern is Cat in January's post. if this is true then it seems we call just can't go back to work. The healthcare system couldn't handle it

So, two things on that:

1) It is true there are a lot of younger people in the hospital (I haven't seen the exact percentages from American data, IIRC it's something like 30% in South Korea), but that's because they're the most likely to contract COVID19. Why is that? My guess is because these are the most social and moving about of our society. Or more likely to be on a beach while others stay at home (sigh). Regardless, they will likely make a full recovery as even though younger people who require hospital stays are not dying from coronavirus.

2) Some of those hospitalized < 50 have pre-existing conditions and/or comorbidities (lifelong smoker, COPD, respiratory problems, etc.), and under the idea I laid out, those people would have to quarantine along with the 60+ crowd.

 

[Cat in January]

Anecdotal accounts of young people getting sick does not make it worse than the flu. Never said young people dont get sick. But in terms of death rate, if you are young and healthy this is no worse than the flu. Data was already posted by someone else if you want to scroll back and find it

You said it was no worse than the flu. The data says this is much worse than the flu in terms of hospitalization and icu rates. This is a very different disease in terms of its health impacts on all parts of society. To say otherwise is flat out wrong and contributes to a worsening problem. Educate yourself

 

[Cat in January]

BenedictGomez that is just personal hypothesizing without any background. Again this leads others to false assumptions and possibly poor decisions.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/fauci-u-looking-very-closely-161900234.html

 

[TyWebb]

Jim Cramer is on CNBC & he just stated my exact idea of quarantining everyone over 60 (most likely 63 or 64 depending on the data break) & allowing everyone else to get back to work. He reads AlpineZone!

What ever Cramer says I always vote for the opposite

Don't understand why we just don't let people determine for themselves whether or not they want to shut their businesses down, stay home, etc? If a restaurant is still open, I can deem it as a high risk location and subsequently avoid it. I can self ban. People have worked too hard to have their livelihoods upended like this. I’m not diminishing the virus. However, I cannot abide by this wild govt overreach.

It’s a modern version of fdr’s internment of Japanese Americans. Only this time, people are being interned to their homes.

 

[BenedictGomez]

You said it was no worse than the flu. The data says this is much worse than the flu in terms of hospitalization and icu rates. This is a very different disease in terms of its health impacts on all parts of society. To say otherwise is flat out wrong and contributes to a worsening problem. Educate yourself

I realize you hear everyone say that on TV, but I'm not even sure we can say that yet.

Your post made me examine a bad flu year, and 2017 was REALLY bad. The hospitalization rate that year was over 103 per 100,000 Americans (data below). I used 330,000,000 Americans for my math,and that yields 340,000 common flu hospitalizations that year from flu.


Are we going to get 300,000 coronavirus hospitalizations nationwide?


EDIT: Made a bad math error, had to fix

https://gis.cdc.gov/GRASP/Fluview/FluHospRates.html

 

[icecoast1]

BenedictGomez that is just personal hypothesizing without any background. Again this leads others to false assumptions and possibly poor decisions.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/fauci-u-looking-very-closely-161900234.html

That article actually proves that younger people are much less vulnerable to the virus and it is older people and elderly that are hardest hit by it. Also the data is not broken down as far as how many people, especially under 65 that had pre existing conditions

 

[Edd]

It’s a modern version of fdr’s internment of Japanese Americans. Only this time, people are being interned to their homes.

Breathtakingly stupid statement.

 

[BenedictGomez]

BenedictGomez that is just personal hypothesizing without any background. Again this leads others to false assumptions and possibly poor decisions.

The data you cite (38% from infant to 54) isnt drastically different from the South Korean experience I noted, and unlike Korea it's also based on pretty low 'N's since it's dated.

Also, that birth to 54 age cohort makes up 71% of our population. That obviously needs to be considered.

 

[TyWebb]

Breathtakingly stupid statement.

Instead of giving some anal-alysis, why not take part in the discussion and and explain ...

Why can't people determine for themselves whether or not they want to shut their businesses down, stay home, etc?

If a restaurant is still open, why can't I and others deem it as a high risk location and subsequently avoid it?

Why can't we self ban?

Again I am not diminishing this virus but why should we abide by yet another example of govt overreach authority?

 

[Rowsdower]

Younger individuals who are infected, although they certainly are at risk of developing severe symptoms requiring hospitalization, are mainly a concern because if they are asymptomatic/mildly symptomatic they are still spreading the virus. They serve as a useful vector for the disease, and can infect higher risk populations that they come into contact with.

Also, our healthcare system is built to deal with the flu. We anticipate hospitalizations from seasonal flu and our healthcare system can absorb that kind of strain. However, if you add on top of that a crises that requires x number of beds, ICU space, etc. it quickly strains the system as it cannot absorb the added demand. And keep in mind, covid19 is not just a regular flu as estimates on the mortality rate put it one to two orders of magnitude above the seasonal flu depending on the country you look at. So you're flooding the health system with people that need intensive care, and many of whom will die. And without any social distancing measures or emergency scrambling, however late they're coming, to make more hospital space, you would see those numbers increase even further.

So in short, you're seeing these lockdowns and distancing restrictions because we have to keep new infections/hospitalizations in a range our hospital system can deal with. There's a threshold over which the number of new cases would swamp our healthcare providers. Italy is a good example of what happens in that situation.

 

[Cat in January]

Seems icecoast1 the only data you see is death rates. 55% of cases in NY are 18-49

BG I guess you have been blind to what is happening in Italy, France and Spain in terms of how the hospitals have been overwhelmed. Our rate of infection models theirs only with a lag of several weeks. Do you think President Trump would have taken the course he has putting the economy second (I have never known a more economy first president) if what you say is true?

 

[Cat in January]

TyWebb for the same reasons people can not determine what amount of alcohol they can consume and drive. The costs of disease spread are born by all of us

 

[EPB]

Instead of giving some anal-alysis, why not take part in the discussion and and explain ...

Why can't people determine for themselves whether or not they want to shut their businesses down, stay home, etc?

If a restaurant is still open, why can't I and others deem it as a high risk location and subsequently avoid it?

Why can't we self ban?

Again I am not diminishing this virus but why should we abide by yet another example of govt overreach authority?

I'm with Edd on this one.

Your take is the libertarian version of conflating historical atrocities with managing the border. It's unhelpful at best.

Sitting tight in your home to prevent the spread of a virus is not comparable to being put into an internment camp because you're a Japanese immigrant.

Sent from my VS988 using AlpineZone mobile app

 

[BenedictGomez]

BG I guess you have been blind to what is happening in Italy, France and Spain in terms of how the hospitals have been overwhelmed. Our rate of infection models theirs only with a lag of several weeks. Do you think President Trump would have taken the course he has putting the economy second (I have never known a more economy first president) if what you say is true?

1) For a multitude of reasons, we are not going to be Italy

2) I would never try to predict what POTUS will do

 

[icecoast1]

Younger individuals who are infected, although they certainly are at risk of developing severe symptoms requiring hospitalization, are mainly a concern because if they are asymptomatic/mildly symptomatic they are still spreading the virus. They serve as a useful vector for the disease, and can infect higher risk populations that they come into contact with.

Also, our healthcare system is built to deal with the flu. We anticipate hospitalizations from seasonal flu and our healthcare system can absorb that kind of strain. However, if you add on top of that a crises that requires x number of beds, ICU space, etc. it quickly strains the system as it cannot absorb the added demand. And keep in mind, covid19 is not just a regular flu as estimates on the mortality rate put it one to two orders of magnitude above the seasonal flu depending on the country you look at. So you're flooding the health system with people that need intensive care, and many of whom will die. And without any social distancing measures or emergency scrambling, however late they're coming, to make more hospital space, you would see those numbers increase even further.

So in short, you're seeing these lockdowns and distancing restrictions because we have to keep new infections/hospitalizations in a range our hospital system can deal with. There's a threshold over which the number of new cases would swamp our healthcare providers. Italy is a good example of what happens in that situation.

You could ease the strain on the system and keep the economy going at the same time. Shutting the whole country down is a gross over reaction

 

[Cat in January]

Yes that would mean having a developed coordinated plan with sufficient testing and tracking so we could identify hotspots. Unfortunately time has passed for that to be the route

 

[kingslug]

Cuomo goes to 100% stay at home except for essential services...NYC new cases still rising. Yes we are testing more but the parks are filled with people. If businesses were still open, they would be filled with people. In this case you cannot let the population self govern.
Another mind boggling thing from his updates: we are competing with other states for medical supplies. They are being sold to the highest bidder. I don't even know what to make of that.

 

[icecoast1]

Yes that would mean having a developed coordinated plan with sufficient testing and tracking so we could identify hotspots. Unfortunately time has passed for that to be the route

They should be using the 15 day shutdown to correct that and put a plan in place to start slowly allowing things to get back to normal in the short term, not months from now