Ski Resort Response to COVID-19

[machski]

Maine has begun to increase restrictions again. Back down to 25% restaurant capacity or 50 people in rooms at one time (lesser amount), no bars open. NY/NJ/CT residents are back to 14 day Quarantine requirements. MA has been spared being put on that list so far.

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[JimG.]

You wont have to worry about talking about it while riding the lift, but you'll have plenty of time to argue about it in the lift line

Lift lines will be interesting this season.

 

[drjeff]

Lift lines will be interesting this season.

Guessing many a GM took notice to the lines on opening day at Mt Saint-Sauvier in Quebec yesterday.... Guessing some, who's resorts as of now are going without reservations for this season, may be rethinking that choice today...

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[fbrissette]

Yes, I'm an uneducated Joe in Climate Science. That doesn't mean I'm either a part of the problem (which you haven't identified) or that I cannot be an observer of the performance record in the field.

To be an observer of the performance record in the field, you need to first read the science, and not its deformed/misleading/fraudulent interpretation by the right and the left (yes it goes both ways). And clearly, you have not read the science. Problem is you need to be educated to do so.

This is the equivalent of saying that because I use the term cable instead of wire rope, I cannot comment on chairlifts. I am not worthy to address you.

You need to be educated to really understand why 'climate forecast' is somewhat of an oxymoron.

Here's a forecast <cough> prediction that was made by climate science that was way off. There are still 25 active glaciers in Glacier National Park.

View attachment 27126

A National Park sign ???? Go find me a scientific paper that said Glaciers will be all gone by 2020. Just because an 'Al Gore' type idiot made the National Park Service put up a sign like this does not invalidate a whole scientific field.

Climate science has been inaccurate on sea temperature increase, polar ice mass, and more. The record is not one of accuracy.

Sea temperature is extremely difficult to measure. Before the Argo buoy program we pretty much only had surface temperature. Now that we have sea temperature profiles, modeled and observed sea temperature track quite nicely, and definitely within the uncertainty bounds of both estimates. There is no such thing as polar ice mass.

Can you (or anyone) quantitatively state all the sources of climate change?

Emphatic yes. The sources of climate change have been know for decades (all of them).

Can you (or anyone) state the complete process of how each factor interacts?

Yes and no. Most of the major interactions and feedback are known but the amplitude of many of the feedbacks remains uncertain. This is however a burden of proof that cannot be met by all scientific fields. It's like asking a cancer researcher to state the complete process of how each factor interacts.

QUOTE=mister moose;1051970]
Can you (or anyone) predict (see, I used the word predict in my prior post) with repeatable accuracy future events on the basis of your current level of understanding?
[/QUOTE]

You're asking scientists to predict the future and nobody can do that. The best climate scientists can do, is to provide projections of the future climate based on a series of hypothesis (e.g. future GHG emissions), and to provide uncertainty bounds of those estimates. The great thing with science is that you can go back in time and check it (not the interpretation of politicians and interest groups, the science). If you do so, you will find that climate projections have been very good at the global scale.

 

[Andrew B.]

I remember the climate scientist telling us to beware of a coming ice age back in the 70’s
I even did a project on it in middle school. Teacher was pleased that I agreed with the science.

 

[urungus]

Guessing many a GM took notice to the lines on opening day at Mt Saint-Sauvier in Quebec yesterday.... Guessing some, who's resorts as of now are going without reservations for this season, may be rethinking that choice today...

Any pictures of this ? Doesn’t seem to be anything on google news

 

[NYDB]

 

[fbrissette]

Any pictures of this ? Doesn’t seem to be anything on google news

Can't find anything on the local sites, and did not see anything in the news. They opened on a single run (600 feet vertical), and typically the crowds are small, mostly teenagers and young adults. I doubt the lift line was crazy. But who knows, these are weird times.

Ski equipment is flying off the shelves right now, just like bicycles were the spring. Some popular skis in popular lengths are already gone and cannot be found anywhere in Canada, with nothing left in the warehouses.

EDIT: holy cow, just saw NY dirtbag pic. I stand corrected. Wow.

 

[abc]

Can't find anything on the local sites, and did not see anything in the news. They opened on a single run (600 feet vertical), and typically the crowds are small, mostly teenagers and young adults. I doubt the lift line was crazy. But who knows, these are weird times.

Ski equipment is flying off the shelves right now, just like bicycles were the spring. Some popular skis in popular lengths are already gone and cannot be found anywhere in Canada, with nothing left in the warehouses.

EDIT: holy cow, just saw NY dirtbag pic. I stand corrected. Wow.

Well, that would be consistent with "ski equipment flying off the shelves" then.

 

[dlague]

Another way to look at it:

In 2020, 22,000 people died from the flu. That makes Covid 10X more deadly than the flu.

Almost 100,000 people were diagnosed yesterday. Some may believe this virus is over-rated, it’s not.

Did you notice that the flu deaths stopped in January? Even the CDC estimates that flu deaths range in the 24 to 60 thousand range but it is not clear as many cases many have been counted as COVID-19.


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[slatham]

View attachment 27127

Hence why many areas are starting with pass holders only, or opening more terrain than usual on day 1, or both. I am sure the areas that open later will be taking note of how things go at the early openers. But the first data point - this pic - is not encouraging for the uncontrolled open.

 

[cdskier]

Hence why many areas are starting with pass holders only, or opening more terrain than usual on day 1, or both. I am sure the areas that open later will be taking note of how things go at the early openers. But the first data point - this pic - is not encouraging for the uncontrolled open.

What's your definition of "uncontrolled open"? MSS was passholders only when they opened this weekend and still had an issue, so this restriction alone may not be enough. Either resorts are going to have to open with multiple pods or they're going to have to do reservations even for passholders potentially if they want to avoid this type of scene.

 

[mikec142]

On a global level? Yes, that is virtually 100% certain to be correct.

In America? I very much doubt it. In fact, I believe the statistical bias in America is that we're likely over-counting COVID19-caused deaths.

I agree that global numbers of infections and deaths are being widely under reported. How can we trust numbers coming out of certain countries?

But I also think that infection numbers are widely under reported (for political reasons) domestically. Its been widely reported that Florida and Texas (among others) aren't reporting numbers accurately. If it's true that infection numbers aren't being reported accurately, it stands to reason that the same folks aren't reporting death numbers accurately either (for the same reasons).

 

[mikec142]

I think sales of these are going to break all-time records & possibly even sell-out & not be available.

Unfortunately I have not been able to find a way to play it via equity as I did with WGO.

My wife read an article in June that talked about restaurants dealing with outdoor dining scenarios in the colder weather. She immediately bought two of these outdoor heaters for $150 each. We mentioned it to local friends who also bought. Since July these types of heaters have been very, very hard to come by. I've seen the same ones we bought being sold on Amazon from third parties for double to triple the price. I will say, here in NJ they've made a huge difference. It's made it much easier for my parents and in-laws to come over and spend time with their grandkids. The best part is when we aren't using the backyard, my parents will set up the heaters and patio furniture about 10 feet apart and invite another couple to come over and socialize. Keeps everyone from going a bit stir crazy.

 

[drjeff]

What's your definition of "uncontrolled open"? MSS was passholders only when they opened this weekend and still had an issue, so this restriction alone may not be enough. Either resorts are going to have to open with multiple pods or they're going to have to do reservations even for passholders potentially if they want to avoid this type of scene.

My hunch is that this picture, especially until you get say a dozen or so resorts open, to help spread people out over numerous resorts, will have many GM's who don't currently have a reservation system in place from Day #1, rethinking that, and for those resorts that are planning on a reservation system, they may be rethinking how many reservations they'll be allowing for early season, limited lifts and terrain pods, skiing/riding.

Guess I'll find out how limited or plentiful EPIC's reservation system if for Mount Snow later this week when the window for the weather permitting opening day is in play...

 

[fbrissette]

What's your definition of "uncontrolled open"? MSS was passholders only when they opened this weekend and still had an issue, so this restriction alone may not be enough. Either resorts are going to have to open with multiple pods or they're going to have to do reservations even for passholders potentially if they want to avoid this type of scene.

Too early to draw conclusions. Saturday was a 4-hour duration day (12h00-16h00) under a perfect blue sky (one run, one lift).

 

[1dog]

Research data from many countries on excess death rate (scientific paper, not crap misreported by most news sources, from the left and right) indicate that COVID-19 related deaths are UNDER REPORTED.

One example of many: https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/article-abstract/2768086

[FONT="]'Between March 1, 2020, and April 25, 2020, a total of 505 059 deaths were reported in the US; 87 001 (95% CI, 86 578-87 423) were excess deaths, of which 56 246 (65%) were attributed to COVID-19'[/FONT]

Scroll to bottom of article to see CDC weekly deaths - lowest since March.


https://justthenews.com/politics-po...ing-sites-indicate-rise-deaths-cdc-data-shows

reasonable explanation of statistical issues with marked deaths too.

 

[fbrissette]

Scroll to bottom of article to see CDC weekly deaths - lowest since March.


https://justthenews.com/politics-po...ing-sites-indicate-rise-deaths-cdc-data-shows

reasonable explanation of statistical issues with marked deaths too.

You have to be careful in the evaluation of the last few weeks of data. As mentioned on the CDC site:

[FONT=&quot]*Data during this period are incomplete because of the lag in time between when the death occurred and when the death certificate is completed, submitted to NCHS and processed for reporting purposes. This delay can range from 1 week to 8 weeks or more, depending on the jurisdiction and cause of death.

[/FONT]
Interpreting this graph as showing deaths currently going to 0 (as Junior did on twitter) is wrong, and misinformed (and dumb). Wait till the end of November for reliable October stats.

 

[slatham]

What's your definition of "uncontrolled open"? MSS was passholders only when they opened this weekend and still had an issue, so this restriction alone may not be enough. Either resorts are going to have to open with multiple pods or they're going to have to do reservations even for passholders potentially if they want to avoid this type of scene.

MSS is an example of an uncontrolled opening: only game in town, one trail/lift, no reservations. Most of the pre-Thanksgiving openers in VT for instance are requiring reservations of some sort. And all plan on having much more than 1 trial and 1 lift.

 

[kingslug]

Wonder if Stowe will utilize the double more. If not then all you have is the quad and triple and Gondola. I wouldn't mind riding the double although its a hell of a long ride but it gets you up there.