Sundown - Friday POWDER afternoon / evening

[Greg]

Obviously weather-dependent, i.e. whether they're open on Friday. I would be willing to move the venue to (gasp) Mohawk if Sundown isn't open.

 

[2knees]

if sundown is open, i'll be there for the afternoon.

mohawk???

I aint no benedict arnold. :lol:

 

[Greg]

if sundown is open, i'll be there for the afternoon.

mohawk???

I aint no benedict arnold. :lol:

Ha! I know, but I just want to ski somewhere Friday and it has to be local. Fingers crossed for the mighty one, Ski Sundown.

 

[downhill04]

If they are open I can be there around 5:30. My fingers are crossed.

 

[Grassi21]

i can to the log in early from home and be available for an afternoon sess.

 

[gmcunni]

weather might keep me local instead of going to Hunter on Friday. if so, i'll put in a few hours at Sundown in the afternoon. probably a 1 - 5 session or something like that.

 

[Greg]

NWS is calling for 2-4" tonight and then a 70% chance of snow for Friday. Might have to be a full on afternoon to close session.

 

[severine]

You guys should go to Mohawk tonight. That's where it will be at. :lol:

That's what I'm doing... Powder day!!! :lol:

 

[gmcunni]

NWS is calling for 2-4" tonight and then a 70% chance of snow for Friday. Might have to be a full on afternoon to close session.

let it snow, let it snow, let it snow....

 

[Greg]

Some people on the Eastern weather forums are speculating about a foot for Friday. And then a bigger storm on Sunday. Say what?

 

[gmcunni]

Say what?

say - impromptu PTO day(s)!!

 

[bvibert]

I should be there Friday night.

 

[Greg]

I should be there Friday night.

If it's as good as I'm hoping, I'll probably ski into the night.

Area 51 on Sunday?

 

[bvibert]

If it's as good as I'm hoping, I'll probably ski into the night.

Area 51 on Sunday?

What's area 51?? :dunce:

 

[Greg]

Powder Bumps!!!

Friday is going to be nuts! Hoping for a foot. With those big ole gnarley bumps on Temptor right now, a foot of powder is going to be, like Crazy Eddie used to say, "IN-SANE!"

 

[Greg]

Since the mighty Sundown straddles both Litchfield and Hartford counties, I like to look at forecast from both the Albany and Taunton office. Check it:

Albany Discussion:

CURRENT GLOBAL RUNS OF THE GFS/ECMWF/GEM ALL SUGGEST THE BRITISH
COLUMBIA WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO DIVE SOUTHWARD AND ALLOW THE
CALIFORNIA WAVE TO BECOME ENTRENCHED IN THE SUBTROPICAL FEED ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN CONUS. WHILE TIMING DOES SEEM TO BE SLOWING DOWN A
BIT...THE TIME WINDOW APPEARS TO BE SHRINKING WITH FRIDAY APPEARING
TO BE THE MAIN DAY. CROSS SECTIONS REVEAL A RATHER STRONG SIGNAL OF
PRECIP BANDING WITH 2D FGEN FIELDS LINING UP WEST-EAST ACROSS THE
CENTER OF THE CWA. CLOSER EXAMINATION ALSO SUGGESTS THE BEST LIFT
OCCURS WITHIN THE OPTIMAL ICE GROWTH REGION AND HINTS OF -EPV.
SURE...A COUPLE DAYS AWAY AND THESE FEATURES WILL LIKELY SHIFT
SOMEWHAT BUT SOMETHING THAT WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED VERY CLOSELY.
WITH SPECIFIC HUMIDITIES IN THE 850-700MB LAYER NEAR 4 G/KG AND
COMBINING THOSE AFOREMENTIONED PARAMETERS COULD EASILY PUSH OVER A
FOOT OF SNOW FOR THE REGION. WE WILL HIGHLIGHT THIS EVENT IN THE
HWO AND ANTICIPATE A WINTER STORM WATCH MAY BE ISSUED LATER TODAY.

Taunton Discussion:

FRI...A NOREASTER DEVELOPS AS LOW PRES PASSES S OF NEW ENGLAND. HEAVY
SNOW DUE TO ISENTROPIC LIFT... GALE COLD CONVEYOR BELT MOISTURE INFLOW
BEING OVERRIDDEN BY 3SD SW FLOW WARM SECTOR FROM A 2SD PWAT AIRMASS.

QPF OF .7 TO 1.2 INCHES EXPECTED SNE...NORTH TO SOUTH WITH 7 TO 14
INCH SNOW POTENTIAL...DETAILS ON HEAVIEST TBD. THIS ALSO AGREES WITH
THE 06Z WWD. 03Z/17Z SREF HAS 10 PCT PROB A FOOT N OF RTE 2 AND 30
PCT PROB 8 INCHES IN 12 HOURS ENDING 03Z SATURDAY N OF RTE 2.

THE 00Z/17 GFS ENS PROBABILITY FOR 1 INCH OF QPF IN 24 HOURS IS 70
PCT IN CT RI SE MASS AND 30 PCT NORTHERN MASS.

BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW EXPECTED FRI AFTN/EVE...AT LEAST IN ERN
MASS.

POTENTIAL SERIOUS IMPACT MIDDAY AND FRI AFTN DRIVE TIME.


FRI NIGHT...LINGERED SNOWFALL ACCUMS WELL INTO THE NIGHT E MASS IN
PREFERRED CONVERGENCE OCEAN EFFECT REGIONS WITH NE FLOW. THIS ADDS TO
POTENTIAL TO LARGE ACCUMS BOSTON AREA. -10C DOWN TO NEAR 400O FT WITH
SST NEAR 6C ALLOWS FOR OCEAN EFFECT CONTRIBUTION.

Say what? :-o

 

[Greg]

The Taunton afternoon package is out:

***WINTER STORM WATCH FOR FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT FOR THE POTENTIAL
OF HEAVY SNOW***

FRIDAY...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL INTERACT WITH A LOW
PRESSURE MOVING EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY SNOW...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF OUR REGION.

THE MODEL TREND OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS IS COLDER AND FARTHER SOUTH.
THIS PROBABLY A RESULT OF THE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM FORCING THE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO TRACK FURTHER SOUTH. SEVERAL OF THE GFS
ENSEMBLES ARE ACTUALLY A BIT FURTHER SOUTH THAN THE 12Z OPERATIONAL
GFS MODEL SO WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS TREND. CONFIDENCE IN
HEAVY SNOW IS NOW HIGHEST SOUTH OF THE MA PIKE ESPECIALLY FOR THE
SOUTH COAST...BUT THE POTENTIAL FOR 6 INCHES OR MORE CONTINUES FOR
THE ENTIRE REGION...ESPECIALLY SINCE IT WILL BE QUITE COLD ACROSS
THE NORTHERN SECTIONS WHICH WILL HELP BOOST RATIOS.

IT NOW APPEARS THAT THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE FORM OF ALL
SNOW ACROSS THE REGION. THE SNOWGROWTH LOOKS VERY IMPRESSIVE ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REGION WITH OVER 20 MICROBARS PER-SECOND OF LIFT IN THE
IDEAL DENDRITIC GROWTH AREA FOR MUCH OF THE REGION.

TIMING IS STILL TRICKY THIS FAR OUT. AT THIS TIME...OUR BEST
ESTIMATE ON TIME IS THAT SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM WEST
TO EAST BETWEEN 8 AM AND NOON. THE SNOW WILL BECOME HEAVY WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR DURING THE
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF THE MA PIKE.

SO ALL IN ALL...WE WILL BE ISSUING A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR THE
POTENTIAL OF OVER 6 INCHES ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. THE HIGHEST
CONFIDENCE IS ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN SECTIONS BASED ON LATEST MODEL
GUIDANCE. THE POTENTIAL FOR A FOOT OF SNOW EXISTS WITH THE BEST
CHANCE FOR THIS NEAR THE SOUTH COAST. THE EVENING RUSH HOUR ON FRIDAY
LOOKS EXTREMELY MESSY AS IT PROBABLY WILL BE SNOWING QUITE HEAVILY
ACROSS THE REGION.

REMEMBER...WE ONLY NEED 50 PERCENT CONFIDENCE FOR A WATCH AND WERE
STILL 36 TO 48 HOURS AWAY FROM THE EVENT. THE ONE THING WE ARE
GOING TO HAVE TO WATCH ARE THE MODEL TRENDS. IF THE MODELS TREND EVEN
FARTHER SOUTH...SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LESS THAN ADVERTISED NORTH
OF ROUTE 2.

 

[Greg]

Albany update

Albany update:

...SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM TO POTENTIALLY IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA
WITH A MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL...

FRI...OVER RUNNING SNOWFALL COMMENCES RAPIDLY FROM S/SW TO N/NE
OVER THE FCST AREA BTWN 12Z-18Z AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT OVER PA AND
THE WAVE ACCELERATING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE OH VALLEY. THIS
STORM SYSTEM WILL BE A QUICK HITTER WITH TREMENDOUS QG UPWARD
VERTICAL MOTION TIED TO THE DIFFERENTIAL THICKNESS ADVECTION.

THE SRN REACHES OF OUR FCST AREA WILL BE NEAR THE LEFT FRONT
QUAD/CYCLONIC EXIT REGION OF THE H300 JET STREAK /100-120 KTS/.
THE CRITICAL THICKNESS AND THERMO PROFILES FROM THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF
INDICATE AN ALL SNOW EVENT. THIS IS A RELIEF FROM ALL THE MIXED
PCPN. THE AFTERNOON COMMUTE MAY BE PERILOUS WITH SNOW RATES OF 1-2
INCHES AN HOUR ESPECIALLY FROM I-90 CORRIDOR SOUTH AND EAST
/INCLUDING THE CAPITAL REGION/.

THE BUFKIT PROFILES DO SHOW THE BEST DENDRITIC SNOW REGION JUST
SOUTH OF KALB. NOW THE DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE TRENDED COLDER...AND
A LITTLE LEANER ON THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE QPF. MOST OF THE
GUIDANCE HAS A HALF AN INCH TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH OF QPF
OVER THE CAPITAL REGION...MOHAWK VALLEY...AND SRN VT...AND
BERKSHIRES. LESSER AMOUNTS OF AROUND A HALF AN INCH OR SLIGHTLY
LESS ARE FORECASTED FOR THE FAR NRN ZONES OF THE SRN ADIRONDACKS.
THE BULLS EYE OF 0.75-1+ INCHES WOULD BE SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL
REGION AND BERKSHIRES. THE LATEST 12Z MREF PLUME FOR KALB YIELDS
A MEAN OF ABOUT 0.75 INCHES.

A SLIGHT SHIFT NORTH AGAIN IN THE QPF...AND THE HEAVIEST QPF COULD BE
FROM ALBANY NORTH AND WEST /WE HAVE SEEN THAT MANY TIMES IN THESE
EVENTS !/. WE FEEL PRETTY CONFIDENT IN THE WATCH RIGHT NOW...AND
WE HAVE ISSUED IT. WE TENDED TO USE SNOW RATIOS OF 10-15:1 FOR THE
EVENT. PLEASE SEE THE WATCH STATEMENT FOR MORE DETAILS. WE
FORECASTED HIGHS A SHADE ABOVE THE COLDEST GFSMOS TEMPS.

TARGET: SKI SUNDOWN!!!!

 

[bvibert]

Dammit, now I'm gonna have to get into work wicked early so I can get to Sundown ASAP after work...

 

[Greg]

Roll call

Don't miss this one folks. This is going to be an epic afternoon/night of powder bumps. Truly radical to the 10th degree! Plan accordingly. Travel will be difficult.

I hope to arrive sometime early to mid afternoon and will ski until road conditions become safe again. which means probably until closing. :lol:

Roll call:
Greg (arrival 2-4 pm)