The 2/23 - 2/26 Storm Discussion Thread

[Glenn]

If I gotta take one for the AZ team, I'll step up to the plate! :lol:

The funny thing that it will likely be puking snow here in the Northeast, and I'll be looking at bluebird days in Utah with no freshies - oh well there are worse things than that!

I think you guys will have an "OK" time... Well, probably an understatement. You'll have a blast. :beer:

 

[WinnChill]

Think there will be enough to finally open up the woods at Ragged?

Not sure how much they need for that. But if there's a chance to open them up, this week will be it. They could be borderline with some mixing/rainy issues late Wed and perhaps again with the second wave..it'll be close but if they stay all snow, it'll be good.

 

[billski]

Been working hard on narrowing down forecast details (arbitrary NH forecast) for this week. Will likely need to tweak accumulations and play around with the possible mixing for southern areas Thurs/Fri.

Cheers!
WC

You are a brave man. I know a lot of meteorologists who are very nervous, even though all the indicators support them. The best forecast of all will be you telling where you'll be skiing!

 

[dmc]

I'm glad I don't live in China!

yeah Greg - whisky tango foxtrot?

How dare you voice your opinion..


jmho:
Some threads are easily ignored....
Weather threads are not...

 

[billski]

Think there will be enough to finally open up the woods at Ragged?

If you read WC's forecast, he's looking at considerable upslope for the higher el (predictably good) but the transition zone might include Ragged, further south with lower els.

 

[hammer]

If you read WC's forecast, he's looking at considerable upslope for the higher el (predictably good) but the transition zone might include Ragged, further south with lower els.

Yup...reads like a potential jackpot (at least by central NH standards). Now to see about schedules...

 

[billski]

Been working hard on narrowing down forecast details (arbitrary NH forecast) for this week. Will likely need to tweak accumulations and play around with the possible mixing for southern areas Thurs/Fri.

Cheers!
WC

Hey WC, do you have a sense where the snow-ice mix line might end up? Will it be an elevation play or a latitude play or both?

 

[WinnChill]

You are a brave man. I know a lot of meteorologists who are very nervous, even though all the indicators support them. The best forecast of all will be you telling where you'll be skiing!

Thanks Bill! Hope this ends up ok or else I'm a dead man. You're heading to VT (MRG), right? VT should be far enough away from the mixing but still in the zone for some good snow even if the 2nd storm shifts out to sea a bit more.

 

[WinnChill]

Just saw your last question...gimme a minute...

 

[billski]

Thanks Bill! Hope this ends up ok or else I'm a dead man. You're heading to VT (MRG), right? VT should be far enough away from the mixing but still in the zone for some good snow even if the 2nd storm shifts out to sea a bit more.

I won't decide on a destination until Tuesday. I've lived in New England long enough to know I need to be /want to be flexible. I'll follow the best snow.

 

[WinnChill]

Wed PM we could see some warmer air ooze in for S VT places...Snow/Ascutney, etc...seeing that it's already mild here, it wouldn't be too tough for that to happen--hopefully stalling just shy of Killington.

The second storm should pull in enough cold air aloft to nudge out the warmer stuff. There will be shoving match with stronger winds trying to pull it back in but should stay over S NH/S ME.

 

[billski]

Wed PM we could see some warmer air ooze in for S VT places...Snow/Ascutney, etc...seeing that it's already mild here, it wouldn't be too tough for that to happen--hopefully stalling just shy of Killington.

The second storm should pull in enough cold air aloft to nudge out the warmer stuff. There will be shoving match with stronger winds trying to pull it back in but should stay over S NH/S ME.

So skiing SVT on Wed could be sweet and deep, and avoid a possible Thursday crustfest? I wish Magic had a little more elevation. By Friday #2 things should be dry.
My takeaway (for the moment): SVT sweet on Wed and again on Friday+. NVT will be sweet throuout the period, but lower accums. Hell, what am I talking about. 8"+ anywhere in the east is terrific about now!

 

[WinnChill]

Yeah, NVT Wed should be safe from mixing, although it's only a slight threat of mixing for SVT.

Thurs night/early Fri, easterly winds will be so strong that it just may pull warmer temps aloft (summit level) in off the ocean all the way into VT...heck, we may even dry slot at that time...REAL tough call right now.

 

[WinnChill]

I need to add that possible mixing for Storm 2 to the forecasts.

 

[UVSHTSTRM]

Bust for this week

After seeing last nights weather on several different channels and then seeing the same reports from the same channels, it seems to be trending to more rain/mix for a larger area for both storms. I hope the mountains still make out good.

 

[Glenn]

I'll take a little crust if it's on 12-18" of snow. So it looks like this may impact my ride up to VT on Thursday evening....

 

[WinnChill]

Definately a concern. My band is playing out that night too so I'm expecting the crowd to be a little thin.

 

[billski]

This chart is very telling - it's precip, of any kind.

 

[Glenn]

Definately a concern. My band is playing out that night too so I'm expecting the crowd to be a little thin.

I suppose I shouldn't complain. If the ride up is a bit slow because of snow...that's going to cause some outstanding skiing...I probably shouldn't say much. :lol: As long as it doesn't take 4+ hours......:-o

 

[Greg]

Carry on billski... :roll: