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The Future of the Ski Industry

VTKilarney

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I had an interesting conversation with a person who runs a golf course (not in my area). The person said that the golf course is really worried. Memberships are way down from what they were 20 or 30 years ago, and the number of day-rate players has significantly declined.

The theory is this: A) Golf and tennis are dying sports; and
B) Golf is no longer consistent with people's lifestyle. It takes 4-5 hours to play 18 holes of golf on this course. The average family has two wage earners, and the children have sports and other activities (piano lessons, etc.) almost every day of the week. The parents need to run errands on the weekend such as grocery shopping. The time just isn't there.

I couldn't help but think about skiing when I heard this story. IMHO, skiing is just too expensive for the average family to dabble in. It's also a massive time commitment. There are fewer and fewer feeder hills to develop a new client base.

While there will always be families with the resources and interest to commit to skiing, are other families going to continue to ski as an occasional recreational activity? I've never felt that, for a beginner, skiing is that fun. It doesn't really start to become enjoyable until the intermediate level. If a family only makes a once-a-year ski trip, are their skills really developing enough to make skiing that enjoyable?

On the other hand, the economy is getting better and the ski industry has survived arguably the biggest economic challenge in the post-war era. That suggests that the industry is indeed durable. But this might be a product of consolidation rather than overall durability. And taxes and fuel costs aren't getting cheaper. And unlike golf, skiing cannot rely on the growing number of empty-nesters for its client base.

I don't think that there is doom and gloom, but on the other hand I am concerned that we may not have seen the last of ski area closures in our region.

If I had to guess, the biggest threat to ski areas could be the build out of indoor recreational facilities. Ten years ago I had never heard of a family with children who played baseball all year round. That is now quite common in southern New England. If these kids don't play in the winter leagues they get left behind. And the typical overly-competitive parent can't handle that thought. The same is true for soccer, hockey, etc. If more and more of these indoor centers are constructed, more and more families are going to have a local option for winter recreational activity. That can't be good for the ski areas.
 

Puck it

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I really don't play golf anymore. I have not played a round this year. MTB is better excercise and more exciting. And also less frustrating. The rise in blood pressure and hear rate in MTBing better for you than golf's.
 

mriceyman

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I really don't play golf anymore. I have not played a round this year. MTB is better excercise and more exciting. And also less frustrating. The rise in blood pressure and hear rate in MTBing better for you than golf's.

Yea but in golf drinking and smoking is encouraged lol


Sent from my iPhone using AlpineZone
 

jimk

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I don't think skiing's forecast is all that dim. Just go to place like WaWa on a busy winter weekend and it will restore your faith:) For many under age 25 I think skiing/snowboarding is pretty fun even on the first day unless they are a real klutz or catch a brutally cold day. The bargain tracking features of boards like AZ show that even buying day tickets a la carte can be reasonable if you have the least bit motivation to search for deals.
I'm like Puck It about golf. I've had to make choices with my leisure time and skiing won over golfing. I actually started playing golf as a ten year old with my Mom, a couple years before I ever went skiing and have played up to 25 rounds per year when I had a club membership in my early 20s, but recently I'm down to about one round every two years - sad. I might get into it again as an old timer, but would need close access to an affordable venue. There are a lot more golf courses than ski areas and I think there was a huge over-build about 5-15 years ago when everyone saw Michael Jordan and Tiger playing golf and thought every man woman and child in America was going to pick-up the sport?!? Although there are many similarities, I'm not sure I'd link the fates of golf and skiing too closely. I do agree that indoor activities (web surfing and all things electronic) are taking a bite out of the active outdoor sports customer base. Fortunately, in my lifetime I don’t think any technological, fiscal, or climate reasons will be negative enough to kill off skiing. After that if future generations choose to expend their leisure time doing something virtual instead of real that's up to them.
 

St. Bear

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I think golf and skiing are very similar, and while participation may decline in the overall population over time, they're not going to go away by any means.

Participation in everything is declining. Kids don't play baseball as much as they used to, afterschool activities (drama, debate, etc) are down, and the US is no longer half of the world's GDP. Things change, but that doesn't automatically mean it's a bad thing.
 

mister moose

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Things that have changed since I learned to ski:
Lawyers.
Insurance.
Energy costs.
Expectations. Used to be when it snowed, you ski. If it was a brown Christmas, you didn't ski. Now everyone demands a season from mid November to late April. That capital requirement to achieve that dependability puts the little guy (small feeder hill with small client base) right out of business.
Kid focused parents. My grandparents were of the "seen and not heard" approach to kids. Now the program sports drive the parents' schedule all year long. Schools are more rigid on days out of school, some schools fine parents for too many missed days.
Tier pricing. Used to be the price was the price. Now the walk up rate is the rape and pillage rate. If you're a beginner, you don't know where to get the deals, or that they even exist. Tier pricing discourages beginners.


However:
Skiing was never cheap. It was never a sport of the masses like driveway basketball. You had to work at it, and only relatively few did it. It wasn't easy to learn - but that didn't make it less fun. These things haven't changed. It isn't a growth industry. When I was a teen, and asked other people why they didn't ski, the usual answer was "No way, I don't want to break my leg." That perception hasn't changed either. Some feeder hills survive - Look at Bousquet's, Otis RIdge, Blandford.

What else has changed? At least from my point of view, the number of people who look at Otis Ridge (Ancient lifts, 400' vertical, limited snowmaking) and say "What a dump, I'm going to MT Snow, that's a real ski resort" and then gag on the price, and don't go anywhere. There is too much reliance on 'resort', and not enough on skiing. Too much reliance on others, and not enough on self reliance.

When was the last time learning to ski was on the front page of Ski magazine with a photo of a feeder hill?
 

Smellytele

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While skiing is more of a family outing, golf still seems to be a get away from the family thing. :) I get out for about 5 or 6 rounds a year. Usually a week day evening after work with the guys. I enjoy playing but once I had kids in sports time just isn't there to play much. I still ride my bike 2 or 3 times a week (used to be 5-6 days a week) and would much rather do that then play golf. Variety though is the spice of life!
 

4aprice

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Difference between golf and skiing is that skiing can be a family sport/recreation. Generally the "family" does not go out golfing. I gave up golf because of this and got into boating because we could do it as a family. The wife and I do play tennis but the kids have never taken to it, but tennis at the most (not talking US Open here) takes an hour and 1/2, not 1/2+ the day.

Alex

Lake Hopatcong, NJ
 

deadheadskier

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From my late teens through my late 20s, I played golf a fair bit. About once a week during the season. I enjoyed the game, but wasn't in love with it like skiing. I think I enjoyed the social aspect of it more than anything. Then I moved to a new place and didn't have any golfing buddies, so I basically stopped playing.

If my wife was into it, maybe I'd still be playing. She prefers tennis, so I picked that up and have grown to love it almost as much as skiing. I can get twice the work out in in an hour playing tennis than I could walking 18 holes of golf over 5 hours.

Tennis is a sport that I don't understand why the participation numbers are so low. It has about as cheap of an entry point as you can get. There are free to use public tennis courts everywhere. You can literally get shoes, a racket and some balls for under $50 if you wanted to. You can also spend $100+ on shoes and $200+ on a racket, but you don't have to. Maybe it's because it requires two people to participate. If my wife's tied up, I still head down to the courts and I'll work on my serve or there is also a hitting wall you can work on your game with. Eventually, I'll probably pick up a ball machine if I find a good deal.
 

Smellytele

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From my late teens through my late 20s, I played golf a fair bit. About once a week during the season. I enjoyed the game, but wasn't in love with it like skiing. I think I enjoyed the social aspect of it more than anything. Then I moved to a new place and didn't have any golfing buddies, so I basically stopped playing.

If my wife was into it, maybe I'd still be playing. She prefers tennis, so I picked that up and have grown to love it almost as much as skiing. I can get twice the work out in in an hour playing tennis than I could walking 18 holes of golf over 5 hours.

Tennis is a sport that I don't understand why the participation numbers are so low. It has about as cheap of an entry point as you can get. There are free to use public tennis courts everywhere. You can literally get shoes, a racket and some balls for under $50 if you wanted to. You can also spend $100+ on shoes and $200+ on a racket, but you don't have to. Maybe it's because it requires two people to participate. If my wife's tied up, I still head down to the courts and I'll work on my serve or there is also a hitting wall you can work on your game with. Eventually, I'll probably pick up a ball machine if I find a good deal.

Well as far as tennis is concerned you live in an area where there maybe courts - southeast NH. Most towns north and west of Manchester do not (My town does have courts, well the college does)
 

DoublePlanker

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I wonder about video games and tablets. It seems like kids these days are so focused on that. Time management seems like an issue for society in general.

I know I was a get in line before the lift starts ski until lifts close kid/teenager. Now, I like that HSQ can give me 10 runs in 2 hours so I can be back home to get other stuff done.

I think feeder hills are important. I have an 18 month boy who will be going to McIntyre this winter and maybe Crotched/Pats Peak. He will get those skis on! I hope he loves the sport as much as I do.
 

joshua segal

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I tend to agree with many postings. Bowling is certainly a dying sport. Can golf and skiing be that far behind?

VTKilarney suggests that the full day commitment of both skiing and golf is too much in our society today.

"mister moose" suggests: "Things that have changed since I learned to ski: Lawyers. Insurance. ..."

I don't know how long "mister moose" has been skiing, but lawyers and insurance have been a reality of the industry since Sunday vs. Stratton in 1978. The truth is liability insurance adds only in the neighborhood of 5% to the cost of a lift ticket.

One major change is the fact that ski areas have large financial investments (with debt) in the hills and economically, can't tolerate a "brown Christmas". Snowmaking and its high cost is the result. Estimates are that close to 40% of the price of the lift ticket is for snowmaking and grooming.

That's not what puts the little guy (small feeder hill with small client base) right out of business. It is the willingness of the owners of these places to keep them going. Nashoba Valley is an example of a small area that made a mountain out of the "mole-hill". I don't know if it is true, but I have heard: There is tremendous pressure to sell the ski area for real estate development - and that no one wants to buy it to run it when the present owner decides to call it quits. It will be interesting to see how Woodbury fairs following the death of its owner this year.

Now, for all my disagreement with what "mister moose" he is spot on with the following:
"Skiing was never cheap. It was never a sport of the masses like driveway basketball. You had to work at it, and only relatively few did it. It wasn't easy to learn - but that didn't make it less fun. These things haven't changed."

The problem is, 40 years ago skiing and skating (hockey/figure) were about it for the winter sports dollar. Now we have X-C, indoor tennis, climate-controlled skating places, indoor tennis, indoor swimming, etc. all competing for the winter sports dollar.
 

mister moose

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I don't know how long "mister moose" has been skiing, but lawyers and insurance have been a reality of the industry since Sunday vs. Stratton in 1978. The truth is liability insurance adds only in the neighborhood of 5% to the cost of a lift ticket.
5% is a lot in any business. And how much more to pay for everyone else's liability insurance, like the lift manufacturer, which is built into the purchase price? And to answer your question, I was skiing a while before 1978.

One major change is the fact that ski areas have large financial investments (with debt) in the hills and economically, can't tolerate a "brown Christmas". Snowmaking and its high cost is the result. Estimates are that close to 40% of the price of the lift ticket is for snowmaking and grooming.
40% Really? Sounds high to me. But anyway, you are illustrating my point. Cheaper lift tickets come from lower snowmaking costs, and the related shorter season and more dependence on natural snow. Town ski hills with rope tows existed for years with this compromise. Now most are gone.

That's not what puts the little guy (small feeder hill with small client base) right out of business. It is the willingness of the owners of these places to keep them going. Nashoba Valley is an example of a small area that made a mountain out of the "mole-hill". I don't know if it is true, but I have heard: There is tremendous pressure to sell the ski area for real estate development - and that no one wants to buy it to run it when the present owner decides to call it quits. It will be interesting to see how Woodbury fairs following the death of its owner this year.

This varies by location. Obviously if a ski hill gets built in the boonies for cheap, and the population swells to where the land is more valuable as an office park or housing development than a ski hill, owners may elect to sell at some point. That is different than their current profitability as a result of industry trends. Example: If Okemo was gone tomorrow, Ludlow would have zero demand for additional housing. The land would not get developed for houses.
 

joshua segal

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Continuing my banter with "mister moose":

We're talking about small feeder areas and you bring up Okemo? Westford was already well on its way to boom-town status when Nashoba Valley set up shop.

Mister moose said, "Cheaper lift tickets come from lower snowmaking costs, and the related shorter season and more dependence on natural snow."

That statement is just plain untrue. Taxes have to be paid based on 12 months a year. Depreciation is based on 12 months a year. The more those costs can be amortized over a longer season, the better it is for both the ski area and its employees. Killington management has told me they are profitable through the end of April. Most areas turn off the lifts when the customers (read: cash-flow or profitability) disappear, which is usually 2-weeks before the snow disappears.
 

VTKilarney

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No shit, Sherlock. That's why I didn't compare it to golf. I used the golf story as an introduction to my thoughts that were particular to skiing's challenges. But why let facts get in the way of an opportunity to be an asswipe, eh?

Oh, and by the way. You linked to an article that talks about golf having problem's because post-baby boomers are not adopting the sport in the same manner. You state that the two sports are not comparable. Well, when it comes to skiing, you are an idiot: http://usatoday30.usatoday.com/travel/destinations/ski/2010-04-10-ski-resorts-baby-boomers_N.htm
 

BenedictGomez

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I really don't play golf anymore. I have not played a round this year.

Me neither, and I love the game and used to golf a lot. Golf is not necessarily in crisis mode, but the trends are disturbing. This one I think is easy to over-think though, I just think it has to do with the fact it's increasingly expensive, with $75 greens fees becoming the norm. That and weekend demands like VTK noted.

the economy is getting better

If you have a very loose definition of "better" and set a low-bar, then this is true. But the reality is the economy is still in the crapper, (real) unemployment is still high, underemployment is still high, wages have stagnated for years, income is down a WHOPPING 8% in the last 6 years, job creation parsed out is low-wage and disproportionately part-time versus historical norms, the housing sector is slowing, student loan debt is at all-time highs, I could go on and on. The economy is poor.

When was the last time learning to ski was on the front page of Ski magazine with a photo of a feeder hill?

Last time? That's actually happened before?

Tennis is a sport that I don't understand why the participation numbers are so low. It has about as cheap of an entry point as you can get. There are free to use public tennis courts everywhere.

This was my main sport growing up. It's not nearly as cheap as you think it is. It's like playing the violin, you need lessons if you reasonably expect any level of success, and lessons arent cheap. You also need a minimum of 2 racquets (3 really), and depending on where you live, free courts can be clogged. You'll burn through several pairs of tennis sneakers per year if you really want to nit-pick. Also, winter. Winter comes and you're paying hourly court rates = not cheap.
 

deadheadskier

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I've played three times a week this summer on the same shoes, that's not a problem for me. I took a few lessons as a kid, but am largely self taught. My wife is 100% self taught and she's gotten pretty good. Granted it's taken her 6 years to get there. I've never felt the need for more than the one $40 Prince racket I bought at Olympia sports. The only recurring cost for me are balls. We've gone through about 10 cans this summer.

Yet, we have a blast when we play. Winter comes I ski unless I'm visiting my folks in Florida. It is a summer activity for me, just like golf is for most people.

It's really a dirt cheap activity for the average person.
 

AdironRider

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I think his point DH was are you rocking 10 year old skis, using the same boots for a similar period of time, etc? Sure you can do it, but like skiing, if you decide you really like the sport you are probably spending more money than you say.
 
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