The Official 12/13 Storm Discussion Thread

[Greg]

Josh Fox is calling for a significant storm this Thursday for the MRV and Green Mountains:

http://madriverglenweather.blogspot.com/

The NWS is calling for a 70% chance of snow Thursday from Hunter up through Killington.

Could we be looking at a powder day for [thread="17690"]Hunter 12/14[/thread]?

powderfreak?

Please, oh please!

 

[Grassi21]

Josh Fox is calling for a significant storm this Thursday for the MRV and Green Mountains:

http://madriverglenweather.blogspot.com/

The NWS is calling for a 70% chance of snow Thursday from Hunter up through Killington.

Could we be looking at a powder day for [thread="17690"]Hunter 12/14[/thread]?

powderfreak?

Please, oh please!

I just received a nice paycheck for working our local lacrosse clinic. I'm more than half way to those fatter boards I have been drooling over. There might be an impulse buy going down this afternoon after the P word was dropped.

 

[bvibert]

Josh Fox is calling for a significant storm this Thursday for the MRV and Green Mountains:

http://madriverglenweather.blogspot.com/

The NWS is calling for a 70% chance of snow Thursday from Hunter up through Killington.

Could we be looking at a powder day for [thread="17690"]Hunter 12/14[/thread]?

powderfreak?

Please, oh please!

Dude, don't be teasing me like that!



Please please please let it be true!!!!

 

[Greg]

NWS Discussion for Albany:

THU/THU NIGHT...ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE RETREATS SLOWLY DOWNSTREAM OVER
NRN NEW ENGLAND AND NOVA SCOTIA...WHILE LOW PRESSURE QUICKLY
APPROACHES FROM THE OH VALLEY. THIS PRIMARY LOWS QUICKLY WEAKENS
WITH POTENTIAL SECONDARY DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE NJ COAST. THE LATEST
TRENDS ARE COLDER WITH PERHAPS THE PREDOMINATE PTYPE BEING SNOW FROM
THE CAPITAL REGION AND BERKSHIRES NORTH AND WEST. THE CRITICAL
PARTIAL THICKNESSES FROM THE GFS SUPPORT A PREDOMINANT SNOW/SLEET
PTYPE FOR THE ENTIRE FCST AREA. THE 00Z MREF PLUME FOR KALB HAS THE
MAJORITY OF THE MEMBER WITH SNOW. LOW PRESSURE MOVES NE ALONG THE
STATIONARY FRONT TO SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND BY 00Z FRI. THE LATEST
MREF MEAN/ECMWF SUPPORT THIS TRACK. THE ECMWF SHOWS THE 0C ISOTHERM
AT 850 MB BARELY GETTING NORTH OF KNYC. THE LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC
ZONE LOOKS PRETTY IMPRESSIVE AT THIS POINT IN THE 18Z THU TO 06Z FRI
TIME FRAME. OVERRUNNING PCPN SHOULD BREAK OUT BY THE LATE
MORNING/EARLY PM. WE WENT WITH LIKELY POPS IN THE AFTERNOON. IF
THE LOW LEVEL WEDGE OF SUB FREEZING AIR BELOW 800 MB DOESN/T
ERODE...SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW MAY POSSIBLY OCCUR...ESPECIALLY FROM
ALBANY NORTH AND WEST. IF SLEET OCCURS...THEN THE ACCUMULATION MAY
BE CUT DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY. THE AMOUNT OF QPF WILL PLAY A BIG ROLE
WITH THIS SYSTEM. THE ECMWF HAS A THIRD OF INCH TO THE NORTH WITH
UP TO AN INCH FOR THE SRN EXTREME. THE GFS HAS ROUGHLY A HALF AN
INCH TO AN INCH FOR THE SYSTEM. THE TRENDS WILL BE CLOSELY
MONITORED FOR THE PTYPE AND TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. WE WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THIS SYSTEM IN THE HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.

 

[billski]

if powderfreak agrees, I'm outta here....

To heck with the weather models...More offerings to Ullr coming up.

 

[billski]

Good nooz!

Good news! powderfreak buys into it. Not a biggie, but a worthy diversion from the office.

"There will be three episodes of precipitation this week"..."Our final storm system of the week will spread clouds across the area on Thursday morning and early afternoon. Snow will overspread most of New England and upstate New York by the evening rush hour on Thursday. Snow could come down heavily at times across northern and central New England and leave 4-8” of new snow by Friday morning."

http://www.thebostonchannel.com/skireports/14499207/detail.html


who can feed my dog for a few dayz??

 

[GrilledSteezeSandwich]

It's raining here in PA and I'm going skiing in an hour..

 

[Greg]

It's raining here in PA and I'm going skiing in an hour..

And this relates to a 12/13 event discussion.......how? :blink:

 

[koreshot]

And this relates to a 12/13 event discussion.......how? :blink:

I'll tell you how! By the time the 12/13 storm hits, GSS will have logged 7 consecutive days at Blue Mountain with 160,000 vertical feet, 224 runs, 127 of which were non stop top to bottom, 20 of which were while his stomach was grumbling, and 2 on which he farted while making a left turn.

 

[Euler]

update from NWS

[NWS Albany Office update from 4:06 PM Monday 12/10

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CENTER MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION. MEANWHILE THE 500 HPA TROF MOVES FROM THE ROCKIES TO THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...WHERE A LOW PRESSURE CENTER FORMS ALONG THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. IT SHOOTS NORTH AND MERGES WITH A LOW MOVING
ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA WHILE A SECOND LOW BEGINS TO DEVELOP IN
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. THE HIGH RESOLUTION ECMWF IS A BIT
FASTER THAN THE GFS AND HAS THE 500 TROF AND RIDGE FARTHER EAST
AND THE LOW SOUTH OF CAPE COD BY THURSDAY EVENING. NCEP APPEARS
TO BE PRETTY MUCH FOLLOWING THE GFS. THE SURFACE LOW FROM THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES MOVES TO NEAR CAPE COD AND DEEPENS BY 06Z FRIDAY
AND CONTINUES TO DEEPEN AS IT MOVES TO THE MARITIMES BY 12Z FRIDAY
WITH THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION OVER THE AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. THE LATEST GFS RUN PUTS THE REGION IN THE MIDDLE OF
THE ICE/SNOW TRANSITION ZONE. THE TIME-SERIES PROFILE FOR THE
MID HUDSON REGION LOOKS QUITE UGLY WITH A SLEET/FREEZING RAIN
SIGNATURE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. FARTHER NORTH...LOOKS TO BE ALL
SNOW...AND POTENTIALLY A LOT OF IT IN SOME AREAS SUCH AS THE
CATSKILLS. THE NAM WAS CONSIDERABLY COLDER AT 850 HPA...
SUGGESTING MORE WIDESPREAD SNOW. CURRENTLY WE HAVE GONE FOR
SNOW NORTH WITH FREEZING RAIN MOVING INTO OUR SOUTHERN ZONES.
AS THE LOW PULLS OUT...SNOW TAPERS OFF WITH LAKE EFFECT SETTING
IN FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...SHIFTING SOUTH/WEST AS WINDS
VEER TO A MORE NORTHERLY DIRECTION. THE QUESTION COMES REGARDING
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS A LOW MOVES UP OFF THE EAST COAST. WE
HAVE GONE WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE IN OUR SOUTHERN ZONES SUNDAY NIGHT
AND A CHANCE MONDAY...WITH DRY WEATHER MONDAY NIGHT...AS A SLIGHT
MOVE TO THE WEST IN THE TRACK OF THE STORM COULD HIT US WITH A
SIGNIFICANT SNOW PARTICULARLY IN OUR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN ZONES

Now showing a chance of more snow Sunday night!!!

 

[billski]

I'll tell you how! By the time the 12/13 storm hits, GSS will have logged 7 consecutive days at Blue Mountain with 160,000 vertical feet, 224 runs, 127 of which were non stop top to bottom, 20 of which were while his stomach was grumbling, and 2 on which he farted while making a left turn.

no confined spaces, including gondolas or trams, please!

 

[billski]

ooh, ooh, We're not in Kansas anymore, are we Toto? Doesn't even feel like the NEast! Looks like work, family, church and all other obligations will be shunted. Tank up and go now. Ask forgiveness later.

 

[reefer]

Oh boy! I'm going so you know it's blizzard time..................the snow just follows me ( or proceeds me ), however it goes..................Powder Day number three coming up. My best December ever and still going!

 

[powderfreak]

We lost this one up north...the models are just catching on to the cold air that's in place now and I'm thinking Catskills NE through the Berkshires, southern VT, and southern NH will do well with this one. Still uncertain about precipitation amounts as the models look heavy for this type of set up. I'm still going with 8" about the max (just shifted it from N/C VT to the ALB suburbs, ha) as this will be a quick-hitter but with some good snowfall rates...and some areas may still have a problem with sleet which would reduce accums.

Overall, the situation just got much better looking from Hunter to Mount Snow...

-Scott

 

[reefer]

We lost this one up north...the models are just catching on to the cold air that's in place now and I'm thinking Catskills NE through the Berkshires, southern VT, and southern NH will do well with this one. Still uncertain about precipitation amounts as the models look heavy for this type of set up. I'm still going with 8" about the max (just shifted it from N/C VT to the ALB suburbs, ha) as this will be a quick-hitter but with some good snowfall rates...and some areas may still have a problem with sleet which would reduce accums.

Overall, the situation just got much better looking from Hunter to Mount Snow...

-Scott

Who else loves powderfreak! I might as well just take the rest of the month off from work!

 

[Greg]

Who else loves powderfreak! I might as well just take the rest of the month off from work!

Read his last sentence. Twice.

 

[mtl1076]

Overall, the situation just got much better looking from Hunter to Mount Snow...

-Scott

How about Magic?

 

[wa-loaf]

How about Magic?

That's near Mt Snow isn't it? I'd assume its covered.

 

[billski]

How about Magic?

yup, covered. same geo.

 

[billski]

Read his last sentence. Twice.

OK, I'm dense. Say what?