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Trail Count Predictions for Tues/Wed

bdfreetuna

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keep the faith
bdfreetuna, where did you get those amounts from?

IMHO this will be a good starting base storm that will literally lay the foundation for the next storm of this or great magnitude to open terrain.

http://www.mountain-forecast.com

Also been keeping an eye on GFS. I find Mountain-forecast.com to be a better (and also more optimistic) predictor of actual snowfall amounts at various mountains. The reason it's more optimistic is because it takes elevation into account, you can look at base and top elevations for various mountains and compare weather. Definitely my go-to for short term ski planning.

Sugarloaf is looking at 14-15" and they've had about 6" in the last few days as well.

We should have a clipper or two come through this weekend and maybe deliver a few inches to certain mountains as well.
 
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Expect 4-6 inches and lots of sleet. Nowhere in VT should even reach half of 14 inches.

GFS also does not factor in sleet. No way we stay all snow with this set up. Slice totals in half.
 

ALLSKIING

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I was surprised to read this morning that Killington has the guns going on lower Bittersweet & middle Superstar. Two trails that haven't been open yet this season. They did make snow on middle Supe earlier this season but it never opened. This of course is in addition to guns going all over the mountain resurfacing open terrain & terrain that had been open but closed.

I didn't see bittersweet but superstar had no guns going at any time of they day.
 

〽❄❅

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http://www.onthesnow.com/northern-america/snow-forecast.html

They remain optimistic. Stratton and Mt Snow seem to be in a good spot.

Mt Snow:

http://www.onthesnow.com/vermont/mount-snow/longterm-weather.html?rptType=snow

That's a foot. Fingers crossed!
I have more faith in weather dot com's ever changing precipitation forecast then anything I've ever seen from onthesnow, and that's not saying much.

I'd hedge my bet on Sunday River this go around. ...Dang I need a on the highway self driving car!
 

from_the_NEK

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I wouldn't get your hopes down.

attachment.php

The "Weather" Channel has to keep hyping "Goliath" somehow.
 

bdfreetuna

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Not sure where all the pessimistic forecasts/attitudes are coming from but I'm checking and posting multiple sources saying this is gonna be good. Feel free to stay home. I'll be chasing the snow.
 

drjeff

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http://www.onthesnow.com/northern-america/snow-forecast.html

They remain optimistic. Stratton and Mt Snow seem to be in a good spot.

Mt Snow:

http://www.onthesnow.com/vermont/mount-snow/longterm-weather.html?rptType=snow

That's a foot. Fingers crossed!

I would love for their Mount Snow forecast to be correct - a couple of mountain ops folks I spoke with today here at Mount Snow are thinking about 6-9", even up top, before warm air aloft changes it over to sleet - they're REALLY hoping it won't go all the way over to freezing rain before the precip ends!! Don't need to be de-icing lifts for what were building, but not crazy crowds here today!!

Cold air is locked in though, currently 21 degrees on my back deck thermometer, which is elevation wise about 300 ft above the baselodge
 

bdfreetuna

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I'll be going to Killington Wednesday unless the storm is even better than the maps I've shown are saying and there is in fact an across-the-board terrain expansion at several or more mountains. Killington I would be surprised if they aren't up to 30 by Wednesday and 40 after the weekend.

Would love to go to Wildcat but it's a bit much for a solo day trip.
 

steamboat1

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I'll be going to Killington Wednesday unless the storm is even better than the maps I've shown are saying and there is in fact an across-the-board terrain expansion at several or more mountains. Killington I would be surprised if they aren't up to 30 by Wednesday and 40 after the weekend.

I like your optimism but I think it's very unlikely K's trail count will be that high by Wed. Their highest trail count so far this season was 27 & it's unlikely you'll see upper Chute or Powerline which were open back online by then. Even upper Superstar which was also open is questionable but more likely. There's not enough time between now & then to get more open especially since they're concentrating on resurfacing now not expanding. Trails that haven't seen snowmaking this year are brown & wet. It'll take longer than 48 hrs. to get them open.
 

Smellytele

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I wouldn't get your hopes down.

attachment.php

wildcat at 3150'
Tonight
Snow likely, mainly after 4am. Increasing clouds, with a low around 7. Wind chill values as low as -6. North wind 5 to 10 mph becoming south after midnight. Chance of precipitation is 60%. Total nighttime snow accumulation of around an inch possible.

Tuesday
Snow and sleet before noon, then snow and freezing rain between noon and 2pm, then snow after 2pm. High near 26. Wind chill values as low as -7. Southeast wind around 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Little or no ice accumulation expected. New snow and sleet accumulation of 4 to 8 inches possible.

Tuesday Night
Snow before 9pm, then freezing drizzle. Low around 18. Southeast wind 5 to 10 mph becoming west after midnight. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New ice accumulation of less than a 0.1 of an inch possible. New snow accumulation of 1 to 2 inches possible.

Not really adding up to 18-24"
 

wtcobb

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For Jackson, from Wunderground:

Monday 12/28 24 | 13 °F
100 % Precip. / < 1 in

Snow developing overnight. Lows overnight in the low teens.

Monday Night 100 % Precip. / 5-8 in

Cloudy. Snow likely late. Low 13F. Winds ESE at 5 to 10 mph. Chance of snow 100%. Snow accumulating 5 to 8 inches.

Tuesday 12/29 23 | 23 °F
100 % Precip. / 8-12 in

Cloudy with snow. High 23F. Winds E at 5 to 10 mph. Chance of snow 100%. Snow accumulating 8 to 12 inches.

Tuesday Night 90 % Precip. / < 1 in

Mainly cloudy with snow showers around before midnight. Some sleet may mix in. Low 23F. Winds light and variable. Chance of snow 90%. Snow accumulations less than one inch.

Wednesday 12/30 36 | 29 °F
20 % Precip. / 0 in

Cloudy. High 36F. Winds light and variable.

Wednesday Night 50 % Precip. / ~ 1 in

A wintry mix early will transition to some snow showers late. Low 29F. Winds light and variable. Chance of precip 50%. Snow and ice accumulations around one inch.
 
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