VAIL SUCKS

[Edd]

You guys are hilarious, did you read this chart? Theirs Seasonality to it, unless vail had financial problems in 2016 look at 2016 10-31, eight times the cash now then back then, I think this season is tough, will vail lose money, yes, will alterra loose money, yes along with every other major ski area, that makes money on food beverage, lodging rentals ski lessons etc, vail already preannounced the quarter ending in December. Will be ugly, but it was ugly for everyone. Vail has a line of credit if they need it, vail is not crashing, one more year of COVID sure, but everybody is in the same boat

I happen to know Gunstock isn’t losing money. They’re in pretty good shape financially. They had to drastically cut summer activities and reset the table on things. F & B is way down of course. Makes me wonder if Cannon and some other individual players are in good shape.

 

[ss20]

You guys are hilarious, did you read this chart? Theirs Seasonality to it, unless vail had financial problems in 2016 look at 2016 10-31, eight times the cash now then back then, I think this season is tough, will vail lose money, yes, will alterra loose money, yes along with every other major ski area, that makes money on food beverage, lodging rentals ski lessons etc, vail already preannounced the quarter ending in December. Will be ugly, but it was ugly for everyone. Vail has a line of credit if they need it, vail is not crashing, one more year of COVID sure, but everybody is in the same boat

There is seasonality to it, yes. But still...Q3 free cash was half of what it was the Q3 of the previous year. And with no acquisitions and no improvements made over the off season.

Their debt is stupid high as well. I don't see how any logical person could argue Vail is in a solid financial shape. I am not at all in-tune with the full situation but @BenedictGomez is and he's got a whole narrative on what will happen to VR and why they're really shaky. But essentially, they've got massive debt due to all their purchases but it's ok because they post massive growth numbers y-o-y. But now the debt bubble is nearing its popping point and there's no more big, profitable ski resorts left to purchase (that's an exaggeration, don't take that completely literally). And natural, organic growth in this industry is miniscule. So now they've got too much debt and their growth is going to be flat essentially. Bubble going pop...pop...pop...

 

[Cobbold]

There is seasonality to it, yes. But still...Q3 free cash was half of what it was the Q3 of the previous year. And with no acquisitions and no improvements made over the off season.

Their debt is stupid high as well. I don't see how any logical person could argue Vail is in a solid financial shape. I am not at all in-tune with the full situation but @BenedictGomez is and he's got a whole narrative on what will happen to VR and why they're really shaky. But essentially, they've got massive debt due to all their purchases but it's ok because they post massive growth numbers y-o-y. But now the debt bubble is nearing its popping point and there's no more big, profitable ski resorts left to purchase (that's an exaggeration, don't take that completely literally). And natural, organic growth in this industry is miniscule. So now they've got too much debt and their growth is going to be flat essentially. Bubble going pop...pop...pop...

 

[Cobbold]

Well it’s not popping today, Mtn up 11:50 bucks today, just a hair under 300, you should put your check book where your mouth is and sell vail short. You do realize vail sold 1.2 million epic passes last year and this year 1.4 million, but yes vail is crashing and burning

 

[Smellytele]

I happen to know Gunstock isn’t losing money. They’re in pretty good shape financially. They had to drastically cut summer activities and reset the table on things. F & B is way down of course. Makes me wonder if Cannon and some other individual players are in good shape.

Cannon contracts out their F&B so it may not hurt as badly. Not sure if that contract is based on intake or just a flat fee. Seeing it is the state it probably is a flat fee.

 

[ss20]

Well it’s not popping today, Mtn up 11:50 bucks today, just a hair under 300, you should put your check book where your mouth is and sell vail short. You do realize vail sold 1.2 million epic passes last year and this year 1.4 million, but yes vail is crashing and burning

What is happening on Wall Street is not indicative of long-term financial health and you know that.

Looking back, yes, MTN would've been a really nice short-sell.

 

[AdironRider]

Benedict is a coding jockey from Albany, he isn't any more in tune to ski area financials than you are. He just has a louder opinion.

Ski areas make much more money than they would ever admit but sure do like the free pass they get on a lot of things due to public perception of it being a tough road to hoe.

 

[eatskisleep]

I’m short shares right now. Hit all
Time high today. Season pass sales are up? Yeah they acquired 17 new mountains from Peaks (at a time when many people already had last season’s pass purchased)... so yeah, I’d hope they would be up! then they scared people into getting season passes with all the “must reserve your day BS”. Vail is a shit company, they treat their employees like crap, and they take good mountains and suck the soul out of them.

 

[jimmywilson69]

hearing a Rumor that the lifties are striking at Roundtop on Sunday at 11 AM.

Citing that they aren't being paid Vail's minimum wage of $10/hr, short staffed, safety issues (curious about this one for sure) and demanding back pay for the additional $2/hr.

Apparently management (again not sure what level) is in support and Management has had no communication with Corporate.

Demanding a resolution by end of this week or a strike on Sunday at 11 AM.

 

[deadheadskier]

$8 an hour for a lifty? If that's the case, I'd expect them to strike as well.

 

[PAabe]

Holy cow nobody around here pays $8/hr anymore, not even walmart or mcdonalds. Most entry jobs I see starting at $11-15, and Vail wonders why they have staffing problems?

 

[Ski2LiveLive2Ski]

Odd timing for a strike. Would have had a lot more impact before last weekend then now that the season is in winding down mode. No way they are going to get back pay out of Vail and best scenario is the each take home an extra $100 or so over the next few weeks.

As it is unlikely these guys have a union contract to protect them, I expect it will lead to a lot of lay offs, shifting folks in management and other roles to manning a smaller set of lifts for the rest of the season (can't really hire many people for a 6 week job especially with current unemployment compensation levels), and an earlier end to the season. Gonna hurt pass holders more than anything else.

hearing a Rumor that the lifties are striking at Roundtop on Sunday at 11 AM.

Citing that they aren't being paid Vail's minimum wage of $10/hr, short staffed, safety issues (curious about this one for sure) and demanding back pay for the additional $2/hr.

Apparently management (again not sure what level) is in support and Management has had no communication with Corporate.

Demanding a resolution by end of this week or a strike on Sunday at 11 AM.

 

[PAabe]

From what I have heard Roundtop needs every chair/J-bar running uphill they can get, as do other vail areas, with how busy all these places have been. Vail is in a tight spot for sure haha

 

[Ski2LiveLive2Ski]

From what I have heard Roundtop needs every chair/J-bar running uphill they can get, as do other vail areas, with how busy all these places have been. Vail is in a tight spot for sure haha

When I was at RT 2.5 weeks ago on a Sat the lines looked bad at the lift closest to the lodge but were only about 5 min on the 2 lifts that served their more legit terrain. They only have 3 non bunny hill lifts - so they need 6 people to staff them.

If I am Vail Management and a bunch of non-union seasonal employees at a podunk feeder hill threaten a walk out for the last few weeks of the season, with salaried management apparently supporting them per above post, I tell 4-6 salaried guys to get out there and run 2-3 lifts on the remaining weekends if they want to keep their salaried positions. And if that doesn't work and I have to fire those guys, I close the mountain early for the season - knowing that
(A) I am going to lose money staying open that month anyway largely for pass holders with minimum food / bev / lessons this season.
(B) My pass holders can go to Liberty or Whitetail that month
(C) My DC/Baltimore/Harrisburg passholders are going to still buy passes next year because I own every ski area that is close enough to regularly day trip to.

I wish them all the best as I am more supportive of labor than management. But putting on my "Rob Katz" hat I have to laugh at the negotiating leverage they bring to the table.

 

[PAabe]

Fair points. Best of luck to Roundtop lifties and management. The place has always had the friendliest employees and best vibe around but I doubt Vail cares. At any rate though, until they start paying $12/hr or otherwise offer better benefits/employment environment they are going to have staffing issues going forward into next year, especially if they fire people now.

 

[Ski2LiveLive2Ski]

Fair points. Best of luck to Roundtop lifties and management. The place has always had the friendliest employees and best vibe around but I doubt Vail cares.

I was truly struck by the happy friends and family vibe among the skiers there. Everybody seemed to know one another and enjoy chatting with their friends in the lift lines as much as skiing. A place everybody knows your name - like the skiing version of Cheers.

 

[PAabe]

I always enjoy skiing there despite the lack of vertical. Nice crowds, employees, trail design, snow, lodge, and vibe. It is just a nice place to be. Hopefully it can avoid getting Vail'ed too hard.

 

[abc]

passholders are going to still buy passes next year because I own every ski area that is close enough to regularly day trip to.

The power of monopoly!

 

[PAabe]

The power of monopoly!

Yikes for sure, I had been thinking about getting a season pass for somewhere next year (either buying or working there) and Roundtop/Epic would make the most sense given location, other options being Bear Creek (tiny and crowded) or Indy Pass (significantly longer drives to Blue Knob/Shawnee/Canaan Valley/Massanutten/Greek Peak). However given all of the Vail shenanigans I will be strongly considering Indy Pass+$26 night skiing tickets at Bear creek, plus there really are a lot of great places on Indy if one is down for the drive - I gotta hit up Magic and Cannon after seeing all the hype for them here.

FWIW (completely anecdotally here) most people buying day tickets in Lancaster like me have been slowly abandoning Roundtop as prices have been going up since Snow Time sold, especially now that 4-hour tickets and cheap night skiing are things of the past there. It just makes more sense to go to Bear Creek/Blue Mountain or suck it up and drive to Elk/Montage/Blue Knob given the much cheaper rates of lift tickets at all of those places. I speak for Lancaster here and not points west/south.

I would say that Vail better be careful about not losing the Washington crowd too because Indy Pass or the new and improved Timberline definitely would appear to be giving them a run for the money in that market.

 

[Ski2LiveLive2Ski]

Yikes for sure, I had been thinking about getting a season pass for somewhere next year (either buying or working there) and Roundtop/Epic would make the most sense given location, other options being Bear Creek (tiny and crowded) or Indy Pass (significantly longer drives to Blue Knob/Shawnee/Canaan Valley/Massanutten/Greek Peak). However given all of the Vail shenanigans I will be strongly considering Indy Pass+$26 night skiing tickets at Bear creek, plus there really are a lot of great places on Indy if one is down for the drive.

FWIW (completely anecdotally here) most people buying day tickets in Lancaster like me have been slowly abandoning Roundtop as prices have been going up since Snow Time sold, especially now that 4-hour tickets and cheap night skiing are things of the past there. It just makes more sense to go to Bear Creek/Blue Mountain or suck it up and drive to Elk/Montage/Blue Knob given the much cheaper rates of lift tickets at all of those places. I speak for Lancaster here and not points west/south.

I would give consideration to Blue Mountain. In recent years their pass prices have been low (430 if bought in Feb 2020) and included the remainder of the prior season. Not much further than Bear Creek, and twice the vertical. Gets crazy crowded on weekends but passholders get their own line which makes the wait way more manageable. I had a pass there for 2 years ago when they were offering a crazy $99 deal for 6th graders, so we got 3 passes for under $600.

With that $99 deal gone for us though Epic is a no brainer as it gives access to so many better places and just skiing one place most of the winter got a bit old hat.