VAIL SUCKS

[Whitey]

I also don't know how we can make assumptions about lift lines next year based on this year. This year we have a ton of companies still operating under total WFH status... especially in NY and Boston. Not to mention uphill capacity being limited by 50% or more depending upon the type of lift.

I think SnowRock has it right here. I am surprised that on this forum of experienced skiers there isn't more recognition of the impact of CV19 lift loading restrictions had on lift lines this year. Most areas were lucky if they were hitting 50% capacity on their lifts even on weekends. In theory (and I believe) - next season we are basically going to be doubling the lift capacity (assuming they can fill chairs to 100% when needed). That will make a huge difference. And note that skiers visits, while down this year, weren't down by 50%. I believe Vail is reporting an 11% decrease YOY. So while the pass pricing will drive skier visits up next year, it's not like it's going to cause them to double. Net/net should result in shorter lift lines next year, not longer.

 

[jimmywilson69]

MTN down 7% right now. I guess Wall Street isn't exactly enamored with this approach

 

[thetrailboss]

MTN down 7% right now. I guess Wall Street isn't exactly enamored with this approach

That's probably more of a reaction to their recent financials and the decrease in revenue the last quarter.

 

[cdskier]

That's probably more of a reaction to their recent financials and the decrease in revenue the last quarter.

I don't think so. Their stock shot up 11% after the recent earnings announcement. While they may have seen a decrease in revenue last quarter, their financials still exceeded analyst expectations. The 7% drop today is a direct reaction to the new pass pricing announcement.

 

[dblskifanatic]

So have we ever had the happy medium then? And who's medium are we judging it by? For some, these multi-pass products work out well. For others they want their home mountain ski-on on Saturdays but a price they deem reasonable. Its hard.

I am a weekend warrior mostly (except for this year) so believe me, don't love the idea of adding more crowds to my experience, but there are lots of options now. With the Epic prices there are combinations where you could throw in an Indy pass or an IKON pass, or the MC and be close or even below where you were for some single mountain passes, no?

Copied from another thread on the same subject!

Question how many people will now go Epic instead of Ikon or better yet how many will go with both? For about $1300 (Ikon bas + Epic Local and even less if Veteran) The list of resorts you can ski is absolutely nuts!

Killington, Pico, Stratton, Loon, Sunday River, Sugarloaf, Sugar Bush, Windham - Ikon
Stowe, Mount Snow, Okemo, Sunapee, Crotched, Wildcat, Attitash, Hunter - Epic

Head out West is it is dreamy!

 

[thetrailboss]

I don't think so. Their stock shot up 11% after the recent earnings announcement. While they may have seen a decrease in revenue last quarter, their financials still exceeded analyst expectations. The 7% drop today is a direct reaction to the new pass pricing announcement.

Interesting. Sounds like you follow it pretty closely. Are you an investor?

I guess it also confirms my thoughts yesterday about things not being as good for Vail. If your product is so awesome, why discount it?

 

[dblskifanatic]

I think SnowRock has it right here. I am surprised that on this forum of experienced skiers there isn't more recognition of the impact of CV19 lift loading restrictions had on lift lines this year. Most areas were lucky if they were hitting 50% capacity on their lifts even on weekends. In theory (and I believe) - next season we are basically going to be doubling the lift capacity (assuming they can fill chairs to 100% when needed). That will make a huge difference. And note that skiers visits, while down this year, weren't down by 50%. I believe Vail is reporting an 11% decrease YOY. So while the pass pricing while drive skier visits up next year, it's not like it's going to cause them to double. Net/net should result in shorter lift lines next year, not longer.

Logic makes sense for sure!

 

[cdskier]

Interesting. Sounds like you follow it pretty closely. Are you an investor?

I guess it also confirms my thoughts yesterday about things not being as good for Vail. If your product is so awesome, why discount it?

Hah...nope. Only spent 5 minutes looking at the stock's recent activity (and related quick take articles from analysts) this morning.

 

[jimmywilson69]

while earnings were down, they beat their projection

 

[dblskifanatic]

Interesting. Sounds like you follow it pretty closely. Are you an investor?

I guess it also confirms my thoughts yesterday about things not being as good for Vail. If your product is so awesome, why discount it?

This has nothing to do with the quality of their product and all about getting back the to their peak pass sales prior to COVID. Vail at their peak was at 950,000 passes sold. When Ikon was announced sales dropped. Last year sales came back to 850,000 but they want to break the 1 million mark!

 

[cdskier]

This has nothing to do with the quality of their product and all about getting back the to their peak pass sales prior to COVID. Vail at their peak was at 950,000 passes sold. When Ikon was announced sales dropped. Last year sales came back to 850,000 but they want to break the 1 million mark!

They sold 1.4M passes for this year according to the article from the Denver Post.

 

[slatham]

MTN down 7% right now. I guess Wall Street isn't exactly enamored with this approach

Analysts were caught off guard by the magnitude of the pass price reduction. You have to sell a lot more passes and/or burgers and beers to make up the price cut.

 

[mbedle]

They are selling them - waiting room is back up and running..

 

[ThatGuy]

Im sure they’re going to sell an unprecedented amount of passes. I’m riding the Vail-hate bandwagon but if I had the disposable income I’d get the Northeast Midweek Pass just because it’s worth it for the Stowe trips alone. Seems Vail are hedging on people buying their pass and forgoing day tickets since after three trips you’ve paid off the cheapest of the passes. Is this sustainable in the long term or going to make the loyal customers happy, probably not. Only time will tell.

 

[Dickc]

It's not one way or the other. A happy medium can be achieved.

That made me think of this Blondie song....

 

[kendo]

I'd point out that while people express the greatest concern with lift lines, just as big of an issue is snow quality in the East. Trails are just going to get scraped down to hardpack that much faster. This will require much more snowmaking to resurface trails. At least in New Hampshire, Vail absolutely sucked at snowmaking this winter. The roll out was slow and their willingness to periodically resurface was far less than Peak.

doubt snowmaking will improve significantly going forward.

Not when Katz reports on his recent investors call ... While the company’s business has declined, the company still has plenty of liquid assets, including $1.4 billion in cash on hand. Katz attributed the company’s financial position to both guest loyalty and a “thoughtful, disciplined approach to expenses.”

Snowmaking = expense. A lot of snowmaking = undisciplined expenses. If they were 'thoughtful' about their eastern resorts, they'd at least add a snowmaking icon to their trail report templates.

 

[abc]

Vail are hedging on people buying their pass and forgoing day tickets since after three trips you’ve paid off the cheapest of the passes

That's the kind of math Vail would love people to perpetuate!

Raise the day ticket rate sky high. Then all of a sudden, the "breakeven point" drops significantly even if the season pass price didn't change. Or raise the daily rate high enough, even an increase of the season pass still end up "breaking even" faster!!!

Vail isn't "hedging their bet" on anything. They did this on purpose. And they know what the result will be. As long as the day ticket is super expensive, whatever the season pass price, people will still be "better off" buying a pass!

 

[kingslug]

Its why SB day tix for weekend was up to 169.00
Only people there had a pass...and me.

 

[cdskier]

Its why SB day tix for weekend was up to 169.00
Only people there had a pass...and me.

That was part of their strategy to limit ticket sales to manage capacity as opposed to any reservation requirements for passholders...

Shedding Some Light On Our Ticket Strategy - SugarBlog

Oh boy! It's time to take a look at another one of the most commonly written items in our guest surveys and social media comments: lift ticket pricing. Pricing is something every resort always hears about, year in and year out, but I've noticed that this year in particular there has been a lot of

blog.sugarbush.com

 

[Teleskier]

Its why SB day tix for weekend was up to 169.00

Sarcasm: That should make the people who want to make skiing more exclusive and expensive to keep the day-tripper riffraff out happy?

Didn't Stratton already invent that strategy years ago?