Week of February 2nd, storm speculation

[jrmagic]

GFS for Sunday (which is what the US government forecasts go on) the rain/snow line bisects Vermont almost in half, on a diagonal line from SW to NE (i.e. / ).

NAM for Sunday has Vermont completely in rain on Saturday night, then completely below 32 by Sunday morning at 6am, with snow also at that time probably till late morning.

Canadian for Sunday is VERY similar to the GFS, r/s cuts through Vermont on same SW to NE line, but a bit further south.

Is there snow on the ground in Vermont right now everything (i.e. places other than ski resorts)? The models dont take into account cold air damning so hopefully that r/s line will be a touch lower than depicted.

There is snow on the ground all along Rt 11 and on 7 south from there but not tons.

 

[fbrissette]

Jay Peak is the nice 6-8 inches sweet spot. NIce skiing on Sunday and a nice prelude of bigger things to come next week (hopefully).

 

[MadMadWorld]

Jay Peak is the nice 6-8 inches sweet spot. NIce skiing on Sunday and a nice prelude of bigger things to come next week (hopefully).

Wildcat is also in line to get some much needed help.

 

[billski]

For this weekend, It's all going to be about elevation.
At JP, it's never going to get above freezing from the base on up. anticipated they will see 5"

At MRG on Sat. night, for about six hours it will be above freezing at the base stay below freezing from mid mountain upward. Suggests a mix during this period. 1.6" anticipated

at Mt. snow, looking for the base to be above freezing for about 21 hours, and the summit above freezing for about 15 hours. About 1/2" expected. Go make snow cones.

Next week's storm will be measured in feet...

 

[Boston Bulldog]

Next week's storm (Tuesday) is going to be an absolute beast. This thing is freaking loaded with moisture and when it hits, its going to be a massive front end thump of heavy snow. Once that 5-6 hour thump passes (We may very well get a foot plus in that thump) SNE will switch to light rain and ice while they dryslot while Ski country will continue to crank snow, albeit lighter.

This is a classic SWFE, 07-08 had a ton of storms like this, and they came in fast and furious before everyone dryslotted. On average everywhere got 8-12 regionwide, and I don't see how this one will be any different, except for one wrinkle. This time it looks like the dryslot will miss to our south, and while the northern ski areas may lose some of the ferocity in the thump, they will stay all snow and not flip to zr and dryslot. When you take the thumper/dryslot and the lighter snows to the north into account. All of New England north of the pike should get a uniform 8-12.

SWFE's are known for their thump and their massive dryslot and ice on the backside. This time, we may be all snow and if we aren't, the ice will seal in the base with a kiss.

 

[Boston Bulldog]

Rule of thumb with these storms: The thump comes in sooner than you think, but the dryslot arrives faster than you want.

Here's what I mean (expect something similar. This is 12/16/07)
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/c/c0/Radar_loop_Dec_16_storm.gif

 

[Cornhead]

For this weekend, It's all going to be about elevation.
At JP, it's never going to get above freezing from the base on up. anticipated they will see 5"

At MRG on Sat. night, for about six hours it will be above freezing at the base stay below freezing from mid mountain upward. Suggests a mix during this period. 1.6" anticipated

at Mt. snow, looking for the base to be above freezing for about 21 hours, and the summit above freezing for about 15 hours. About 1/2" expected. Go make snow cones.

Next week's storm will be measured in feet...

Mansfield? I hope you are on target for next week's storm, I'd love to ski feet of snow on something besides a 500 ft hill in North Central NY this year. It has been great methadone for this addict, however.

If Stowe gets 5" of heavy snow this weekend, then a bigger dump on top next week, things should be pretty schweet, fingers and toes crossed. You guys are definitely overdue, and I'm on vacation.

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[skifree]

Mansfield? I hope you are on target for next week's storm, I'd love to ski feet of snow on something besides a 500 ft hill in North Central NY this year. It has been great methadone for this addict, however.

If Stowe gets 5" of heavy snow this weekend, then a bigger dump on top next week, things should be pretty schweet, fingers and toes crossed. You guys are definitely overdue, and I'm

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Vacation? You ski like every day!

 

[BenedictGomez]

Next week's storm (Tuesday) is going to be an absolute beast. This thing is freaking loaded with moisture and when it hits, its going to be a massive front end thump of heavy snow. Once that 5-6 hour thump passes (We may very well get a foot plus in that thump) SNE will switch to light rain and ice while they dryslot while Ski country will continue to crank snow, albeit lighter.

What model are you looking at? I dont see anything for Tuesday.

For this weekend, It's all going to be about elevation.
At JP, it's never going to get above freezing from the base on up. anticipated they will see 5"

I'd go with latitude even more over elevation given that the projected Rain/Snow line is being so dang far north. But yeah, hopefully elevation will make that line "bogus" in a few places.

But if I was traveling and could go anywhere, I probably wouldnt risk anything south of Stowe/Smuggs, and would hit Jay Peak if travel wasnt an option.

 

[Boston Bulldog]

BG, I meant Wednesday

 

[Cannonball]

Next week's storm (Tuesday) is going to be an absolute beast. This thing is freaking loaded with moisture and when it hits, its going to be a massive front end thump of heavy snow. Once that 5-6 hour thump passes (We may very well get a foot plus in that thump) SNE will switch to light rain and ice while they dryslot while Ski country will continue to crank snow, albeit lighter.

This is a classic SWFE, 07-08 had a ton of storms like this, and they came in fast and furious before everyone dryslotted. On average everywhere got 8-12 regionwide, and I don't see how this one will be any different, except for one wrinkle. This time it looks like the dryslot will miss to our south, and while the northern ski areas may lose some of the ferocity in the thump, they will stay all snow and not flip to zr and dryslot. When you take the thumper/dryslot and the lighter snows to the north into account. All of New England north of the pike should get a uniform 8-12.

SWFE's are known for their thump and their massive dryslot and ice on the backside. This time, we may be all snow and if we aren't, the ice will seal in the base with a kiss.

Wow! I just don't see it. But admittedly I'm watching the marine models (for work) more than the mtn models (for fun).

I'd bet ya a 12-pack on it but your version seems far enough out there that crack might be a better wager :O

I don't know if I want you to be right or not. Would love the snow, but I need to get some work done offshore on Tuesday.

 

[BenedictGomez]

What the flippedy-freak?!!?!!??

Now the Canadian has most of NJ getting something like 4" or 5" on Monday due to colder temps and a slightly better track (not that I'm complaining!). We went snowshoeing the other night and my gf went xc-skiing after work yesterday. This winter reminds me of when I lived in northern Vermont.

 

[deadheadskier]

Funny

This winter reminds me of when I lived in Ohio one winter. no bueno

 

[BenedictGomez]

BG, I meant Wednesday

Yeah, I think 7" is a sure thing up north as long as this one doesnt come in further south than expected. Places like Catskills and Berks could get 9" or 10" if the temps stay cold enough and there's not mixing and/or rain.

 

[from_the_NEK]

Funny

This winter reminds me of when I lived in Ohio one winter. no bueno

Or the winters I spent in Iowa while I was in college. :-?

 

[twinplanx]

Wow! I just don't see it. But admittedly I'm watching the marine models (for work) more than the mtn models (for fun).

I don't know if I want you to be right or not. Would love the snow, but I need to get some work done offshore on Tuesday.

Interesting, if you don't mind my asking. What do you do for work?

So even at 2/3 days, out this Mondays event is still anybody guess?

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[BenedictGomez]

So even at 2/3 days, out this Mondays event is still anybody guess?

It seems with to me that with snowstorms MOST of them are somewhat anybodies guess 3 days out, at least to the extend they just about all have some surprise in store.

The models arent good enough for perfect precision. Look how commonly even 1 day out a model says X-area will be the bullseye, then the next day "X-area plus 60 miles from there" wound up being the bullseye (I'm sure you've seen this happen with central Vermont or central New Hampshire or vice-versa). How about the Philly/south Jersey surprise last month when that area was supposed to get 1 to 3 inches, and they wound up with 10 to 14? Granted that's a dramatic example, but point is, the models are hardly infallible.

 

[ScottySkis]

Interesting, if you don't mind my asking. What do you do for work?

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I think he sells MJ lol.

 

[twinplanx]

That's, ^ not cool Scotty. I am legitimately interested in what Cannonball is doing offshore this time of year. My guess is Cod fishing. So much weed is grown in closets & basements I hardly think there's a need for the Smugglers Blues. Besides it would be really difficult to pull of a mission of this type this time of year without the recreational boating traffic.

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[Cannonball]

Interesting, if you don't mind my asking. What do you do for work?

Marine ecology. We have a long-term monitoring program in Mass Bay and go out year round. February is always the toughest.

I think he sells MJ lol.

Well I ain't getting rich doing science.