Week of Jan 1st

[billski]

Lionel has the most hopeful of forecast of the year:

"UPDATE at 1PM on JANUARY 1st 2012:
Well right now I’m pretty happy about what the next 48 hours are going to bring. As noted above, as a low pressure system moves across the north a strong cold front will push through. Some mixed precip and rain will be on the front end. By around midnight tonight temps will have fallen to below freezing and be about -8c at elevation. With the location of the low a southwest flow will develop. These patterns do a great job of sucking up lake moisture and streaming it into the ADK (like it often just shoots right at whiteface) and the Greens. Of course that’s good when combined with cold temps and orographic lift. Starting maybe 6-8 am tomorrow we should some great dendritic growth with the flakes. All up and down the ADK and Greens the system should run for at least the following 24 hours. Overall when the event winds down on tuesday night…or there abouts…I’m pretty certain somebody is getting 8+ of blower…or more if banding sets up."

Schuss more at: NEW YEAR UPDATE: Another Holiday Weekend, Another Holiday Weekend Weather Outlook (with no – well ok just a little- booing AND POW) : Famous Internet Skiers - Earn Your Turns

 

[steamboat1]

Certainly hope the forcast is right.
l"ll be at K Wed. morning.
It's gonna be nippy though.
Ya gotta do what ya gotta do.

 

[WinnChill]

Yep, upslope looks decent early this week. Forecasts are updated but still along the lines of what we had before New Years. VT still looks to make out the best the next couple of days (they usually do with upslope like this). Westerly winds set up today which gives most VT resorts the chance at some accumulations, but then shift NW on Tues which keeps Jay/Smuggs/Stowe/Sugarbush in the upslope zone--less for southern resorts--northern NH/VT resorts pick up some as well but most of it on Tues. I tried to break it all down in the updated forecasts this morning--hope it helps.

 

[billski]

Thanks Cameron! I like your numbers and the context.

 

[billski]

Encouraging Words

NWS Burlington has an amazing FB page

Happy New Year from the staff at your National Weather Service office in Burlington! Here's an interesting "Did You Know?" statistic: With November and December now in the past, snowfall at Burlington International Airport through that November to December period was 12.6 inches lower than normal. It's important to note, though, that last winter also started off slow in terms of snowfall accumulations, but several significant snowstorms later last winter contributed to one of Burlington's snowiest winters on record.

 

[billski]

NWS Binghamton is getting excited:

Click the “like” button if you are glad that heavy lake effect snow is finally in the forecast! Lake effect snow warnings and advisories are up for most of our NY counties. Here is a map of snowfall totals today through Tuesday. Remember you can always get the last map here (http://www.erh.noaa.gov/bgm/winter/stormtotal/stormtotalsnow.php). You can use the legend at the top or go to (weather.gov/bgm) for snowfall amounts in your area. Now that we expect snow, we want to hear from you! If you want to send us snowfall reports read this first (http://www.facebook.com/events/249613511764208/). We look forward to getting some reports!

"PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY MEANS LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS FORECAST THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL DIFFICULT IN SOME AREAS. LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TYPICALLY ALIGN THEMSELVES IN BANDS AND WILL LIKELY BE INTENSE ENOUGH TO DROP SEVERAL INCHES IN LOCALIZED AREAS. USE CAUTION WHEN TRAVELING."

 

[WinnChill]

Thanks Cameron! I like your numbers and the context.

I hope it works out--I know everyone has had their sights set on this week, so we'll see. I see Sugarloaf picked up 5" just from the front last night--a little better than I thought (few inches). Spotty streams of showers filling in across NVT--lighter stuff south but over about a 36 hour period, it'll add up to a light/moderate upslope event.

If anyone has some observations/ground truth to what's happening, please post!

 

[ScottySkis]

I love this weather forecast

 

[billski]

NWS Burlington posted this response to me a short time ago:

US National Weather Service Burlington VT Thanks for your post, Bill. The storm total snow graphic for our area that you had linked still is valid; heavier snow amounts will remain confined to the Northern Adirondacks and St. Lawrence Valley from lake-effect snow through today. Snow amounts will drop off ( < 2 inches) for points east of there, except in the higher terrain. The second link is from our sister office in Binghamton. Central and western NY state will experience more impacts across a broader area from lake effect snow.

Which means that upslope is out of their scope. Road trip?

 

[billski]

I hope it works out--I know everyone has had their sights set on this week, so we'll see. I see Sugarloaf picked up 5" just from the front last night--a little better than I thought (few inches). Spotty streams of showers filling in across NVT--lighter stuff south but over about a 36 hour period, it'll add up to a light/moderate upslope event.

If anyone has some observations/ground truth to what's happening, please post!

I am heading west to Watertown with 3500 snow guns pointed east. That should help with the upper level air, don't you think?

 

[steamboat1]

Josh over at the MRG weather blog doesn't seem to be as optimistic.

http://madriverglenweather.blogspot.com/

 

[billski]

Wunderground reports the summit of Stratton at 0.3 °F. What precision! Not that it matters much! Base is at 8F
average winds at 12.5, gusting to 23. Ouch!

 

[billski]

Snow Ridge NY
has 10" new

Whiteface
SUMMIT QUAD on Wind Hold FROSTBITE WARNING
3-5" on Summit. Kiss that goodbye!