Winter Forecast 2015-2016

[ALLSKIING]

http://www.weatherbell.com/videos/the-saturday-summary-43/

 

[prsboogie]

Where the hell is all the Almanac guys!!

 

[BenedictGomez]

Doesn't this chart imply a 3-4 degree above normal MEAN forecast, which would still allow for plenty of below freezing snowmaking temps?

That's in Celsius, which is > 7F difference = bad news because you're getting statistically less opportunity for "snow shots on goal", as well as increased probability for things like rain. So, yes, there would still be lots of below freezing weather, but it's definitely bad news if it panned out. Hopefully it's wrong.

On the bright side, models are starting to show some cold temps returning in about 10 days, hopefully it's a pattern flip and not another short-term aberration

 

[slatham]

There is hope. Euro and GEF EPS and even CSV2 are showing pattern change starting around the new year. Even hints at a Sudden Stratospheric Warming over the poles mid to late Jan (which displaces the "polar vortex" to lower latitudes). Will it hold, and will storms and cold meet up to produce dumps? Too early. But its a marked change from what we've had and are looking at for the next couple of days. Lets hope Thursday temps are not seen again until April!

 

[timmyc]

...

 

[Boston Bulldog]

!!!!!!!!

Hold the phones, we may have something next week.

 

[Tin]

Put the bowl down.

 

[ss20]

!!!!!!!!

Hold the phones, we may have something next week.

Yeah, I called my good friend Noah and told him to get the ark ready.



If rain were snow, we'd be losing our sh!t right about now.

 

[billski]

'NUF SAID.

 

[Boston Bulldog]

This is unbelievable. What a horrible December.

 

[Tin]

This is unbelievable. What a horrible December.

Was hopeful for a Berkshire dump until this morning.

 

[billski]

In freaking credible. Snow ridge video http://www.wwnytv.com/news/local/Snow-Dumps-on-Turin-Snow-Ridge-Opens-Trails-363090401.html

<a href="http://www.wwnytv.com/news/local/Snow-Dumps-on-Turin-Snow-Ridge-Opens-Trails-363090401.html" target="_blank">[video]http://player.bimvid.com/v2/vps/wwny/de2936b503f1e663e325c14320a2d4a10bd07e5e/ref=aHR0cDovL3d3dy53d255dHYuY29tL25ld3MvbG9jYWwvU2 5vdy1EdW1wcy1vbi1UdXJpbi1Tbm93LVJpZGdlLU9wZW5zLVRy YWlscy0zNjMwOTA0MDEuaHRtbA[/video]

 

[ALLSKIING]

Forecast does look much Improved for the start of January. Hopefully it holds.

 

[billski]

Latest I heard is it starts between New Year's and MLK weekend, couple good shots during the winter, and most natural snow will happen in February.

 

[bdfreetuna]

My wife told me this morning that she is concerned about my bad weather induced mental health (I subjected the poor woman to a global warming tirade last night). Thank you for your positivity. It helps with my one day at a time approach...

Global warming? Try El Nino. Did you forget the last two years?

Mental health can be improved by learning about how weather actually works and ignoring the ignoramus circle jerkers meetings in Paris.

 

[ss20]

Global warming? Try El Nino. Did you forget the last two years?

Mental health can be improved by learning about how weather actually works and ignoring the ignoramus circle jerkers meetings in Paris.

Guess it's that time of the month...

 

[Tin]

Global warming? Try El Nino. Did you forget the last two years?

Mental health can be improved by learning about how weather actually works and ignoring the ignoramus circle jerkers meetings in Paris.

THE CONTRAILS ARE COMING TO GET YOU!

 

[ss20]

THE CONTRAILS ARE COMING TO GET YOU!

I was waiting for that :grin: Couldn't remember if it was Tuna or not.

We love you Tuna, it's just been a long time since we've seen measurable snow and it shows.

 

[timmyc]

...

 

[BenedictGomez]

No, I did not forget. I understand that weather conditions are inherently variable and produce both good years and bad years for skiers. But I'm not sure why this means I shouldn't acknowledge and be concerned about the long term weather patterns showing rising global temperatures with potentially devastating consequences for skiers, not to mention the entire planet.

I'll just stick with these guys and hope against hope that reason and sanity somehow prevail in the debate over climate change: http://protectourwinters.org/

Even if you believe in Global Warming, there is no real world evidence of "potentially devastating consequences for skiers".

Disregarding the fact that the infallible Climate Change scientists have been shown to repeatedly overstate the potential warming (unintentionally AND intentionally) that they claim should be occurring over time, the reality is you're currently looking at VERY small changes in temperature. At some point.......it's going to happen.......surely.....people are going to start to question how completely unreliable the Climate Change scientists models are, and why they haven't been right. I have no other example I can give you for a hypothesis that is seemingly broken or at very least deeply flawed, yet is allowed to "simmer" in a purgatory of acceptance while we wait for it to be "correct again" at some point in the future.