Superpasses: more crowds?

kingslug · Feb 26, 2020

We bought it to use it..we could have bought near SB, much cheaper but no town to hang out in. We are thinking of getting both Epic and Ikon next year, makes sense as they are so close.
on another note. A local at Hunter who works there is upset as all the affordable properties have been bought and turned into air B&B's which has made it very difficult for locals wanting to own a home. Its causing staffing problems.

cdskier · Feb 26, 2020

abc said:
There're 2 major motivation for buying properties: 1) to use/enjoy, 2) hope for appreciation. Most people, of course, are hoping for both. But priorities differ on how big each factor is.

With real estate the way they appreciated in the last couple decades, people got conditioned to expect big appreciation, and the enjoyment/use comes for free. Well, that may or may not last forever in an overall scene. But if you get enough enjoyment out of it, there's less expectation for huge appreciation. Less chance to be disappointed.

I've only had my condo for about 9 years now, but already have had a ton of enjoyment/use from it. I don't use it quite as much in the non-winter time as I'd like (too much other stuff going on usually), but I still like knowing it is there if I want to take a last minute drive up any time of the year. Summer and Fall are beautiful times in VT and I wish I could spend more time up there. A bit harder to justify a 5 hour drive though when there's no skiing!

As for appreciation, my condo wasn't super-expensive to begin with (only ~125k). I think there's in general somewhat of a lack of lower priced options, so I'm not overly concerned about it going down in value. More expensive ones could be an issue (mainly because I think a lot of them were over-priced to begin with). If mine goes up over time, great. If it stays the same, fine as well. If it goes down a little, I'll still have had years of use out of it so I'm not going to be too concerned about it.

EPB · Feb 26, 2020

kingslug said:
on another note. A local at Hunter who works there is upset as all the affordable properties have been bought and turned into air B&B's which has made it very difficult for locals wanting to own a home. Its causing staffing problems.

I think that's a bubble waiting to burst across not just ski country, but anywhere people vacation. One can justify paying X for a second home as long as they can rent it out like it's 2020 and it's been 12 years since the last recession.

We'll see how many people can't afford their places when they're rented out half as much as anticipated soon enough.

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drjeff · Feb 26, 2020

abc said:
Precisely!

Property owners in the first northeast mega-resort aren't losing money because of it...yet (or ever)

There're 2 major motivation for buying properties: 1) to use/enjoy, 2) hope for appreciation. Most people, of course, are hoping for both. But priorities differ on how big each factor is.

With real estate the way they appreciated in the last couple decades, people got conditioned to expect big appreciation, and the enjoyment/use comes for free. Well, that may or may not last forever in an overall scene. But if you get enough enjoyment out of it, there's less expectation for huge appreciation. Less chance to be disappointed.

My wife and I bought almost 14 years ago now, off the pre financial crisis peak prices, but still ultimately saw about a 30% decrease at one point about 10 years ago over where we bought it. Just about back to the original purchase price now based on what comparable units are currently listing for/selling the last few months.

We bought it with the intent to use and enjoy, and have done exactly that with it ever since, the equity side of it, while nice, has never really been a consideration/driving force behind our decision to buy. Just a way to allow our family to enjoy the ski lifestyle as well as the non ski season mountain lifestyle that my wife and I both loved and now are kids do as well.

Never rented ours. No current intention of doing so. And per our most recent annual association meeting this past Columbus Day weekend, based on owner reported stats, out of the roughly 210 units in our complex less than 50 of them are in some type of rental situation (either short or long term) with actually more long term rentals being in the Summer months than in the winter months. And off the top of my head, none of the group of 12 other families that my family regularly associates with who also own in the same complex that we do, do any type of rentals with their condo either. All for personal enjoyment purposes, all bought at various times between 25 and 2 years ago

BenedictGomez · Feb 26, 2020

abc said:
With real estate the way they appreciated in the last couple decades, people got conditioned to expect big appreciation, and the enjoyment/use comes for free. Well, that may or may not last forever

It wont. Cant actually.

cdskier · Feb 26, 2020

kingslug said:
we could have bought near SB, much cheaper but no town to hang out in.

No town to hang out in? That's news to me (and I'm sure others that hang out a lot in the MRV)

machski · Feb 26, 2020

thetrailboss said:
Again, if you paid for the Stowe or Deer Valley experience, and now those brands are equated with cheap EPIC/IKON, then you've lost the value for your property.

IKON and EPIC do not equate to high value clientele, not even in the rental market.

Aspen, DV and to some extent Stowe are extreme examples at the ultra posh end. I get those folks are probably upset their private digs have been eroded. Given the $$ DV and Aspen command, maybe they should have gone Yellowstone club to begin with instead of a public Access resort.

I would argue it's not fair to lump that ultra high end in with the vast majority of more midstream property owners. I doubt many of those are having mega pass anxiety, probably just the opposite. Especially if they rent out when not using, I'm sure they can command more or at the least find it easier to fill more often.

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mbedle · Feb 26, 2020

I know this has been thrown around a couple of times and I've heard different stories, but based on tax parcel records, Vail did not purchase the toll house base area from Mt. Mansfield Co. So I am thinking that moving any ski school activities down there would not be possible. Assuming that Mansfield keep it for development rights.

1dog · Feb 26, 2020

CD,

It sux in MRV - lets keep that thought going ok? Really, nothing to see or do here folks - go to K-Mart or $$towe. . . .

as for recessions - they come and go - over due for sure - but places with 30K-40K beds get hit hardest and 1st. . . . as mentioned, nothing to see in Bush country. . . .

assets inflated by low rates will stick around for a longer time that anyone ( inlcuding me) predicted - we still have the highest T bills in the industrialised world a 2% or less. . . and less risk than other markets. . . . and when we go - thats it for the worlds economy. . . .lower RE values will be the lest of our problems . . . . .

2.875% on my mortgage. after inflation and taxes thats essentially free money.

JimG. · Feb 26, 2020

deadheadskier said:
I get all that. For me the allure of a place near a ski area is all about simplification such that my downtime is more down with less stress. I work my tail off during the week in a very stressful job. I travel a ton for work too. So, weekend day trips even 90 minutes or less away, seems like a lot of work to get my kid on the hill. That multiplies in 2-3 years when our daughter is ready to start. This week we are in Stowe for five days. Massive production to get the family of four + dog all packed up and ready to go, Also took a bunch of research to find the exact right spot for the five of us.

A seasonal rental just seems so much easier to deal with. I move in December 1st. All the crap I went through to load up for five days here, I do one time and it lasts four months vs five days. I just get in my car Friday afternoons with the family, drive two hours and arrive at a place I have everything set up and comfortable for an entire season. If something breaks at the house during those 4 months, it's not my dime to fix it. Rental term ends March 31, we pack up, move out and I don't have a care in the world about happens to the place all summer.

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I hear you and I'm glad those days of having 3 young children are long gone for us. Being a ski dad is a lot of work and little relaxation.

So any purchase would be a retirement home for my wife and I. She loves the mountains in NH but isn't a skier. That doesn't make her try to keep me from skiing which gives us both some personal time. And she will enjoy all the other activities in the Whites.

But we will honestly be just as happy staying put in NY and I'll be very content to continue my current skiing agenda. And we would spend at least 6 months a year in NY anyway and would be there more if we didn't need to spend 6 months at a ski home to make it our primary residence.

So as I write more I realize that maybe the $250,000 I'm budgeting for a ski home may turn out to be the Corvette I've always wanted and $150,000 or so saved in the bank. Or maybe I will rent places for 8-10K per season like you are thinking. Like I said, it's going to be on my terms.

JimG. · Feb 26, 2020

eastern powder baby said:
I think that's a bubble waiting to burst across not just ski country, but anywhere people vacation. One can justify paying X for a second home as long as they can rent it out like it's 2020 and it's been 12 years since the last recession.

We'll see how many people can't afford their places when they're rented out half as much as anticipated soon enough.

I would only buy a ski house for personal use and enjoyment. I have no desire to be a landlord or to allow other people to live in my personal space. I buy properties to live in, not as an investment.

EPB · Feb 26, 2020

JimG. said:
I would only buy a ski house for personal use and enjoyment. I have no desire to be a landlord or to allow other people to live in my personal space. I buy properties to live in, not as an investment.

It's not my cup of tea either. I'm a decade off from it (yes, I'm a millennial), but my philosophy is that one really shouldn't buy a second home they can't afford to pay for without rental income. More power to those who want to defray costs by using Airbnb, but it's a risky proposition to expect the property's likely inflated 2019 rental income to pay the bills.

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kingslug · Feb 26, 2020

We rent it out once in a while..no issues so far.

abc · Feb 26, 2020

eastern powder baby said:
my philosophy is that one really shouldn't buy a second home they can't afford to pay for without rental income. More power to those who want to defray costs by using Airbnb, but it's a risky proposition to expect the property's likely inflated 2019 rental income to pay the bills.

People don't start out wanting to be landlords. Hell, many people shudder at the thought of strangers invading their pride and joy.

But once you're in the hunt for a property, the realtors really get under your skin!

They do their best to paint the rosiest picture. Naturally, that includes renting your home every weekend you're not using it! Suddenly, your x dollar budget got inflated to 2x because... the house is so much bigger and nicer. "and you can afford it by renting it out"! :roll:

That's how some ended up with properties they can't afford without the rental income. More expensive property also carry a bigger tax burden too. They're the most vulnerable to economic hiccups.

(Even as "experienced" house hunters many here are, I know it happens exactly the same way! It's only after you got back home you slap yourself in the head realizing all that rosy picture was just fantasy. Then you get back on track sticking to your budget. But it's so easy to get "talked" into more than your can afford, TOO EASY!)

cdskier · Feb 26, 2020

eastern powder baby said:
It's not my cup of tea either. I'm a decade off from it (yes, I'm a millennial), but my philosophy is that one really shouldn't buy a second home they can't afford to pay for without rental income. More power to those who want to defray costs by using Airbnb, but it's a risky proposition to expect the property's likely inflated 2019 rental income to pay the bills.

I agree with this philosophy as well. If you are depending on rental income to be able to afford it, that's definitely a lot of risk. I'm the type of person that absolutely hates having debt or loans and if I needed to rely on rental income to afford a vacation home I'd probably lose some sleep at night worrying about what happens if it didn't pull in the amount of rent you expected.

Personally I "rent" my condo out 1 weekend a year to a family member that I fully trust. That's it.

cdskier · Feb 26, 2020

abc said:
People don't start out wanting to be landlords. Hell, many people shudder at the thought of strangers invading their pride and joy.

But once you're in the hunt for a property, the realtors really get under your skin!

They do their best to paint the rosiest picture. Naturally, that includes renting your home every weekend you're not using it! Suddenly, your x dollar budget got inflated to 2x because... the house is so much bigger and nicer. "and you can afford it by renting it out"! :roll:

You're right about that. Even when I was buying my condo the realtor was trying to really talk up the rental potential. I still set my budget based on what I believed I could safely afford with no rental income at all and I stuck with it. (For fun I did run numbers using potential rental income too, but that was more to show how much "less" it would cost me per month rather than how much "more" I could go up in budget if I decided to try renting.) In retrospect, even without rental income I certainly could have gone for something "bigger and better", but I love the place I bought and am perfectly happy with it. No regrets with my decision.

kingslug · Feb 26, 2020

We first looked at a house..it needed repairs and was on a very weird property..NG
Next was 2 large condo under construction..really large. Well..you could rent it out and use the finished basement..um...no...no living in a basement..its a basement.
Oh..then an original house..really original..interesting but no.
The last one was a 2 bed condo right behind Sushi Oshi..11 units furnished..real nice but a little small. I didn't like it..then we thought about it and it was perfect. And so its been.

Zermatt · Feb 27, 2020

New Ikon Passes are up. $899 for renewals (decrease from last season). Haven't looked through all the resorts yet, but looks to be about the same......

Whoa! Unlimited at Sugarbush.

drjeff · Feb 27, 2020

billo said:
New Ikon Passes are up. $899 for renewals (decrease from last season). Haven't looked through all the resorts yet, but looks to be about the same......

Unlimited days now for Sugarbush, and it appears that the resorts with limited days are now all 7 days and not 5...

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Zermatt · Feb 27, 2020

drjeff said:
Unlimited days now for Sugarbush, and it appears that the resorts with limited days are now all 7 days and not 5...

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I don't follow that....

Jackson and Aspen are gone from the Base Pass, it's an add on now.

Superpasses: more crowds?

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