12/19 - 12/20 Storm Discussion Thread

[drjeff]

This storm and it's potential is almost comical to read about on the accuweather forums right now. It's closing in on a 1000 page thread!! Granted, a good chunk of the regulars there live in the mid-atlantic region, and pretty much will usually have a bunch of them getting all hyped and predicting "storm of the century" type events atleast once a month between November and April based on computer models 10 days out , but for this one, when it looks like those in the DC Metro area are going to get blasted, I'd bet that there's a couple of "sticky keyboards" happening Mega Weather Porn going on!! :lol: :lol: :lol:

Still feel pretty good about the chances of all of New England getting a signifiacant white Christmas present from mother nature about a week from now

 

[WinnChill]

Oh, I know! I can't keep up with those forums sometimes....like 20 posts a minute...it would take a day just to read through an hour's worth. Ugh!

Gotta watch that leading edge stuff for next week's system--with the trough axis just west and a Great Lakes track we'll be threatened with some front end mixing. We'll see.

Cheers

 

[Greg]

Haven't looked at the Accuweather forums. EasternWX is bad enough. It's literally several posts every minute in each thread. Usually, I'll just jump back to the last page or two and try to pull some info out of it. Pretty funny. These guys are into it for sure.

 

[4aprice]

Man I need this thing to shift ever so slightly N & W. Pocono's are right on the cusp of the precip. Only looking at 1-3 now but close to at least 3-6. According to NAM very sharp precip cutoff. Cold air gives this thing a shot of over performing with good ratios.

Alex

Lake Hopatcong, NJ

 

[drjeff]

Man I need this thing to shift ever so slightly N & W. Pocono's are right on the cusp of the precip. Only looking at 1-3 now but close to at least 3-6. According to NAM very sharp precip cutoff. Cold air gives this thing a shot of over performing with good ratios.

Alex

Lake Hopatcong, NJ

The cold air with this one is both the saviour and the bastard. Where the moisture happens, you're going to see some pretty high ratios (atleast 8:1, probably more like 10:1 and maybe even higher) that will really let the fluff pile up (good chance of some Utah quality blower with this one), however that same cold air is going to fight like mad to block the moisture from getting in and getting all the way down to the ground. Wouldn't suprise me at all if along the fringes of the storm if you see a dusting to an inch and then maybe 50 miles away you'll see well over a foot - almost in a sense like a Lake Effect Snow event. Lots of dry fluff in one place, and then very close by, just a couple of flakes. Definately not you're typical East Coast winter storm (this time week )

 

[WJenness]

Weather folk...

I've got to trek down 95 to Myrtle Beach, SC.

Was planning on leaving the Boston area early (5am-ish) Saturday morning.

Good Idea? Bad Idea? What's my best option here?

Thanks,

-w

 

[wa-loaf]

Weather folk...

I've got to trek down 95 to Myrtle Beach, SC.

Was planning on leaving the Boston area early (5am-ish) Saturday morning.

Good Idea? Bad Idea? What's my best option here?

Thanks,

-w

Stop in West Virginia on your way down and ski the pow on Sunday at Snow Shoe!

Snowshoe's forecast is calling for up to 20 INCHES in the next two days. That means you should get in your car and get up here NOW, because there's no better place to be snowed-in than Snowshoe Mountain.

 

[drjeff]

Weather folk...

I've got to trek down 95 to Myrtle Beach, SC.

Was planning on leaving the Boston area early (5am-ish) Saturday morning.

Good Idea? Bad Idea? What's my best option here?

Thanks,

-w

Saturday the Baltimore/DC Metro area is probably going to get a good solid foot of snow Do I need to say anymore. In all seriousness, if you can leave NOW, do it, otherwise you're very, very likely to have road closures, gridlock, etc in the mid-atlantic region as they get walloped with more snow than their limited plows can handle

Best option, and even then it's not a great one, is avoid the I-95 corridor like the plague and get as far West as you can until you get South of the DC area, but even then, the VA/NC mountains are going to get dumped on too.

 

[WinnChill]

Weather folk...

I've got to trek down 95 to Myrtle Beach, SC.

Was planning on leaving the Boston area early (5am-ish) Saturday morning.

Good Idea? Bad Idea? What's my best option here?

Thanks,

-w

Bad idea...really bad idea.

 

[WJenness]

Stop in West Virginia on your way down and ski the pow on Sunday at Snow Shoe!

I wish... ski equipment is in Maine, and my poor dad who is coming with me would be bored to tears.

Thanks for the input guys, I'll have to discuss this with the family tonight and figure out a plan.

-w

 

[WJenness]

I wish... ski equipment is in Maine, and my poor dad who is coming with me would be bored to tears.

Thanks for the input guys, I'll have to discuss this with the family tonight and figure out a plan.

-w

Sub $300 airfare on orbitz is looking really good right now.

-w

 

[WinnChill]

Especially if you have family with you WJ, it would be huge safety issue. Like DRJeff said, it'll be virtually impassable down there.

 

[wa-loaf]

I wish... ski equipment is in Maine.

I think you need a second set ...

 

[WJenness]

Especially if you have family with you WJ, it would be huge safety issue. Like DRJeff said, it'll be virtually impassable down there.

It'll be me and my dad...

Just talked to all involved.

Departure now scheduled for Sunday PM / Monday AM depending on storm impact.

I feel better now.

Now if only my skis weren't in maine...

-w

 

[WJenness]

I think you need a second set ...

I left it ALL there (3 pairs of skis, two pairs of boots, almost all my gloves, my helmet, etc. etc) so I wouldn't have to deal with moving it when I move at the end of the month.

This weekend will be spent packing boxes I guess.

It's all good.

-w

 

[drjeff]

It'll be me and my dad...

Just talked to all involved.

Departure now scheduled for Sunday PM / Monday AM depending on storm impact.

I feel better now.

Now if only my skis weren't in maine...

-w

Good move on the change in departure time! I'm sure you'll get a kick out of the drive through the mid-atlantic reagion watching all the folks stare at the snowbanks with a dumbfounded look of their faces

 

[mikestaple]

11am National Weather models have the Boston weather folks updating their snow maps. The edge of this storm keeps moving further north. The edge is now past Manch-vegas. Of course, my 25 feet of vertical in the back yard look like it's going to hit the jackpot as I'm now in the 8 to 13 inch line.

So the snow line keeps moving north every 6 hours. TV weatherguy this morning said the cold air really won't let the storm track much further north. The storm's growing intensity is causing the snow line to continue its move north. The bigger the storm - the more likely it is to increase its dump total and expand the area affected. So a big monster off shore could be dumping on the smaller mountains of NH Saturday night into Sunday am.

 

[KingM]

Man, how I'd love to see this storm just slightly north. I'm guessing we're going to see zero in the North Country, unfortunately.

 

[St. Bear]

Man, how I'd love to see this storm just slightly north. I'm guessing we're going to see zero in the North Country, unfortunately.

You guys will get more than your fair share.

 

[hammer]

What are the chances of this being canceled?

Still no good for points north of Boston...

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
320 PM EST FRI DEC 18 2009

...MAJOR WINTER STORM POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND...

.LOW PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN AS IT TRACKS UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD
SATURDAY...AND SHOULD PASS SOUTHEAST OF NANTUCKET SUNDAY MORNING.
THIS COULD BECOME A MAJOR WINTER STORM FOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BRINGING
THE POTENTIAL FOR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS TO THE SOUTH COAST...CAPE COD
AND THE ISLANDS. HEAVY SNOW IS POSSIBLE AS FAR INLAND AS HARTFORD...
WORCESTER AND LAWRENCE.

CTZ002>004-MAZ005>007-011>018-RIZ001>004-190430-
/O.NEW.KBOX.WS.A.0009.091219T2100Z-091220T1700Z/
HARTFORD CT-TOLLAND CT-WINDHAM CT-CENTRAL MIDDLESEX MA-
WESTERN ESSEX MA-EASTERN ESSEX MA-EASTERN HAMPDEN MA-
SOUTHERN WORCESTER MA-WESTERN NORFOLK MA-SOUTHEAST MIDDLESEX MA-
SUFFOLK MA-EASTERN NORFOLK MA-NORTHERN BRISTOL MA-
WESTERN PLYMOUTH MA-NORTHWEST PROVIDENCE RI-
SOUTHEAST PROVIDENCE RI-WESTERN KENT RI-EASTERN KENT RI-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...HARTFORD...WINDSOR LOCKS...UNION...
VERNON...PUTNAM...WILLIMANTIC...FRAMINGHAM...LOWELL...LAWRENCE...
GLOUCESTER...SPRINGFIELD...MILFORD...WORCESTER...FOXBORO...
NORWOOD...CAMBRIDGE...BOSTON...QUINCY...TAUNTON...BROCKTON...
FOSTER...SMITHFIELD...PROVIDENCE...WEST GREENWICH...WARWICK
320 PM EST FRI DEC 18 2009

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TAUNTON HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM
WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING.

THIS WINTER STORM WATCH INCLUDES NORTHERN CONNECTICUT...NORTHERN
RHODE ISLAND...AND MUCH OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS.

STORM TOTALS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE FROM PROVIDENCE TO
BOSTON...WITH POSSIBLY AS MUCH AS 4 TO 8 INCHES FROM HARTFORD TO
WORCESTER AND LAWRENCE.

SNOW IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN SATURDAY EVENING...AND COULD BE HEAVY AT
TIMES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS ARE ALSO
EXPECTED.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS MORE THAN 6 INCHES OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE...
BUT NOT YET CERTAIN. KEEP IN MIND CHANGES IN THE STORM TRACK COULD
RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES. KEEP IN TOUCH WITH THE LATEST
FORECASTS...ESPECIALLY IF YOU HAVE TRAVEL PLANS.

&&

$$

JWD/NOCERA