12/19 - 12/20 Storm Discussion Thread

[Glenn]

The weather guy this AM mentioned the US models have this one going offshore. However...the European models bring it more inland. Hmmmmm...maybe we have a chance?

 

[drjeff]

The weather guy this AM mentioned the US models have this one going offshore. However...the European models bring it more inland. Hmmmmm...maybe we have a chance?

Glenn, in the weather community, unfortunately the Euro model has the reputation of being the "red headed step child" when it comes to predication scenarios. So when it's simulations are a bit different than a bunch of the other models (which is quite often) the Euro's simulation is something that you generally don't occupy too many brain cells with.

Also as of note, lately the Euro with respect to East Coast weather systems has been having storms tracking noticeably West of what their actual route ends up being. It may be nice to look at that model, but the vast majority of the time the Euro just doesn't deliver the goods

 

[billski]

the Euro's simulation is something that you generally don't occupy too many brain cells with.

lemme guess. It emanated in France?:???:

anyways, I'll start paying attention on Friday night if the probabilities improve. Otherwise, it's back to plan B -- midweek skiing next week.

 

[Glenn]

I knew I shouldn't have gotten my hopes up! :lol:

 

[SKIQUATTRO]

looking a bit more positive now......

 

[Masskier]

Glenn, in the weather community, unfortunately the Euro model has the reputation of being the "red headed step child" when it comes to predication scenarios. So when it's simulations are a bit different than a bunch of the other models (which is quite often) the Euro's simulation is something that you generally don't occupy too many brain cells with.

Also as of note, lately the Euro with respect to East Coast weather systems has been having storms tracking noticeably West of what their actual route ends up being. It may be nice to look at that model, but the vast majority of the time the Euro just doesn't deliver the goods

From AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1116 AM EST THU DEC 16 2010

HOWEVER...JUST REVIEWED THE 00Z ECMWF...WHICH TYPICALLY HANDLES
MED RANGE FCSTS THE BEST AND PERFORMS BETTER IN HIGHLY AMPLIFIED
PATTERNS. THIS SHOWS POTENT SOUTHERN STREAM INTERACTING WITH
NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY AND FORMING SFC LOW PRES OFF THE HATTERAS
COAST ON SATURDAY NIGHT. SFC LOW IS PROGGED TO TRACK NORTH AND BE
CAPTURED BY DEVELOPING AND CLOSING OFF MID/UPPER LVL CIRCULATION
OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES ON SUNDAY AND PLACES A 978MB LOW PRES
NEAR CAPE COD BY 06Z MONDAY. THE SFC LOW PRES IS PULLED INTO THE
GULF OF MAINE...THEN RE-CURVES OUT TO SEA BY 12Z TUES. THIS IS VERY
SIMILAR TO THE 12Z GFS SOLUTION AND 00Z 12/15/10 UKMET
SOLUTIONS...AND REMAINS ME OF THE JAN 1-3 STORM OF 2010. THIS
WOULD PLACE BACKSIDE DEFORMATION BAND WITH GOOD DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM THE ATLANTIC ACRS OUR REGION...WITH A
PLOWABLE SNOW FOR THE CPV AND POINTS EAST. HOWEVER...BEFORE
INCREASING POPS AND GETTING INTO GREATER DETAILS...I WOULD LIKE
TO SEE SOME RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY...ALONG WITH SOME TRENDS EITHER
WEST OR EAST IN THE GUIDANCE. FOR NOW...WL JUST MENTION CHC POPS
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY FOR SNOW.

 

[Greg]

Albany:

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LARGE MODEL AND ENSEMBLE SPREADS CONTINUES AND ONLY INCREASES
AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK. ONE THING IS CLEAR...THE COLD WEATHER
WILL CONTINUE WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES PERSISTING.

THE MODELS NOT TRENDING TOWARD A CLEAR SOLUTION FOR THE STORM THAT`S
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST SATURDAY NIGHT THEN HEAD
NORTHWARD. THE 00Z ECMWF HAS TRENDED MUCH FARTHER WEST AND CLOSER TO
THE COAST BY ABOUT 250 MILES FROM THE 12Z RUN. THIS SOLUTION IS SEEN
AS AN OUTLIER AT THIS TIME. THIS IS CONCERNING SINCE THE ECMWF
USUALLY HANDLES THE THIS TIME RANGE AND HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN
BETTER. THE GFS...GFSENSEMBES AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN KEEP THE STORM
FARTHER TO THE EAST AND OFFSHORE. THIS SOLUTION HAS BEEN FAVORED.
WITH SUCH HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST...HAVE MAINTAINED CHANCE
POPS FOR SNOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
MORNING WITH HIGHER POPS ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA...WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.

Taunton:

SUN AND MON...
UNFORTUNATELY MODEL RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY REMAINS POOR HOWEVER
THERE IS A BIT MORE CLUSTERING OF AN OFFSHORE TRACK PER THE 00Z
GFS/GEFS/UKMET AND CANADIAN GGEM. ALTHOUGH THE NEW 00Z ECMWF HAS
MADE A LARGE CHANGE FROM ITS PREVIOUS RUNS WITH NOW A 974 MB LOW
ABOUT 50 MILES ESE OF NANTUCKET 12Z MON! THE ECMWF THEN HAS THIS LOW
BECOMING OCCLUDED AND VERTICALLY STACKED OVER CAPE COD LATER MON/MON
NIGHT BEFORE MOVING OUT TO SEA. AS YOU CAN IMAGINE THE ECMWF
GENERATES HEAVY PRECIP WITH OVER 2 INCHES OF LIQUID QPF ACROSS
SOUTHEAST MA DURING THIS TIME. THUS POTENTIAL FOR A MAJOR SNOWSTORM
/POTENTIAL PTYPE ISSUES CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS/ ALONG WITH VERY
STRONG WINDS. ALTHOUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE
SUPPORTS AN OFFSHORE TRACK WITH JUST A GLANCING BLOW FOR THE REGION.
THUS A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST CONTINUES.

GIVEN THE TIME RANGE HERE /3.5-4 DAYS AWAY/ AND THE LARGE RUN TO RUN
DIFFERENCES AMONG THE MODELS ESPECIALLY THE GFS...THINK ITS PRUDENT
TO KEEP THE DOOR OPEN FOR ONE OF THREE SCENARIOS...1)AN OFFSHORE
TRACK PER 00Z MODEL CONSENSUS...2)THE MORE ROBUST ECMWF
SOLUTION...3)AND SOMETHING IN BETWEEN THE 00Z ECMWF AND MODEL
CONSENSUS.

DON/T WANT TO COMPLETELY DISCOUNT THE 00Z ECMWF GIVEN ITS SUPERIOR
VERIFICATION AND THE FACT THAT THE SYNOPTIC SCALE FLOW IS SOMEWHAT
FAVORABLE FOR EAST COAST CYCLOGENESIS GIVEN RETROGRADING UPPER AIR
PATTEN SUPPORTING A STORM TRACK CLOSER TO THE COAST. IN ADDITION THE
MORE AMPLIFIED SCENARIO BY THE ECMWF IS PLAUSIBLE AS THE SHORTWAVE
AND DEVELOPING SFC LOW ENCOUNTER AN UNSTABLE MARINE ENVIRONMENT WITH
INCREASED BAROCLINICITY FROM THE CURRENT STRONG COLD ADVECTION FLOW
OVER RELATIVELY WARM OCEAN WATERS. NEVERTHELESS WILL JUST HAVE TO BE
PATIENT AND WAIT FOR MODELS TO BEGIN CONVERGING ON A SOLUTION BEFORE
WE CAN PROVIDE SPECIFICS REGARDING SNOWFALL AMOUNTS AND TIMING.

Go European!

 

[billski]

looking a bit more positive now......

So we gonna start a betting pool? :grin:

 

[Glenn]

Euro FTW!

Sounds like this will be one of those storms where we won't know until the very late model runs on Saturday evening...or early Sunday AM.

 

[Madroch]

Some of the 12z models show some promise for SNE-ESNE,...american models coming back west, latest GEM would be a monster...Euro up next... I cannot ski, so it will join the trend.

 

[billski]

Euro FTW!

Sounds like this will be one of those storms where we won't know until the very late model runs on Saturday evening...or early Sunday AM.

Like a wino stumbling down the sidewalk.... :razz:

 

[WinnChill]

Like a wino stumbling down the sidewalk.... :razz:

Watching the models on this storm can EASILY drive a person to drink.

 

[billski]

Watching the models on this storm can EASILY drive a person to drink.

then this "storm" has been named! WINO :dunce: :razz::razz::razz:

 

[Greg]

Euro FTW!

Sounds like this will be one of those storms where we won't know until the very late model runs on Saturday evening...or early Sunday AM.

You know when we'll know? Monday afternoon... :razz:

Watching the models on this storm can EASILY drive a person to drink.

Some of us don't need no stinkin' weather models for that! :beer:

 

[hammer]

Watching the models on this storm can EASILY drive a person to drink.

Sounds like typical New England weather forecasting to me...:wink:

Main thing I'm going to do is plan for working from home on Monday...IF this happens then commuting will be a real challenge. Could be a powder day at Nashoba...:idea:

 

[WinnChill]

We may have a storm on our hands folks! Sunday night into Monday are looking more interesting. Not going to jump on board just yet but the latest model runs are looking better. Stay tuned.

Oh yeah and :beer:

 

[billski]

We may have a storm on our hands folks! Sunday night into Monday are looking more interesting. Not going to jump on board just yet but the latest model runs are looking better. Stay tuned.

Oh yeah and :beer:

"Interesting" is my favorite word! Winn, please turn your screen about 30 degrees so the models point towards the Whites and Greens!!!

 

[WinnChill]

"Interesting" is my favorite word! Winn, please turn your screen about 30 degrees so the models point towards the Whites and Greens!!!

I'm leaning in my chair

 

[Glenn]

You know when we'll know? Monday afternoon... :razz:

Ain't that the truth!

 

[Madroch]

You know when we'll know? Monday afternoon... :razz:



Some of us don't need no stinkin' weather models for that! :beer:

Maybe Tuesday morning even.... :-o
True... just my daughter's birthday party scheduling....