12/19 - 12/20 Storm Discussion Thread

[drjeff]

We may have a storm on our hands folks! Sunday night into Monday are looking more interesting. Not going to jump on board just yet but the latest model runs are looking better. Stay tuned.

Oh yeah and :beer:

Now we wait and see if this one will be like things were about this time last week. Where there was 1 set of runs where all the models suddenly shifted towards the favorable and then 12 hours later, BOOM back to reality

The players in this event right now are the pool of cold air which is currently just a bit SE of Alaska and a low that is in Arizona right now. Now all that's left to figure out is in the 72 hours or so, is how each of those parts will travel about 3000 miles each and then meet up! Simple stuff! :lol: :beer:

 

[WinnChill]

Now we wait and see if this one will be like things were about this time last week. Where there was 1 set of runs where all the models suddenly shifted towards the favorable and then 12 hours later, BOOM back to reality

The players in this event right now are the pool of cold air which is currently just a bit SE of Alaska and a low that is in Arizona right now. Now all that's left to figure out is in the 72 hours or so, is how each of those parts will travel about 3000 miles each and then meet up! Simple stuff! :lol: :beer:

Oh I know! This latest shift was almost too good--like red meat tossed into the lion's den!

 

[Glenn]

If Jeff isn't skiing this weekend, the favorability just went up a notch for snow.

No disrespect to Jeff...that's just how these things happen. :lol:

 

[billski]

The period of concern for New England is from Sunday night into Monday for what could turn out to be a full-blown nor'easter with the possibility of a foot of snow.

 

[UVSHTSTRM]

Not sure where accuweather stands in terms of accuracy, but right now they are calling for a doozy for Maine and eastern, NH. I took a peak at where my parents live in Maine and they are calling for 20 inches at this time (according to accuweather). Not sure if this will pan out as they have flip flopped so much. It's just redonkulous to take anything the weather experts say more than 24 hours prior as a pure crapshoot. I guess we will wait and see.

 

[Greg]

The period of concern for New England is from Sunday night into Monday for what could turn out to be a full-blown nor'easter with the possibility of a foot of snow.

Local met was saying the timing for us is early. With the bulk of it late morning Sunday and into the night.

 

[drjeff]

Not sure where accuweather stands in terms of accuracy, but right now they are calling for a doozy for Maine and eastern, NH. I took a peak at where my parents live in Maine and they are calling for 20 inches at this time (according to accuweather). Not sure if this will pan out as they have flip flopped so much. It's just redonkulous to take anything the weather experts say more than 24 hours prior as a pure crapshoot. I guess we will wait and see.

There's 2 things to watch with this storm as it gets closer and the possibility of a storm that gets measured in feet vs. one that gets measured in inches.

1) the classic benchmark for a New Enlgand Nor'easter is how close/far the low tracks to 40 degrees N/70 degrees West (think about 50 miles off the SE corner of Nantucket) Right now the "big snow models" have the low tracking pretty close to that point, the smaller snow models have the low going say 150 miles or so East of that point. So where it tracks in relation to that point will effect if the HEAVY bands of snow occur over land or out over the ocean.

2) The models are suggesting that once the storm gets into the Gulf of Maine that it wants to hook back to the West a bit, thus bringing the heavy bands potentially into Maine/Eastern NH. How much the storm hooks back to the West (if at all) will determine where those heavy bands end up.

Yesterday at this time, the models weere suggesting that the storm track would be close to that 40/70 mark. Since yesterday evening, the consensus of most models is that the storm looks to be tracking East of 40/70 by 50 to 100 miles. Still have to remember though that the low itself that will be the storm this morning is just about at the New Mexico/Texas border and still has to visit say Dallas, New Orleans and swing by Jacksonville, FL before starting its trak up the coast, and as such there's almost certainly going to be some fluctuation in the models throghout the next 36-48 hours before this storm starts heading into the Northeast late Sunday

 

[WinnChill]

12Z NAM sucks

 

[lerops]

Should people considering Vermont next week start considering NH then?

 

[SKIQUATTRO]

looks like its busting...not in a good way...

 

[wa-loaf]

I'm starting to see Monday being a sick day ...

 

[wa-loaf]

looks like its busting...not in a good way...

I'm starting to see Monday being a sick day ...

Doh!

 

[Greg]

I love how people change their attitude each model run. We'll know on Sunday...

 

[hammer]

I love how people change their attitude each model run. We'll know on Sunday...

+1

In any case, at least it should stay cold and there will be no NCP...and in the flatlands I still have hope for a white Christmas.

 

[WinnChill]

Should people considering Vermont next week start considering NH then?

Not necessarily--northern VT resorts picked up 1-2 feet over the past several days. If this storm wiffs, it won't really benefit anyone very much.

 

[gmcunni]

i'm just hoping mother nature takes a big dump on us

 

[drjeff]

12Z NAM sucks

Doh! Looks like the storm is trying to make a b-line for the Azores in that one! :smash:

 

[wa-loaf]

I'm still plotting an escape to Cannon on Monday unless things really go bust.

 

[WinnChill]

Doh! Looks like the storm is trying to make a b-line for the Azores in that one! :smash:

GFS toouke:

The backlash (Norlun) for Tues has been looking interesting for a while though.

 

[drjeff]

GFS toouke:

The backlash (Norlun) for Tues has been looking interesting for a while though.

Yup. Looks like the upper level winds into the middle of next week are going to try and give the Northeast a nice trough settling in too. Who knows, maybe Santa will have some fresh powder to land his sled in next weekend