March 13th (Don't Crucify me!)

[billski]

The Canadian model has generally kicked the Euro's ass this winter, so I'd probably go with that were I a betting man. Here's what it shows for the storm (I didn't bother running the panels before/after these, but you can add another inch or two more snow)


Add it all up, includind the pre/post flullies etc... and you're probably looking at 8" to 10" for most of ski country.

Have you heard any word on the moisture content up and down the spine?
I'm not if Relative Humidity factors into this.

 

[flightschool]

Accu just put up map. I think its on the low side for northern ski country. but loon looking like 12-18!

 

[billski]

Accu just put up map. I think its on the low side for northern ski country. but loon looking like 12-18!

Not necessarily. Those are valley forecasts.

 

[wa-loaf]

Bent wheel folks so limping around on the spare (full size, thanks VW!) until Friday. My counterpart at work is on vacation all week, so I won't be able to get away until the weekend. Enjoy the freshies!

 

[billski]

Bent wheel folks so limping around on the spare (full size, thanks VW!) until Friday. My counterpart at work is on vacation all week, so I won't be able to get away until the weekend. Enjoy the freshies!

I'm sure there are other cars in the parking lot with similar size wheel, no? Bummer man...

 

[BenedictGomez]

12z GFS snow map hot off the presses.

Seems a bit snowptimistic if you ask me.

 

[billski]

 

[billski]

12z GFS snow map hot off the presses.

Seems a bit snowptimistic if you ask me.

Another wobbly. Won't know until it's breathing down our necks.

 

[BenedictGomez]

Have you heard any word on the moisture content up and down the spine?
I'm not if Relative Humidity factors into this.

It looks plenty wet. The problem is both the 12z NAM and 12zGFS came in warmer, which is why that map looks like the Cats and Berks get so little snow, it's because it's now predicting rain there. Not a good trend for s.VT if that R/S line keeps moving north, but I imagine c.VT and n.VT will be fine. Hopefully the American models are just being total crap as per usual.

 

[flightschool]

I think rayno thinks it will track below the NAM a bit. Also, they are expecting backend snow for some of the areas that start as rain, but that might not happen. Better off going north, drive another 2 hours, guarantee good times.

 

[moguler6]

Josh Fox tweet!

"20-30 INCHER ON THE WAY !!!"

 

[catsup948]

It's going to be a mess around here. Snow/sleet/rain/snow followed by freezing cold and windy Thursday.

Sent from my SCH-I545 using Tapatalk

 

[BenedictGomez]

Here's the closest (i.e. "worst") the 12z Canadian (much better than the GFS) gets with the R/S line.

It only gets better from there as the cold air invades from NW to SE. But keep in mind, if you're just above that R/S line, you're dancing.

 

[Boston Bulldog]

Wtf... This thing might cut over ALB if it gets any more amped...

 

[from_the_NEK]

Wtf... This thing might cut over ALB if it gets any more amped...

Like I said earlier...

My (totally non-scientific, anti-jinxing, curmudgeon) predictions:...

Scenario 2: Storm is so strong it becomes a cutter and tracks through Ottawa, dumping 3” of hot rain on New England.
Probability=40%

 

[BenedictGomez]

Wtf... This thing might cut over ALB if it gets any more amped...

Some folks are already lifting the R/S line based on model data (like the exhibit below).

I think it's okay though. With the cold air spilling down, I dont see how the R/S-line could advance any further north. The Catskills may or may not get screwed, but all north of there should be okay I think. Just gotta hope it doesnt keep hopping north or s.VT could get rain before snow.

 

[Boston Bulldog]

Some folks are already lifting the R/S line based on model data (like the exhibit below).

I think it's okay though. With the cold air spilling down, I dont see how the R/S-line could advance any further north. The Catskills may or may not get screwed, but all north of there should be okay I think. Just gotta hope it doesnt keep hopping north or s.VT could get rain before snow.

Well the EURO quelled my fears lol. I've been riding the EURO all the way with this storm, so why trust the GFS now.

 

[Boston Bulldog]

BTW I think Stowe and NVT are still safe... for now. The GFS, the warmest solution still crushes that area and the EURO says that SVT will be blue bombed as well. Southern and Central ski areas walks a fine line with this, but NNE should be fine. A cutter is very unlikely, though if this trend continues, it could happen. Nail-biting finish, but I'd rather have this monster rather than a strung out POS storm that skims south of the area.

EURO is a monster hit for Sunapee/Mt Snow on north. Crotched lies right on the battlefield.

 

[JDMRoma]

Some folks are already lifting the R/S line based on model data (like the exhibit below).

I think it's okay though. With the cold air spilling down, I dont see how the R/S-line could advance any further north. The Catskills may or may not get screwed, but all north of there should be okay I think. Just gotta hope it doesnt keep hopping north or s.VT could get rain before snow.

Looks like Northern NH finally Gets a good hit…….Im more than ready for it !!

 

[4aprice]

All I can say is "I'm Free, I'm Free". Race season is over and no more bondage to the Pocono's for the weekends. (though that wasn't bad for Jan and Feb this year). I will go where the snow goes.

JB says the cold ain't going anywhere for a while.

Alex

Lake Hopatcong, NJ