March 13th (Don't Crucify me!)

[jrmagic]

flight,thats a good call, and sr always has a good base. magic is always awesome after a dump, but there might not be too much underneath

Magic like most places in NE has plenty of hard base on trail and in the woods. With decent accumulations it will be very good and very empty.

 

[billski]

burkie should be happy!

 

[billski]

Magic like most places in NE has plenty of hard base on trail and in the woods. With decent accumulations it will be very good and very empty.

+1

 

[billski]

Can he be anymore obvious about being Jay's paid cheerleader.

I don't care if he's pushing poppies or religious tracts. I can overlook that if snow is in the future. Hey, everyone's gotta make a buck comrade!

 

[flightschool]

flight,thats a good call, and sr always has a good base. magic is always awesome after a dump, but there might not be too much underneath

I'm more concerned about rain than other people here. I think southern NH and VT could see a decent amount of rain. I don't know why, call it a feeling, but models look north to me. No one going to know for sure until Tuesday night. I just hope the wind isn't that horrible thursday.

 

[BenedictGomez]

Camelback strikes again!

They're absolutely UNBELIEVABLE with their propaganda. Yeah, lets brag about a coating to 3 inch forecast and nevermind the fact the storm is forecast to be primarily a drenching rain for the Poconos.

Again, WORST ski area in the east in terms of propaganda and lying to the consumer.

 

[4aprice]

Anyone been to Attitash lately? Do they have a decent base? .

Was at Attitash this past weekend. I would say they have a decent base. Hit several tree runs on Bear Peak and there are some bones but nothing too terrible and a decent snow would only make it better. The temp warmed enough Saturday to make them skiable but dropped again Sunday and they were less enjoyable.

Alex

Lake Hopatcong, NJ

 

[abc]

With most of the "big storms" all WAY over-predicted on snow amount, call me a skeptic.

I have the "benefit" of not being able to take any day off this week but has all of next week at my disposal. So my guess is the amount will be a lot less as in the past.

I have no insight on the snow/rain line. I only hope it's south of Stowe/Sugarbush, because that's where I'm heading to...

 

[BenedictGomez]

Thought I'd run the UKMET for the hell of it.

It's like the red-headed stepchild of models and rarely gets a mention, but it shows a big hit too in the below 2 panels.

Rain/Snow line on the first panel is bizarrely almost a perfect straight line on the VT/MA border. Rain/Snow line on the second panel is irrelevant, everyone is cold enough by then for all snow.

 

[yeggous]

Was at Attitash this past weekend. I would say they have a decent base. Hit several tree runs on Bear Peak and there are some bones but nothing too terrible and a decent snow would only make it better. The temp warmed enough Saturday to make them skiable but dropped again Sunday and they were less enjoyable.

Alex

Lake Hopatcong, NJ

The White Mountains on the North Conway side have a great base. A foot of fresh will have them in amazing shape.


Sent from my iPhone using AlpineZone mobile app

 

[flightschool]

Thought I'd run the UKMET for the hell of it.

It's like the red-headed stepchild of models and rarely gets a mention, but it shows a big hit too in the below 2 panels.

Rain/Snow line on the first panel is bizarrely almost a perfect straight line on the VT/MA border. Rain/Snow line on the second panel is irrelevant, everyone is cold enough by then for all snow.

Any cold support we can get is great, thanks for the post

 

[Wavewheeler]

As much as I'd love to head further north I just can't afford it. So how bad will it be for the Catskills (Hunter). They are saying any rain SHOULD turn to snow and be about 7" in total accumulations. Maybe something will happen for early next week so what's the chance of good skiing midweek (March 19-20) next week? I am bringing my daughter on this trip, who is more of an intermediate skier, and we actually like to go a few days after a storm so they can groom the trails a bit.

Looks like New England is finally getting the storm they deserve!

 

[BenedictGomez]

As much as I'd love to head further north I just can't afford it. So how bad will it be for the Catskills (Hunter). They are saying any rain SHOULD turn to snow and be about 7" in total accumulations.

Impossible to say. The northern/warmer trend is not a good sign. Just 3 days ago the Rain/Snow line was Central Jersey, now it's a few miles into Vermont. That's not a 25 or 40 mile shift, that's about a 175 mile shift.

That said, the mountain elevation should help, as should their western proximity since the cold air arrives from the northwest. So it's probably a timing thing more than anything else. I cant imagine 7" of wet snow on top of rain will be that bad though. Maybe a bit crusty?

But I have to believe that this northern Rain/Snow line shift HAS to stop, because that air coming out of Canada should act like the US Cavalry arriving. They say never buck the trend, but it wouldnt surprise me if that Rain/Snow line retreats a bit from the Vermont state line in the next few runs. It will be interesting to watch.

 

[billski]

We've had so many storms over the decade where I-90 in Mass. was the defacto rain/snow line, that I'm inclined to think that way now. NWS is looking at the line being at the top of Mass., and as BG says, the uncertainty factor remains high. If it's like any other storm, we won't know until the fat lady dances. Hoping for a low-moisture precip, I will be at 44.533799, -72.791538

 

[lerops]

This one seems to be really tricky. On Saturday, more precipitation seems to be in the works, but R/S line seems to be further north. Acc to NOAA, Even K would get some rain on Sat, while they do great on Wed/Th. I'd hate this to be a "if you got it fresh on Th/Fr, you are good; otherwise, you're screwed" event.

 

[flightschool]

We've had so many storms over the decade where I-90 in Mass. was the defacto rain/snow line, that I'm inclined to think that way now. NWS is looking at the line being at the top of Mass., and as BG says, the uncertainty factor remains high. If it's like any other storm, we won't know until the fat lady dances. Hoping for a low-moisture precip, I will be at 44.533799, -72.791538

prob the best place to ski this, head to jay after for weekend?

 

[billski]

. Acc to NOAA, Even K would get some rain on Sat,

But their narrative was quick to say the mountains would be a much greater accumulation.

 

[lerops]

Thanks, so do you think that the places that luck out with th emid-week storm will be fine over the weekend? That'd be good news to me.

 

[Wavewheeler]

I guess it's a wait and see situation. No way can I ski any sooner than a week after this storm and a lot can happen in a week. If I was looking to catch the fresh powder on Friday and the weekend I'd be planning a trip up to Northern New England. The Dacks may be a good bet too.

 

[billski]

000
FXUS61 KBOX 110107
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
905 PM EDT MON MAR 10 2014

WED/WED NIGHT...

GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT THAT PRECIP OVERSPREADS THE REGION FROM WEST TO
EAST...POSSIBLY HOLDING OFF UNTIL EARLY AFTERNOON OVER SOUTHEAST MA.

...GUIDANCE SUGGEST PRECIP MAY BEGIN AS SNOW SOMEWHERE ALONG
AND NORTH OF THE MASS PIKE AND INTO SOUTHERN NH...THEN THE RAIN-SNOW
LINE LIFTING NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN OR CENTRAL NH BEFORE CRASHING
SOUTHWARD WED NIGHT

...RAIN-SNOW LIKELY TO CRASH SOUTHEAST ALL THE WAY TO THE COAST. THEN ISSUE BECOMES HOW MUCH [moisture] IS LEFT ONCE COLD AIR ARRIVES.

..SO LOW CONFIDENCE ON HOW MUCH SNOW WILL
FALL ON THE BACKSIDE. BASED ON THE CURRENT STORM TRACK MOST
CONFIDENCE OF 6"+ ACROSS NORTHWEST INTO SOUTHWEST NH. THAT IS A
COMBINATION OF SNOW ON THE FRONT END WED...MIXED PRECIP WED EVENING
THEN BACK TO SNOW OVERNIGHT WED NIGHT INTO EARLY THU. THUS WINTER
STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THIS AREA.

LESS SNOW SOUTHWARD BUT A RISK OF A WINTRY MIX FOR A TIME WED FROM
NORTHERN CT-RI TO THE MASS PIKE FOLLOWED BY A PERIOD OF WRAP AROUND
SNOW WED NIGHT INTO THU AM. ELSEWHERE ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL-
SOUTHERN RI AND SOUTHEAST MA LITTLE IF ANY SNOWFALL EXPECTED ON THE
FRONT END WED WITH PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN MORE OF A CONCERN.

WED NIGHT COULD BE SOME CONCERN REGARDING A FLASH FREEZE