The Future of the Ski Industry

[Highway Star]

I had an interesting conversation with a person who runs a golf course (not in my area). The person said that the golf course is really worried. Memberships are way down from what they were 20 or 30 years ago, and the number of day-rate players has significantly declined.

The theory is this: A) Golf and tennis are dying sports; and
B) Golf is no longer consistent with people's lifestyle. It takes 4-5 hours to play 18 holes of golf on this course. The average family has two wage earners, and the children have sports and other activities (piano lessons, etc.) almost every day of the week. The parents need to run errands on the weekend such as grocery shopping. The time just isn't there.

I couldn't help but think about skiing when I heard this story. IMHO, skiing is just too expensive for the average family to dabble in. It's also a massive time commitment. There are fewer and fewer feeder hills to develop a new client base.

While there will always be families with the resources and interest to commit to skiing, are other families going to continue to ski as an occasional recreational activity? I've never felt that, for a beginner, skiing is that fun. It doesn't really start to become enjoyable until the intermediate level. If a family only makes a once-a-year ski trip, are their skills really developing enough to make skiing that enjoyable?

On the other hand, the economy is getting better and the ski industry has survived arguably the biggest economic challenge in the post-war era. That suggests that the industry is indeed durable. But this might be a product of consolidation rather than overall durability. And taxes and fuel costs aren't getting cheaper. And unlike golf, skiing cannot rely on the growing number of empty-nesters for its client base.

I don't think that there is doom and gloom, but on the other hand I am concerned that we may not have seen the last of ski area closures in our region.

If I had to guess, the biggest threat to ski areas could be the build out of indoor recreational facilities. Ten years ago I had never heard of a family with children who played baseball all year round. That is now quite common in southern New England. If these kids don't play in the winter leagues they get left behind. And the typical overly-competitive parent can't handle that thought. The same is true for soccer, hockey, etc. If more and more of these indoor centers are constructed, more and more families are going to have a local option for winter recreational activity. That can't be good for the ski areas.

Seriously, I hope you're not some sort of analyst.

 

[mbedle]

Thanks for posting Highwaystar - very interesting. Actually, the other data on the website is pretty insightful.

 

[BenedictGomez]

Seriously, I hope you're not some sort of analyst.

I'm not sure I understand your point, his post was about the FUTURE of skiing, not the current environment.

An "analyst" doesn't use AAPL's current earnings as the sole means to derive future earnings.

 

[Highway Star]

I'm not sure I understand your point, his post was about the FUTURE of skiing, not the current environment.

An "analyst" doesn't use AAPL's current earnings as the sole means to derive future earnings.

Skier visits and revenues have been growing for 30+ years. Are you saying that's going to change?

 

[VTKilarney]

Seriously, I hope you're not some sort of analyst.

Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

Go back into your hole, asswipe.

 

[dlague]

Seriously, I hope you're not some sort of analyst.

Hopefully you aren't either!

How many skiers/snowboarders in the US? Around 16 M or so plus or minus a million each year. Now take a look at that chart the range is between 51 million - 58 million skier visits. Still following? the range can be changed by half of the skiers skiing 1 day less so technically that chart is flat!

However look at the past three years in terms of the number of snow sport participants - looks like decline in each category!




The point is the largest adult segment (baby boomers) is getting older and their snow sport numbers are dropping quickly. It is also a fact that our youth that skied with their families are not returning to the sport. If the kids of today do not translate into the same percentages (25-44) as they get older then the future kid numbers will drop as well.



Ski areas will close, less snow will be made due to warmer temps, seasons will be shorter due to GW and then the numbers will drop like crazy! Was not thinking about it this way!

 

[VTKilarney]

He also failed to take into account that the population of the United States has grown significantly, yet skier visits have not kept pace.

In any event, he's an idiot: http://www.mrablog.com/explaining-ski-industry-demographics/

He just wanted to be confrontational, rather than adding something substantive to the conversation. But we knew that's how he rolls.

 

[dlague]

I would like to get back into tennis.

I have too many things i like to do, haha.

I hear you on the too many things I like to do - when summer is here! Winter forget about it - very focused!

I used to play tennis on the high school team and in college for a year. Loved the sport and would like to play it more but have no one to play it with. Our family goes out an tries it a few times per summer - this year zero!

 

[BenedictGomez]

Skier visits and revenues have been growing for 30+ years. Are you saying that's going to change?

Yes.

Ski areas will close, less snow will be made due to warmer temps, seasons will be shorter due to GW and then the numbers will drop like crazy!

There has been no Global Warming for almost 20 years now, despite CO2 increases that are significantly greater than the pro man-made Global Warming scientists hypothesized.

And even if they're correct and man-made Global Warming is 100% real and eventually "starts happening again", the incremental difference to net snowfall per year wont be something that you, your children, your children's children, or maybe even your children's children's children have to worry about. But that's a wee-bit beyond the scope of industry financial planning, depsite the current shark-hopping hysteria.

 

[dlague]

He also failed to take into account that the population of the United States has grown significantly, yet skier visits have not kept pace.

In any event, he's an idiot: http://www.mrablog.com/explaining-ski-industry-demographics/

He just wanted to be confrontational, rather than adding something substantive to the conversation. But we knew that's how he rolls.

Thanks - that article make the point - I was trying to make!

 

[dlague]

Yes.



There has been no Global Warming for almost 20 years now, despite CO2 increases that are significantly greater than the pro man-made Global Warming scientists hypothesized.

And even if they're correct and man-made Global Warming is 100% real and eventually "starts happening again", the incremental difference to net snowfall per year wont be something that you, your children, your children's children, or maybe even your children's children's children have to worry about. But that's a wee-bit beyond the scope of industry financial planning, depsite the current shark-hopping hysteria.

Was not serious on that last line! -

 

[Highway Star]

Somebody comes along every year and claims that skiing is dying. We call those people Morons.

 

[dlague]

Skier visits and revenues have been growing for 30+ years. Are you saying that's going to change?

Revenues up with fewer snow sports participants! That trend will continue.

 

[BenedictGomez]

Was not serious on that last line!

Gotcha. I didn't realize it because there ARE plenty of uninformed people who genuinely believe that skiing will be seriously impaired by Global Warming in the next decade or two. Their hysteria almost defies belief.

Revenues up with fewer snow sports participants! That trend will continue.

Likely so. Open up the wallets.

 

[VTKilarney]

Somebody comes along every year and claims that skiing is dying. We call those people Morons.

Tell me where in my post I said that skiing is dying. People who can't read are morons. By the way, the word "moron" is not capitalized. Apparently you do not know the difference between "moron" and "Mormon".

In any event, way to refute the actual data you were provided with... well... nothing.

Were you seriously trying to argue with my argument that the construction of indoor recreational facilities in urban areas will put pressure on the ski industry? Are you so dense that you are seriously challenging this concept? Or are you merely a troll?

 

[Highway Star]

He also failed to take into account that the population of the United States has grown significantly, yet skier visits have not kept pace.

In any event, he's an idiot: http://www.mrablog.com/explaining-ski-industry-demographics/

He just wanted to be confrontational, rather than adding something substantive to the conversation. But we knew that's how he rolls.

Look, I'm sorry to say this, but I have no idea why you're attempting to argue with me. You're an idiot. A large percentage of what you post is pointless, dull, obvious, or just plain stupid. Seriously, get off the internet before you give yourself a stroke.

Oh, and you're an incorrect idiot, too - skier visit growth is matching or exceeding population growth:

(I should note that the number of people who supposedly ski is not really important, at all. In fact, you're sometimes better off having a core group of dedicated participants, which indicates it is not a fad sport)

 

[Highway Star]

There's also no lack of young and middle aged people:

http://sports.espn.go.com/action/snowboarding/news/story?id=6670684

 

[VTKilarney]

Let's make it simple so you can understand it.

Skier visits in 1978/1979 were roughly 50 million.
Skier visits in 2013/2014 were roughly 57 million - which is an increase of 14%.

The United States population in 1978 was 222 million.
The United States population in 2012 was 314 million - which is an increase of 41%.

(I'll pause for a few minutes so you can wrap your head around this....)

Get it?

 

[VTKilarney]

There's also no lack of young and middle aged people:

http://sports.espn.go.com/action/snowboarding/news/story?id=6670684

Thank you for backing up my point. This chart shows that skier ages do not reflect the age of the general population in that skiers tend to stop skiing as they get older.

With a population of baby boomers that is aging, well... can you figure it out?

 

[Highway Star]

Let's make it simple so you can understand it.

Skier visits in 1978 were roughly 50 million.
Skier visits in 2012 were roughly 58 million - which is an increase of 16%.

The United States population in 1978 was 222 million.
The United States population in 2012 was 314 million - which is an increase of 41%.

(I'll pause for a few minutes so you can wrap your head around this....)

Get it?

Oh. My. God.

You are such a epic moron.

Please, remember to keep breathing here, nose (not just mouth). Wouldn't want you to pass out on your keyboard......though it might improve the quality of your posts.