The Future of the Ski Industry

[BenedictGomez]

I should note that the number of people who supposedly ski is not really important, at all. In fact, you're sometimes better off having a core group of dedicated participants, which indicates it is not a fad sport

Ski equipment manufacturers, ski clothing manufacturers, hotel & motel & Inn operators, restauranteurs, and a host of other industries deriving income off of numerical "warm bodies", and which comprise the overall health of the ski industry ex-mountain ops, would likely disagree.

 

[VTKilarney]

You are such a epic moron.

Then I guess the trade analysts are too. I'm happy to be a part of that club.

 

[Highway Star]

Then I guess the trade analysts are too. I'm happy to be a part of that club.

I'm guessing you might have graduated high school, just barely. Ever take a college level statistics or even a math course? Nothing fancy, just first year calc, etc? No? Ever have to graph something or do math for a job? No?

I'm not suprised.

 

[Highway Star]

Ski equipment manufacturers, ski clothing manufacturers, hotel & motel & Inn operators, restauranteurs, and a host of other industries deriving income off of numerical "warm bodies", and which comprise the overall health of the ski industry ex-mountain ops, would likely disagree.

Then why are revenues up also?

 

[VTKilarney]

Argument from authority logical fallacy. In any event, I'm willing to bet that whatever degree you have mine matches or exceeds it.

 

[VTKilarney]

Then why are revenues up also?

This is where you are a Mormon... err.. moron. When you look at growth, there are two ways to grow your business; a) grow your customer base; b) grow the amount each customer spends.

The latter is much more finite than the former. But you are focusing solely on the latter all the while insisting that we don't look at the man behind the curtain. You can also account for a portion of the increase in revenues due to inflation alone.

 

[Highway Star]

Argument from authority logical fallacy. In any event, I'm willing to bet that whatever degree you have mine matches or exceeds it.

This is where you are a Mormon... err.. moron. When you look at growth, there are two ways to grow your business; a) grow your customer base; b) grow the amount each customer spends.

The latter is much more finite than the former. But you are focusing solely on the latter all the while insisting that we don't look at the man behind the curtain. You can also account for a portion of the increase in revenues due to inflation alone.

 

[BenedictGomez]

Then why are revenues up also?

Because the price increases are exceeding net growth.

EDIT:

Was this a trick question or was it as incredibly obvious as it seems?

 

[VTKilarney]

Then why are revenues up also?

Yeah, because costs should be ignored. Revenues are all that matters. Tell that to this little company: http://www.marketwatch.com/story/vail-resorts-profit-falls-21-on-higher-costs-2014-03-12-164854923

 

[skiNEwhere]

Let's make it simple so you can understand it.

Skier visits in 1978 were roughly 50 million.
Skier visits in 2012 were roughly 58 million - which is an increase of 16%.

The United States population in 1978 was 222 million.
The United States population in 2012 was 314 million - which is an increase of 41%.

(I'll pause for a few minutes so you can wrap your head around this....)

Get it?

But it's not that simple

Correlation does not necessarily imply causation. This is a logical fallacy, and can't be proven or disproven with 2 data points.

If you really want to PROVE skiing is dying, you need to look at other stuff like income per capita, increase of ski costs vs rate of inflation, and the consumer price index. For example:

Minimum wage in 1978, $2.65. Average cost of a car 4,500. Hours required to save up for car - 1698 (42 weeks)
Minimum wage in 2013, $7.25. Average cost of a car 31,000. Hours required to save up for car - 4275 (106 weeks)

That's a 151% increase for the same type of product over 35 years.

Skiing falls under that category of disposable income. If you want to see if the numbers are really going down, you need to compare it against other disposable income industries, or the disposable income industry itself.

Long story short, it's not as cut and try as finding a correlation between 2 data points. I don't care which way this argument goes, but that needs to be said. And unless anyone is writing up their dissertation for a doctoral degree, the stuff said here so far isn't even scratching the surface.

 

[VTKilarney]

Hah! If you think that I have a degree in philosophy, you are quite off the mark.

 

[BenedictGomez]

That's awesome. Copied and saved.

 

[BenedictGomez]

If you really want to PROVE skiing is dying,

I could be wrong, but I dont think anyone is suggesting that. The forward demographic trends are, however, somewhat worrisome.

Minimum wage in 1978, $2.65. Average cost of a car 4,500. Hours required to save up for car - 1698 (42 weeks)
Minimum wage in 2013, $7.25. Average cost of a car 31,000. Hours required to save up for car - 4275 (106 weeks)

The average person who makes minimum wage doesn't buy a new car. Hell, a large chunk of people in American making "minimum wage" either cant drive yet or are just barely old enough for a drivers license.

There's a BIG misunderstanding regarding minimum wage in this nation which the media doesn't do a good job explaining (I think it's politically motivated), which is that the lion's share of people making minimum wage are UNDER the age of 25. Many are teens or college kids working part-time jobs, who will almost certainly move up the pay-ladder and achieve earnings > min wage.

It is, generally speaking, complete fantasy that there are "millions of Americans struggling to survive on minimum wage". Total.......complete.....fantasy. If you add up all the people in America making the Federal minimum or less, you only have a few million people. That's it. Really.

 

[VTKilarney]

But it's not that simple

Correlation does not necessarily imply causation.

A couple of points:
a) This is an internet forum. Hopefully nobody here has the time to write a dissertation.
b) The overall travel and tourism industry has grown at a much higher rate than the ski industry.
c) The ski area trade associations have identified significant concerns from here on out - mostly centered around the aging baby boomer population and the lackluster ability to attract new people to the sport. I trust that they have thought this through before publishing.
d) Compare skiing to the "disposable income" cruise industry. Let me know how skiing has been doing...

 

[VTKilarney]

I could be wrong, but I dont think anyone is suggesting that. The forward demographic trends are, however, somewhat worrisome.

Spot on. The whole premise was false and originated from Highway Star's inflammatory rhetoric.

 

[bobbutts]

31k gets you a 2015 WRX with 265 HP turbo, torque vector steering, etc etc.

If you just need a car rather than a luxury/sports car you can do ok with the same hrs of minimum wage.
$7.25 x 1698 hrs = $12,310 gets you
Nissan Versa – The Nissan Versa starts at $9.990 MSRP, with a base model that has a 1.6 four cylinder for 107HP, a five speed manual transmission as standard, and 26/34 mpg. For $2000 more, you can upgrade to its 1.8 S trim that comes with more comfortable seating, auxiliary jacks, air conditioning, and antilock brakes. Plusses include impressive cargo room, spacious rear seating, and better than average handling and turning. Cons include stiff acceleration, abysmal safety scores (it rated two out of five stars in side crash and three out of four stars in front crash rating) and stiff acceleration.

Here's your 4k 1978-mobile for comparison

 

[Highway Star]

31k gets you a 2015 WRX with 265 HP turbo, torque vector steering, etc etc.

If you just need a car rather than a luxury/sports car you can do ok with the same hrs of minimum wage.
$7.25 x 1698 hrs = $12,310 gets you
Nissan Versa – The Nissan Versa starts at $9.990 MSRP, with a base model that has a 1.6 four cylinder for 107HP, a five speed manual transmission as standard, and 26/34 mpg. For $2000 more, you can upgrade to its 1.8 S trim that comes with more comfortable seating, auxiliary jacks, air conditioning, and antilock brakes. Plusses include impressive cargo room, spacious rear seating, and better than average handling and turning. Cons include stiff acceleration, abysmal safety scores (it rated two out of five stars in side crash and three out of four stars in front crash rating) and stiff acceleration.

Here's your 4k 1978-mobile for comparison

 

[Highway Star]

 

[Highway Star]

 

[Highway Star]