Tuckerman weather question

[andyzee]

Thanks for the tips. My plan was to do Left Gully unless advised otherwise, with Hillman's possibly as a backup.

When you going?

 

[kcyanks1]

When you going?

Sunday, May 4

 

[kcyanks1]

Forecast changed to being awful; might have to abandon plans :-(

Was so looking forward to my first adventure in Tucks, but don't think that this is the weather I should be doing it in ... and driving 7 hours each way to get to. 2 others have to make the decision along with me, but as much as I really want to go, my gut is that I shouldn't.


http://www.tuckerman.org/avalanche/

Over the past 2 days the weekend forecast has moved from partly sunny to a washout. The forecast has even changed from 9pm last night as the precipitation shield is way ahead of schedule as liquid reached the ground here on Mount Washington at 5am this morning. Drizzle is currently falling at Hermit Lake under overcast skies. Unfortunately it's all downhill from here as this moisture laden system enters the region and intensifies tomorrow. QPF (predicted water amounts) have ramped up in the past 12 hours to 1.4" for the entire event with 0.8" falling tomorrow which currently holds a 90% probability of rain. Not only will this make it unpleasant to be relaxing on your favorite Ravine rock eating a soggy wonderbread sandwich, but will dramatically exacerbate our spring hazards. Crevasses and undermining will become more problematic; however, icefall will once again be the main hazardous threat in the Ravine over the next few days. Two icefall concerns exist today; the long standing large ice that developed through the winter; and the ice that quickly developed during the cold snap this week. This new ice will likely all peel off today and overnight with the ramp up of warm rain. The older larger ice, such as the upper Sluice ice, is sitting unsupported by any ice foundation below it. This is sitting up above Lunch Rocks threatening anything in its path. In addition to this threat fog over the next couple of days will dramatically increase the icefall hazard. Even if you can hear a massive block of ice cleave off you won't be able to see it coming, potentially breaking apart into multiple TVs, loungers, and refrigerator sized pieces in all directions. Fog can often develop rapidly and if this catches you when you're already up in a hazardous location it won't help your situation. Navigation around Mt. Washington will be difficult if fog overtakes the landscape and realize that all "summer trails" are still deeply buried and go through some very hazardous terrain. This scenario occurred yesterday as a school group of 60 planned on hiking up the Tuckerman Ravine trail to the summit. We caught them and explained that trails don't exist at this time of the year; it is full on mountaineering terrain. Play it conservative if on the mountain today and anticipate loosing all visibility from time to time.

 

[andyzee]

Well, like 90% of the wannabees out there say, there's always next year :lol:

 

[GrilledSteezeSandwich]

Was so looking forward to my first adventure in Tucks, but don't think that this is the weather I should be doing it in ... and driving 7 hours each way to get to. 2 others have to make the decision along with me, but as much as I really want to go, my gut is that I shouldn't.


http://www.tuckerman.org/avalanche/

Over the past 2 days the weekend forecast has moved from partly sunny to a washout. The forecast has even changed from 9pm last night as the precipitation shield is way ahead of schedule as liquid reached the ground here on Mount Washington at 5am this morning. Drizzle is currently falling at Hermit Lake under overcast skies. Unfortunately it's all downhill from here as this moisture laden system enters the region and intensifies tomorrow. QPF (predicted water amounts) have ramped up in the past 12 hours to 1.4" for the entire event with 0.8" falling tomorrow which currently holds a 90% probability of rain. Not only will this make it unpleasant to be relaxing on your favorite Ravine rock eating a soggy wonderbread sandwich, but will dramatically exacerbate our spring hazards. Crevasses and undermining will become more problematic; however, icefall will once again be the main hazardous threat in the Ravine over the next few days. Two icefall concerns exist today; the long standing large ice that developed through the winter; and the ice that quickly developed during the cold snap this week. This new ice will likely all peel off today and overnight with the ramp up of warm rain. The older larger ice, such as the upper Sluice ice, is sitting unsupported by any ice foundation below it. This is sitting up above Lunch Rocks threatening anything in its path. In addition to this threat fog over the next couple of days will dramatically increase the icefall hazard. Even if you can hear a massive block of ice cleave off you won't be able to see it coming, potentially breaking apart into multiple TVs, loungers, and refrigerator sized pieces in all directions. Fog can often develop rapidly and if this catches you when you're already up in a hazardous location it won't help your situation. Navigation around Mt. Washington will be difficult if fog overtakes the landscape and realize that all "summer trails" are still deeply buried and go through some very hazardous terrain. This scenario occurred yesterday as a school group of 60 planned on hiking up the Tuckerman Ravine trail to the summit. We caught them and explained that trails don't exist at this time of the year; it is full on mountaineering terrain. Play it conservative if on the mountain today and anticipate loosing all visibility from time to time.

That doesn't sound too bad..

 

[kcyanks1]

Well, like 90% of the wannabees out there say, there's always next year :lol:

Ha, I deserve that, I guess What would you do, seriously? If we drive up there later today as planned and it is bad weather, there's also the option of Sugarbush or even Sugarloaf ... it still will be raining, but perhaps in that weather I'd rather be at a resort than out in the backcountry, especially given that I am not familiar with Tucks. And then if we luck out with the weather, we can still do Tucks. But it's a ton of driving and effort for a maybe (coming from NYC).

 

[JimG.]

Was so looking forward to my first adventure in Tucks, but don't think that this is the weather I should be doing it in ... and driving 7 hours each way to get to. 2 others have to make the decision along with me, but as much as I really want to go, my gut is that I shouldn't.


http://www.tuckerman.org/avalanche/

Over the past 2 days the weekend forecast has moved from partly sunny to a washout. The forecast has even changed from 9pm last night as the precipitation shield is way ahead of schedule as liquid reached the ground here on Mount Washington at 5am this morning. Drizzle is currently falling at Hermit Lake under overcast skies. Unfortunately it's all downhill from here as this moisture laden system enters the region and intensifies tomorrow. QPF (predicted water amounts) have ramped up in the past 12 hours to 1.4" for the entire event with 0.8" falling tomorrow which currently holds a 90% probability of rain. Not only will this make it unpleasant to be relaxing on your favorite Ravine rock eating a soggy wonderbread sandwich, but will dramatically exacerbate our spring hazards. Crevasses and undermining will become more problematic; however, icefall will once again be the main hazardous threat in the Ravine over the next few days. Two icefall concerns exist today; the long standing large ice that developed through the winter; and the ice that quickly developed during the cold snap this week. This new ice will likely all peel off today and overnight with the ramp up of warm rain. The older larger ice, such as the upper Sluice ice, is sitting unsupported by any ice foundation below it. This is sitting up above Lunch Rocks threatening anything in its path. In addition to this threat fog over the next couple of days will dramatically increase the icefall hazard. Even if you can hear a massive block of ice cleave off you won't be able to see it coming, potentially breaking apart into multiple TVs, loungers, and refrigerator sized pieces in all directions. Fog can often develop rapidly and if this catches you when you're already up in a hazardous location it won't help your situation. Navigation around Mt. Washington will be difficult if fog overtakes the landscape and realize that all "summer trails" are still deeply buried and go through some very hazardous terrain. This scenario occurred yesterday as a school group of 60 planned on hiking up the Tuckerman Ravine trail to the summit. We caught them and explained that trails don't exist at this time of the year; it is full on mountaineering terrain. Play it conservative if on the mountain today and anticipate loosing all visibility from time to time.

I believe you made a good call.

There is always next weekend.

 

[kcyanks1]

I believe you made a good call.

There is always next weekend.

Well, call isn't made just yet...I didn't want to call anyone else yet in case they were asleep. I emailed and said to call me, but I'll call soon. Next weekend is no good because I have family plans for mother's day. The following weekend should be OK for me, but a friend I was supposed to go with will be away and my brother who is coming has an extremely unpredictable work schedule (not that mine is very predictable, but his is worse in that respect). So I can definitely shoot for 2 weekends from now, but this one was perfect as far as people being able to go, and despite early nervousness about possible showers, until this morning, it looked like I'd luck out with the weather...not beautiful, but dry.

 

[JimG.]

Well, call isn't made just yet...I didn't want to call anyone else yet in case they were asleep. I emailed and said to call me, but I'll call soon. Next weekend is no good because I have family plans for mother's day. The following weekend should be OK for me, but a friend I was supposed to go with will be away and my brother who is coming has an extremely unpredictable work schedule (not that mine is very predictable, but his is worse in that respect). So I can definitely shoot for 2 weekends from now, but this one was perfect as far as people being able to go, and despite early nervousness about possible showers, until this morning, it looked like I'd luck out with the weather...not beautiful, but dry.

Good weather conditions make the first trip there much more enjoyable.

My first trip in 20 years or so was in 2002 and we stayed 2 nights in the lean-to's.

The day we hiked in we did a Hillman's that afternoon in 60 degree weather.

By the time we finished dinner there was 4" of new snow on the ground. We got about 10" overnight total.

The next day on Hillman's was a blowing snow fest. Sunny and cold.

The big payoff was the last day, windless and sunny with superb wind packed powder. Chute was especially nice, as was Center Gully.

I won't make it up there this season...the first time in at least 5 years. Just too busy with the new job, but feeling settled in now. So it's next season for me.

Enjoy.

 

[riverc0il]

I bagged out on going today. Was looking at either Hillman's or GoS, icefall threat is much less on Hillman's and not really an issue at all in GoS along with no bumps over there either. Weather was not looking good as of last night and when I woke up the ground was wet from rain last night. Sunday is going to be a wash as well so probably a good idea to wait for a better week. Skiing was certainly doable today but I don't like getting soggy and prefer to save the slog for nicer days.

 

[andyzee]

Ha, I deserve that, I guess What would you do, seriously? If we drive up there later today as planned and it is bad weather, there's also the option of Sugarbush or even Sugarloaf ... it still will be raining, but perhaps in that weather I'd rather be at a resort than out in the backcountry, especially given that I am not familiar with Tucks. And then if we luck out with the weather, we can still do Tucks. But it's a ton of driving and effort for a maybe (coming from NYC).

I never make plans according to weather forcasts, 50% chance they're wrong. For me it's a 7-8 hour drive up there and I would just going according to plan. Have alternate plans in the event the forcasts are right. Worst case, it's still a weekend away from home, you're still checking out new areas. Guess it all depends how adventerous you are.

 

[kcyanks1]

I never make plans according to weather forcasts, 50% chance they're wrong. For me it's a 7-8 hour drive up there and I would just going according to plan. Have alternate plans in the event the forcasts are right. Worst case, it's still a weekend away from home, you're still checking out new areas. Guess it all depends how adventerous you are.

Part of me thinks like that and feels like I should go...I'd kill myself if it ended up being nice and we didn't go. That said, rental car + gas + hotel (+ time) is a lot of expense/effort for what seems like a not-to-promising outcome. If it were a forecast of a chance of showers, that's one thing. But a lot of rain and fog affecting visibility, when I have never been there, is another. My friend immediately said we should put it off before I even gave my view.. Still trying to reach my brother. Totally sucks since I wasn't planning on my season being over.

What are the skiing options normally like in mid May, assuming I shoot for going 2 weekends from now?

 

[GrilledSteezeSandwich]

Part of me thinks like that and feels like I should go...I'd kill myself if it ended up being nice and we didn't go. That said, rental car + gas + hotel (+ time) is a lot of expense/effort for what seems like a not-to-promising outcome. If it were a forecast of a chance of showers, that's one thing. But a lot of rain and fog affecting visibility, when I have never been there, is another. My friend immediately said we should put it off before I even gave my view.. Still trying to reach my brother. Totally sucks since I wasn't planning on my season being over.

What are the skiing options normally like in mid May, assuming I shoot for going 2 weekends from now?

You live in NYC..why don't you fly to Utah for a weekend and ski Snowbird.

 

[andyzee]

Part of me thinks like that and feels like I should go...I'd kill myself if it ended up being nice and we didn't go. That said, rental car + gas + hotel (+ time) is a lot of expense/effort for what seems like a not-to-promising outcome. If it were a forecast of a chance of showers, that's one thing. But a lot of rain and fog affecting visibility, when I have never been there, is another. My friend immediately said we should put it off before I even gave my view.. Still trying to reach my brother. Totally sucks since I wasn't planning on my season being over.

What are the skiing options normally like in mid May, assuming I shoot for going 2 weekends from now?

Car rental and stuff, is a cost, can't blame you. Of course, past performance is no indication of future perfomance. But below you have a couple vids from May 26 and May 27 of last year on Mt. Washington. And that is something to take into consideration, there is more to Mt. Washington then just Tux. Also, I believe it to be worthwhile just for the hike and get familiar with the mountain.

Tuckerman Ravine 5/27:


Great Gulf 5/26:

 

[kcyanks1]

So we are canceling the Tucks trip, still considering a direct trip to Sugarbush rather than one via New Hampshire. They haven't made the call yet about being open tomorrow, but will do so mid-afternoon, so we'll procrastinate a little longer on a total cancellation. Probably not happening though.

GSS: Flying out to Utah actually isn't so crazy an idea, though probably would require me to take a day or two off from work (would want at least 2 full days of skiing if I'm going on a plane I think, and then need time to travel) which I wasn't planning on doing now.

 

[eatskisleep]

I bagged out on going today. Was looking at either Hillman's or GoS, icefall threat is much less on Hillman's and not really an issue at all in GoS along with no bumps over there either. Weather was not looking good as of last night and when I woke up the ground was wet from rain last night. Sunday is going to be a wash as well so probably a good idea to wait for a better week. Skiing was certainly doable today but I don't like getting soggy and prefer to save the slog for nicer days.

Yep rained pretty much all day today, some sleet/freezing rain near the top of Hillman's. Still a great experience overall though; despite being soaked. Wow, backcountry skiing is so much fun. Seriously. :-D

 

[ckofer]

Sunday's summit weather:

Low pressure will remain over the region today, continuing the rain and fog on the summits, with the heaviest rain coming before noon. Although most moisture should fall prior to evening, with temperatures fall near or below freezing, there is a chance of rain or snow showers tonight. High pressure will build in from the SW Monday, clearing the summits and increasing the temperatures. Lower level moisture may allow for partial undercast conditions early.

Probably the best thing to do today is stay in and stream youtube vids of jam bands.

 

[awf170]

Probably the best thing to do today is stay in and stream youtube vids of jam bands.

No thanks. I think I'll stick to laying on the summit in t-shirt while I let freezing rain and sleet start to accumulate on my bare skin.

Or listen to some quality music...

 

[cbcbd]

Yeah, for first time out there I'd can on being there today. Yesterday was pretty interesting up there and I can imagine today would only be worse.

Hillman's, Left gully, and Chute should hold some snow for a while. Hope you like skiing moguls on 35+ degree terrain

 

[kcyanks1]

Yeah, for first time out there I'd can on being there today. Yesterday was pretty interesting up there and I can imagine today would only be worse.

Hillman's, Left gully, and Chute should hold some snow for a while. Hope you like skiing moguls on 35+ degree terrain

So, I went to Sugarbush with my brother and we skied half a day there. had some fun, worth all the effort. Doubt I'll make Tux this year, but at least I got day #20 in some place. And yes, 35+ degree mogul terrain is fun Did you go Saturday?