VAIL SUCKS

[kingslug]

I've been coming here for years. He might be referring to the pc side which is much smaller than canyons...
I only go over there for jupiter and mconckys...or when red pine gondi is down for wind holds...

 

[BenedictGomez]

Shouldn't be more than a few years before BAMCO and Blackrock join together in activist fashion and force Vail to "unlock value" by selling off some ski areas.

I'm really starting to wonder how much of the recent favorable bump in their results was all just COVID19 related & remote work related, which is starting to now recede, versus Vail really "growing the market" etc.... That's the sort of thing that really muddies the waters for Wall Street analysts and just leaves you guessing. Literally guessing.

 

[BenedictGomez]

That’s very funny, I spoke with a Bretton Woods regular yesterday who went to Park City a few weeks ago and said it was so insanely crowded he could barely stand it.

There were definitely a few times where I thought about going skiing, checked the PC website, saw the lines at Payday and Crescent and "NOPED".

But to be fair IIRC each time it was because one of those two lifts and/or RPG/OBX were on wind hold or mechanical holds. Actually, a TON of PCMR lifts have had "mechanical issues" this season. Sometimes they only last 15 or 35 minutes, but it seems odd to me, unless they're just crazy conservative with this stuff, but people are talking. I had an experience on Super Condor the day it first opened for the season which left me not taking it for another week just to be safe.

 

[4aprice]

There were definitely a few times where I thought about going skiing, checked the PC website, saw the lines at Payday and Crescent and "NOPED".

But to be fair IIRC each time it was because one of those two lifts and/or RPG/OBX were on wind hold or mechanical holds. Actually, a TON of PCMR lifts have had "mechanical issues" this season. Sometimes they only last 15 or 35 minutes, but it seems odd to me, unless they're just crazy conservative with this stuff, but people are talking. I had an experience on Super Condor the day it first opened for the season which left me not taking it for another week just to be safe.

Covid has been the greatest excuse to lower the customer service bar (almost to ground level). Not just skiing either.

Seems to me there have been more lift failures this year then in the past and I'm not talking just Vail, Alterra is in there too. I know a couple of lifts went down at my home bump and like you I was hesitant to get on one for a while. They also never bothered to even fix the other one this season.

 

[drjeff]

Covid has been the greatest excuse to lower the customer service bar (almost to ground level). Not just skiing either.

Seems to me there have been more lift failures this year then in the past and I'm not talking just Vail, Alterra is in there too. I know a couple of lifts went down at my home bump and like you I was hesitant to get on one for a while. They also never bothered to even fix the other one this season.

Not sure how much of the lift mechanical issues, across so many resorts of various owners, this season is due to Covid, vs we're entering an era when lots of the, call them 1st generation high speed lift,s are entering 25-30 yrs of service, and the reality is that the industry as a whole, doesn't really have a solid feeling yet, for what the true, effective lifespan of those machines is. It seems like it's shorter than a fxed grip lift (not shocking given the far greater amount of "moving parts") but how much shorter does that time when continuing to since significant reapir dollars into that old machine verses replacing it with a new machine, arrive? The industry will be learning plenty about that over the next decade or so I suspect

 

[jimmywilson69]

Its not a direct result of COVID. its the fact that some of the lift brain trust has retired, some have moved on to other non-skiing jobs that pay a helluva lot more, and others have moved to other ski areas. Also as the Good Dr said, these highly complex machines that work in cold weather are getting old and need some loving. Its great that Vail and Altera have splurged on new lifts the past 2 years, but the old ones need TLC too.

both main lifts at my local Vail owned hill are running at slower speeds to end the season. They either need motors rebuilt or some other major overhaul. We'll see if they throw any money are way. I was told that they have to spend $1 Million dollars on their primary stormwater pond dam and intake to be in compliance with state regulations.

 

[4aprice]

Not sure how much of the lift mechanical issues, across so many resorts of various owners, this season is due to Covid, vs we're entering an era when lots of the, call them 1st generation high speed lift,s are entering 25-30 yrs of service, and the reality is that the industry as a whole, doesn't really have a solid feeling yet, for what the true, effective lifespan of those machines is. It seems like it's shorter than a fxed grip lift (not shocking given the far greater amount of "moving parts") but how much shorter does that time when continuing to since significant reapir dollars into that old machine verses replacing it with a new machine, arrive? The industry will be learning plenty about that over the next decade or so I suspect

Didn't mean that Covid had anything to do with the lift failures, it was just a comment on the current state of customer service including but not entirely in the ski industry. The comment on lift failures is just an observation

 

[doublediamond]

Epic

Kind of confused by the article, it says ticket revenue, f&b, ancillary revenue are up, but income is down? While at the same time saying pass sales helped in what they are saying is a bad winter (Didn't think it's been as bad as many...), and passes weren't sold last quarter anyway I wouldn't think. Snowmaking would affect profit but not income... what am I missing

Personally have not given a cent to Vail in years

IIRC Vail attributes pass revenue to when you show up at the mountain. How they do this IDK.

 

[kingslug]

After running for 20 years,most machines are nearing the end of life. You can keep them running with constant maintenance, but metal fatigue kicks in and after a while...failure gets more frequent. These lifts operate in a very harsh environment.
No different than cars. You don't see a lot of 25 to 35 year old cars on the road anymore except at car shows.
Except this one in the parking lot of our condo now...with a ski rack on the roof...

 

[2Planker]

After running for 20 years,most machines are nearing the end of life. You can keep them running with constant maintenance, but metal fatigue kicks in and after a while...failure gets more frequent. These lifts operate in a very harsh environment.
No different than cars. You don't see a lot of 25 to 35 year old cars on the road anymore except at car shows.
Except this one in the parking lot of our condo now...with a ski rack on the roof...View attachment 61640

Most of my cars are 30-60 years old

 

[kingslug]

How many miles on them?
In VT I see a lot of old trucks...the body all rusted out but still chugging along.

 

[thetrailboss]

Vail Resorts Falls After Weak Ski Season Prompts Forecast Cut

(Bloomberg) -- Vail Resorts Inc., the ski resort operator, fell as much as 7.6% in extended trading after reporting lower-than-expected guest visits and cutting its profit forecast for the year.Most Read from BloombergOne of the Most Infamous Trades on Wall Street Is Roaring BackChina Has Never...

finance.yahoo.com

"I BLAME YOU ASSHOLES! IT'S ALL ALPINEZONE'S FAULT! THE NEXT OUTAGE MAY BE THE LAST FOR YOU ALL!!!"

 

[thetrailboss]

That’s very funny, I spoke with a Bretton Woods regular yesterday who went to Park City a few weeks ago and said it was so insanely crowded he could barely stand it. Not a holiday week.

I guess it is all relative.

 

[thetrailboss]

Outside of Stowe, I haven't waited in a line yet this season at a Vail resort. Visits are definitely way down in New England. On the fence renewing for next season, but I'll probably give in and renew with a downgrade. Still on track for not spending a dime beyond the pass. I'm sure the NH snow making budget will suck. Again. But I don't think it could get worse? Wishful thinking maybe? I think we will see sub $200 stock price when the next financials are released if not sooner.

So I have not read the Vail Press Release or the report for investors/the market. Do they attribute the decline on the weather?

 

[thetrailboss]

But to be fair IIRC each time it was because one of those two lifts and/or RPG/OBX were on wind hold or mechanical holds. Actually, a TON of PCMR lifts have had "mechanical issues" this season. Sometimes they only last 15 or 35 minutes, but it seems odd to me, unless they're just crazy conservative with this stuff, but people are talking. I had an experience on Super Condor the day it first opened for the season which left me not taking it for another week just to be safe.

Seems to me there have been more lift failures this year then in the past and I'm not talking just Vail, Alterra is in there too. I know a couple of lifts went down at my home bump and like you I was hesitant to get on one for a while. They also never bothered to even fix the other one this season.

As to Canyons, we're going on close to 25-30 years for the first round of lift updates made by this company known as American Skiing Company. It's crazy to think it's been that long. I remember when ASC bought Wolf Mountain/Canyons and was making a big splash with the snowmaking, lifts, etc. The same can be said for Sugarbush. Those lifts are getting old and as they are complex machines more components are breaking/harder to replace.

In terms of money and expenses, it is hard to say that the issues are due to lack of maintenance. I think the bigger expense piece is what is lurking around the corner for the owners. That's replacement of multiple lifts in a very short amount of time. Back 25-30 years ago we had a few conglomerates--Vail/Booth Creek, ASC, Intrawest (remember them?), even SKI way back when. Now we're basically down to two larger players--Vail and Alterra--and they have to pay for replacing these generation of lifts that were installed in the go-go 1990's. So far Alterra has invested most of its $$$ in acquisitions and developing western areas. Vail has been expanding, until recently, and replacing lifts here and there. But on the east coast, resorts like Stratton, Sugarbush, and Killington (a POWDR resort) have a lot of old lifts of similar vintages that need upgrading or replacement. That's a lot of money. Canyons has a lot that are similar vintage.

We'll see if Alterra and Vail step up and replace these lifts or just continue to put Bandaids on them.....

 

[cdskier]

So I have not read the Vail Press Release or the report for investors/the market. Do they attribute the decline on the weather?

Yes

 

[thetrailboss]

Yes

Makes sense. From what I've seen from VPR/Eye on the Sky, this has been the warmest winter on record.

 

[kingslug]

Pretty warm here in pc...snow yesterday was just about rain.
Thought I left that...in vt...

 

[chuckstah]

So I have not read the Vail Press Release or the report for investors/the market. Do they attribute the decline on the weather?

Yes, they blame it on lack of snow. Crowds are definitely way off. My one day at Attitash on vacation week Sunday was ski on on all lifts. Bluebird day. Also my worst day of the season. Boilerplate everywhere. No real effort being made at all. I won't go back.

 

[4aprice]

Pretty warm here in pc...snow yesterday was just about rain.
Thought I left that...in vt...

This next storm kind of circled around Utah down by the 4 corners. The front range is about to get nailed. Maybe 3 ft at Winter Park. Just hoping I can get into Denver and over Berthoud Pass on Saturday