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Forecasts are trending snowier for Wednesday. Perhaps some light accumulations?
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Wednesday Clipper?
- Thread starter Greg
- Start date
Sounds good to me. Where do I sign the petition to make it happen??
billski
Active member
rack it up. a couple inches a day for the next five days sounds sweet to me. Friday is alpine geological research field trip day. We will study the effects of rapid altitude loss in a below-freezing environment 
loafer89
New member
This could possibly be the start of a pattern change to inland/Great Lakes running storms for the next few weeks at least, keeping New England on the warmer rainy side of most storms. At least this is what the forecast model that I watched on Accuweather suggested.
Upcoming Major Events
Tuesday, December 18, 2007
The overall weather pattern across North America will begin to change this week as a more west to easterly flow of air takes over across the Lower 48 and southern Canada, which will spread "milder" Pacific air from west to east and gradually push out the cold air. With this coming pattern we can expect the Arctic air to be confined from Alaska to northern BC and northern Alberta with another pocket from Labrador on north. Latest indications from long range models actually amplifies this pattern over the next couple of weeks which will lead to above normal temperatures across the eastern half of the U.S. and Canada, while the southwest coast of Canada and the U.S. Pacific Northwest continues to be under the influence of a powerful Pacific jet stream which will bring storm after storm across the region through the end of the month and perhaps into January.
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billski
Active member
Accuweather's never been wr:dunce:ng bef:dunce:re, have they?
I'll keep my money on Scott, but unfortunately, he's skiing all week
yea but accuweather's long range discussion is full of crap.
They might be right but they are terrible with long range discussions.
Sadly i do think the best skiing for the next few weeks is through sat. After that it's going to be a thaw-rain-freeze- lightsnow pattern for a while.
Then again who knows.
just hope this storm will peter out. I don't think the track is changing. It's going to be a january of great lakes storms.
They might be right but they are terrible with long range discussions.
Sadly i do think the best skiing for the next few weeks is through sat. After that it's going to be a thaw-rain-freeze- lightsnow pattern for a while.
Then again who knows.
just hope this storm will peter out. I don't think the track is changing. It's going to be a january of great lakes storms.
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NWS forecast discussion for the Sundown area:
loafer89
New member
Well December was forecast to be warm and that certainly did not happen. Our local news said that Bradley/Hartford airport has recieved 15.9" of snow so far this season vs 24" for the entire year of the 2006-2007 winter season.
Hopefully the pattern change will lead to a serious build-up and outbreak of cold weather in January.
Hopefully the pattern change will lead to a serious build-up and outbreak of cold weather in January.
Yea-- that's brining it back to wed. clipper and that's great. 3-4 is still 3-4. The more we get now the better for the holiday week.
The key for those of us stuck not skiing until the holiday time is going to be this storm sat night- monday am.
Currently it is progged to up up into the great lakes and blow up there with snow- mix-rain light snow forecasted for BTV area. We either want this track to change- possible since this track depends on a ridge developing over the east coast pushing track or we want the storm to die down and bust. Less rain is good.
After that then a 4 inch clipper is what we need to rework the base from frozen rock to carveable stuff.
Then again wetting and freezing the snow pack that is down now could mean it's not going anywhere for a while!
The key for those of us stuck not skiing until the holiday time is going to be this storm sat night- monday am.
Currently it is progged to up up into the great lakes and blow up there with snow- mix-rain light snow forecasted for BTV area. We either want this track to change- possible since this track depends on a ridge developing over the east coast pushing track or we want the storm to die down and bust. Less rain is good.
After that then a 4 inch clipper is what we need to rework the base from frozen rock to carveable stuff.
Then again wetting and freezing the snow pack that is down now could mean it's not going anywhere for a while!
loafer89
New member
My neighbor is having a "passing of the longest night" party on saturday:-?
I can't decide if I should wear black to this affair:razz:
I will have to retaliate with a passing of the longest day party in June and celebrate it on Mount Hood
I can't decide if I should wear black to this affair:razz:
I will have to retaliate with a passing of the longest day party in June and celebrate it on Mount Hood
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As we head into January, perhaps warmer than average temps are not such a bad thing, as long as it's only moderate. Might actually result in more snow than a super arctic cold and dry January. We're a million miles ahead of where we were last year so let's just roll with it.
I'm rolling with it...I'm just saying I don't like the strong southeast rigde and it's desire to push storms into the great lakes.
HOWEVER that's been the pattern so far so maybe the models i keep seeing don't know what the hell is going on.
Whatever happens happens- at least with weather we can say we actually don't have any control.
HOWEVER that's been the pattern so far so maybe the models i keep seeing don't know what the hell is going on.
Whatever happens happens- at least with weather we can say we actually don't have any control.
I agree with with..If there has to be a warm up, let it happen during the coldest months.
awf170
New member
loafer89
New member
NOAA is calling for 1 - 1.5" of rain for my part of Connecticut on sunday:evil:
Even the forecast for Sugarloaf is calling for rain on sunday. We will probably make a dash for a day at Sunday River on saturday and then go home if the current forecast holds true, which I hope it does not.
Even the forecast for Sugarloaf is calling for rain on sunday. We will probably make a dash for a day at Sunday River on saturday and then go home if the current forecast holds true, which I hope it does not.
loafer89
New member
An extended outlook for Canada, but it does have some bearing on our weather:
Model Update through March
Tuesday, December 18, 2007
The European monthly forecast for North America just updated over the weekend. The model creates a new monthly forecast once a month and from what I see it continues to sing the same tune in its forecast for the remainder of the winter and into March across North America. This consistency in the forecasted pattern over the next several months gives forecasters like myself a little more confidence in the models predictions, compared to one that jumps all over the place. Here is what the new update shows......
January 2008
The model continues to forecast a mean ridge of high pressure in the upper levels of the atmosphere (warm/dry pocket aloft) extending from the southern Plains to the U.S. East Coast and then into Atlantic Canada, while a large trough of low pressure in the upper levels (cold pocket aloft) extends from Alaska to northern British Columbia. This type of pattern will continue to feed Pacific air across much of the Lower 48 of the U.S. and then into eastern Canada, while the Arctic air is confined from Alaska to the Northwest Territories and perhaps down into northern BC and Alberta. This pattern would bring many storms into the Pacific Northwest coast. A second main storm track would extend from the central U.S. Plains then up into the Upper Great Lakes, leading to a snowy month from southeastern Manitoba through northwestern and portions of central Ontario. This forecast, if correct, would lead to a snowy, cold month for much of BC and western Alberta. Farther east, it looks drier and mild across the eastern U.S. Across the remainder of Ontario and in southern Quebec precipitation will be near normal, but rain and mixed precipitation could be more of an issue, than it was in December. Temperatures across Atlantic Canada would be slightly above normal with less storms.
February 2008
Not much to say about February, since it looks a lot like January from the model forecast. A couple of differences, the coldest, Arctic air expands farther to the south and east and gets into the western prairies, while still covering the interior of BC and the Yukon. Greenland would be colder than normal. The mean storm track might shift a little farther to the south from the central Plains to the middle Great Lakes and then across southern Quebec or northern New England, which may mean an increased chance for above-normal snowfall from central and eastern Ontario through Quebec and New Brunswick. The Northwest storminess would also begin to diminish a bit, but still active compared to normal.
March 2008
The model is forecasting the eastern ridge to slowly retreat and weaken over the southern U.S. during the month, while a broad trough of low pressure in the upper atmosphere covers much of western Canada. If the forecast is correct, the mean storm pattern across the U.S. would continue to shift southward and run from the southern plains to the lower Great Lakes or Northeastern U.S., while the Southeastern U.S. remains dry and unseasonably mild. This pattern would bring above normal precipitation to the Great Lakes and Northeast U.S., including central/southern/eastern Ontario and Quebec with near to slightly above-normal temperatures. Snowfall would be above normal throughout most of Ontario and southern Quebec. Atlantic Canada would see temperatures trend back to normal with normal precipitation. Much of western Canada would remain colder than normal, with much below-normal temperatures from interior BC to Saskatchewan. Snowfall will be above normal in the Canadian Rockies once again, and probably most of the prairies.
Model Update through March
Tuesday, December 18, 2007
The European monthly forecast for North America just updated over the weekend. The model creates a new monthly forecast once a month and from what I see it continues to sing the same tune in its forecast for the remainder of the winter and into March across North America. This consistency in the forecasted pattern over the next several months gives forecasters like myself a little more confidence in the models predictions, compared to one that jumps all over the place. Here is what the new update shows......
January 2008
The model continues to forecast a mean ridge of high pressure in the upper levels of the atmosphere (warm/dry pocket aloft) extending from the southern Plains to the U.S. East Coast and then into Atlantic Canada, while a large trough of low pressure in the upper levels (cold pocket aloft) extends from Alaska to northern British Columbia. This type of pattern will continue to feed Pacific air across much of the Lower 48 of the U.S. and then into eastern Canada, while the Arctic air is confined from Alaska to the Northwest Territories and perhaps down into northern BC and Alberta. This pattern would bring many storms into the Pacific Northwest coast. A second main storm track would extend from the central U.S. Plains then up into the Upper Great Lakes, leading to a snowy month from southeastern Manitoba through northwestern and portions of central Ontario. This forecast, if correct, would lead to a snowy, cold month for much of BC and western Alberta. Farther east, it looks drier and mild across the eastern U.S. Across the remainder of Ontario and in southern Quebec precipitation will be near normal, but rain and mixed precipitation could be more of an issue, than it was in December. Temperatures across Atlantic Canada would be slightly above normal with less storms.
February 2008
Not much to say about February, since it looks a lot like January from the model forecast. A couple of differences, the coldest, Arctic air expands farther to the south and east and gets into the western prairies, while still covering the interior of BC and the Yukon. Greenland would be colder than normal. The mean storm track might shift a little farther to the south from the central Plains to the middle Great Lakes and then across southern Quebec or northern New England, which may mean an increased chance for above-normal snowfall from central and eastern Ontario through Quebec and New Brunswick. The Northwest storminess would also begin to diminish a bit, but still active compared to normal.
March 2008
The model is forecasting the eastern ridge to slowly retreat and weaken over the southern U.S. during the month, while a broad trough of low pressure in the upper atmosphere covers much of western Canada. If the forecast is correct, the mean storm pattern across the U.S. would continue to shift southward and run from the southern plains to the lower Great Lakes or Northeastern U.S., while the Southeastern U.S. remains dry and unseasonably mild. This pattern would bring above normal precipitation to the Great Lakes and Northeast U.S., including central/southern/eastern Ontario and Quebec with near to slightly above-normal temperatures. Snowfall would be above normal throughout most of Ontario and southern Quebec. Atlantic Canada would see temperatures trend back to normal with normal precipitation. Much of western Canada would remain colder than normal, with much below-normal temperatures from interior BC to Saskatchewan. Snowfall will be above normal in the Canadian Rockies once again, and probably most of the prairies.
Noaa just put up snow advisory for BTV east as the trough associated with this clipper will strengthen a little bit. Looks like from today through thursday there will be about 4 for the dacks, 5-7 for vt and parts east.
Not bad, not bad.
Storm sunday looks a little disorganized and the amt. of precip. has decreased a little bit.
After that - some cold air looks to work in.
Not bad, not bad.
Storm sunday looks a little disorganized and the amt. of precip. has decreased a little bit.
After that - some cold air looks to work in.
awf170
New member
WJenness
Active member
I like this post a lot more.Looks like Thursday could be my 4th straight powder day...
Where are you headed?
I'll be at Wa after work with a few people from work... I'll look for you if you're going to be there.
-w
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