Weekend of December 14th

[BenedictGomez]

NAM is a big bowl of meh

It's worse than "meh", if the NAM verifies we go from what was predicted to be an awesome snowstorm to crap-tons of rain.

Hell, there'd even be rain in upstate NY and parts of Maine. Doubt this is correct it's such a major flip-flop. Usually the NAM gets more accurate the closer you get, but given it's absolutely on an island right now I wouldnt be surprised if it has some sort of initialization error.

 

[ScottySkis]

Really? Am I just totally flaking out or wasnt it only about a week ago they had bare ground and no snow where there wasnt snowmaking? I'd definitely go to Platty rather than the Poconos if I thought the conditions would be same/better.

They have no base but usually because the lawn in mowed for unexpected Powder days they have open everything with a foot. Tough call, I am waiting to Sunday to make my decision. If Platty doesn't get the snow to open up you check out
Catamont off Taconic not to crowded that is my plan or Bell, windham, or Hunter.

 

[billski]

NAM is a big bowl of meh

agree
THE NAM STILL SEEMS TO BE A BIT OF AN OUTLIER NOT SUPPORTED WELL
BY THE WPC GUIDANCE.
A UTILIZATION OF THE PAUL ROEBBER SNOW TO LIQUID RATIO ALG TECHNIQUE INDICATES VERY HIGH PROBABILITIES OF VERY HIGHS SNOW TO LQUID RATIOS OF 15:1 OR GREATER FOR THE ONSET FROM THE NAM/GFS.

source: ALY WFO, 12/13 pm

 

[ScottySkis]

agree
THE NAM STILL SEEMS TO BE A BIT OF AN OUTLIER NOT SUPPORTED WELL
BY THE WPC GUIDANCE.
A UTILIZATION OF THE PAUL ROEBBER SNOW TO LIQUID RATIO ALG TECHNIQUE INDICATES VERY HIGH PROBABILITIES OF VERY HIGHS SNOW TO LQUID RATIOS OF 15:1 OR GREATER FOR THE ONSET FROM THE NAM/GFS.

source: ALY WFO, 12/13 pm

What is this NAM snow dance please. Still looks good for the Catskills?

 

[Boston Bulldog]

No way it's right, I just won't believe it.


Sent from my iPhone using AlpineZone mobile app

 

[BenedictGomez]

What is this NAM snow dance please. Still looks good for the Catskills?

You'd still get snow. But the NAM is warmer and moves the r/s ice stuff considerably higher north, warmth hugs the coast even up to ME'ish. Totally robs NJ of this storm. Like I said, I bet it's wrong. But it just put more significance on the GFS and EURO coming out tonight. Fingers crossed.

 

[BenedictGomez]

00Z Canuck is out, and it's warmer too

My 8" to 10" predicted in north Jersey seems to be escaping me... I feel like Charlie Brown with the football again.

 

[Boston Bulldog]

GFS stays the course. Whew!

Ski Country is still in line for 8-12/ 10-14

 

[vermonter44]

GFS stays the course. Whew!

Ski Country is still in line for 8-12/ 10-14

Still looks good for the Northeast.

Just hope the GFS is right and the NAM is wrong...

 

[BenedictGomez]

GFS stays the course. Whew!

Ski Country is still in line for 8-12/ 10-14

But huge chunks of eastern geography just got completely screwed out of this storm, and it's now way less of an impressive event than what we thought a few hours ago. Hell, I'm even worrying a bit about the Catskills a little bit now.

If you have car and dont mind travel, southern Vermont now appears to be the likely winner.

 

[ScottySkis]

But huge chunks of eastern geography just got completely screwed out of this storm, and it's now way less of an impressive event than what we thought a few hours ago. Hell, I'm even worrying a bit about the Catskills a little bit now.

If you have car and dont mind travel, southern Vermont now appears to be the likely winner.

Rain all day or rain after mixing with snow if that happens for Platty? You think if it rains at Platty Will it rain in Hillsdale NY ( Taconics mountain range home if Catamont).

 

[billski]

Windholds for Sunday. Too bad Magic isn't open.

 

[wa-loaf]

Windholds for Sunday. Too bad Magic isn't open.

They won't open up if they get a foot plus?

 

[wa-loaf]

Matt Noyes

Coldest temperature in New England this morning? Big Black River, ME, at...wait for it...-34 degrees F. Wow. Big Black River, Maine, not only was coldest in New England, but coldest in the Lower 48 and only 7 reporting stations in Alaska were colder, too! This is a testament to the rock solid cold air that's entrenched in New England. Such arctic air will result in fluffy snow for much of interior Central and Northern New England, and will make for a sharp coastal front closer to the coast. Check my wall at 9:45 for more on possible impact to snow amounts.

 

[BenedictGomez]

Rain all day or rain after mixing with snow if that happens for Platty? You think if it rains at Platty Will it rain in Hillsdale NY ( Taconics mountain range home if Catamont).

Catskills look fine now. The trend north + trend warm worried me if it continued, but it looks like they're still on course for 8" or so. Also, look at the temperatures this morning. It's already colder right now everywhere than what the models said it would be right now at this time, so the r/s line shouldnt get quite as high as it is on some model runs. It's the people who live where I do who are losing out on big snows, and it's the people on the coast that are going to get absolutely shafted.

 

[billski]

They won't open up if they get a foot plus?

Read their blog and FB entries. They are hedging, but my reading is that they will wait until next week. No point in opening for just a couple of trails. They need base, and unlike the big powerhouses, they need mother nature to help, even with the snowmaking fixes.

 

[billski]

Regarding the Cats:

 

[billski]

Here is the freezing rain probability @ 0.10"

 

[billski]

Catskills look fine now. The trend north + trend warm worried me if it continued, but it looks like they're still on course for 8" or so. Also, look at the temperatures this morning. It's already colder right now everywhere than what the models said it would be right now at this time, so the r/s line shouldnt get quite as high as it is on some model runs. It's the people who live where I do who are losing out on big snows, and it's the people on the coast that are going to get absolutely shafted.

Agree on the Cats. Pocs will have a mix.

This is a computer forecast indicating temperatures in layers aloft for tonight at 1 AM EST. It can be used as a guide to indicate the type of precipitation that will occur if precipitation falls. Precipitation that occurs in the green area will be rain. Precipitation that occurs in the blue area south of the heavy red contour labeled 1550 will be freezing rain or sleet. Precipitation that occurs in the blue area between the heavy red contour labeled 1540 and the heavy red contour labeled 1550 will be a mixture of snow, freezing rain, and sleet. Precipitation that occurs in the blue area north of the heavy red contour labeled 1540 will be snow.

 

[billski]

Here are your snow/ice/rain lines