Gas Prices = Apprehension for Next Season?

[snoseek]

Are you a parent? If not, check what you think you know at the door.

If you are a parent, at some very basic level I agree with you a little bit. It might be nice if my wife was able to stay home full time with the kids......maybe. My wife's personality is such that we both feel she needs to maintain an "adult identity" so she works four days a week. Plus it does help a bit financially. And yes, my kids are in day care/preschool those four days a week. They just so happen to be very healthy, polite, smart and well adjusted kids.

In fact, I just met with my 5 year old's teacher today. She's technically in a kindergarten curriculum, despite the fact that she is too young to start in the public school's first grade program in September. Her teacher indicates that at every level she is ready for it though. Probably one of the kindest souls on the planet too. Her little sister is following a very similar, perhaps even more accelerated path.

So, yeah, perhaps kids should be home with mom that first year or year and a half, but there are some pretty obvious benefits to day care/preschool too. So, again, what is your parenting experience?

I don't know jack about kids other than I can't live my lifestyle and afford to have them. My parents think I live a selfish lifestyle by always doing what I want but I totally disagree (can't feed em' don't breed em').

I'm not gonna pretend to know all about your world, just stating that i feel so many have the whole idea of needs and wants twisted. when was the last time you met someone without cable t.v. or a cell phone? These things that make our life "better" seem to keep piling up over the years, monthly bills grow, and we are even more slaves to our jobs. Every generation seems to work a little more to have these things and every generation seems to have less time for children. This is a very broad generalization of course.


Edit-you know if I had kids I probably would send them off to preschool or whatever a couple days a week just to socialize them with other kids, I'm sure that's important. I have always had dogs, children seem pretty much like dogs in so many ways-to me they are the same.

If you don't have a dog then you wouldn't know. lol!

 

[skiboarder]

I find the increased gas issue is blown way out of proportion for the non poor. It takes about 22 gallons of gas for me to go from westchester to Killington roundtrip. Say gas prices will increase $2.00 a gallon from this ski season from the previous. My weekend is costing me $44 more. At $2.50, $55 more. For my wife and I , discounted lift tixes will be $172 for 2 days. Lodging about $250. Food, maybe about $150. If gas is $5 a gallon, it will cost $110. $682 for the weekend instead of say $630. That's an increase in total cost of less than 10%. Add an extra day or kids to the mix, and the % price increase gets much smaller. Is this really a big deal? Hell, bring a hot plate or stay at a place with access to a microwave and don't go out for dinner and your ahead of the game.

 

[skiboarder]

That is a tad excessive. Ignorant or delusional? Wow. No need for ad hominem attacks to support your view point. I do not have massive amounts of income and my home mountain is 240 miles round trip. But I am not overly concerned with $4 gas no more than I was at $3 gas. I still drive my 35-40 MPG fuel efficient non-hybrid vehicle. My total gas costs for a ski season may add up to $1000 next year (this year it will be just under $800) but it is part of the cost of skiing. I don't do a lot of other things so I can ski. Gas becomes too expensive to me when it is cheaper to spend the night rather than do a back to back day trip which will be the case at $6 per gallon gas when I will become concerned. Five grand seems kind of high for a home heating cost estimate. We have an 1800+ square foot home and will probably spend about $1500 for heating this winter assuming a 20-25% increase.

I think the average skier will probably be able to take this year's increase in stride. Not saying a lot of folks won't be effected, there will be plenty of folks feeling the pinch at the pump and making changes. But I think most folks won't make too many adjustments. Long term, I think in a few years we could see some massive changes. Their are opportunities and challenges for ski areas in this environment and I suspect the smaller areas further away from metro areas will feel the pain the worst.

Testify!

 

[skiboarder]

Alternative energy/technology is not the immediate answer. I'm not sure what is, but come on....you don't think there is enough incentive for alternative energy already? The government shouldn't need to mandate anything. The American entrepreneurial spirit should really be all that is needed. But until then, we as a society are dependent on petroleum products and that's going to be the case for the near term, bottom line.

It is a problem that affects the entire country. A Federal response is not only appropriate, but vital. In addition to mandated higher fuel standards, we need large amounts of money to go into a "Manhattan Project" type project to develop alternative fuel technology. Think about the enormous technological changes in every industry within the last 100 years. The auto was invented about 100 years ago, but the propulsion is fundamentally the same- the internal combustion engine. Very sad.

 

[Geoff]

It is a problem that affects the entire country. A Federal response is not only appropriate, but vital. In addition to mandated higher fuel standards, we need large amounts of money to go into a "Manhattan Project" type project to develop alternative fuel technology. Think about the enormous technological changes in every industry within the last 100 years. The auto was invented about 100 years ago, but the propulsion is fundamentally the same- the internal combustion engine. Very sad.

I'd point out that the "Manhattan Project" almost blew up the entire world.

This isn't a technology problem. We have plenty of alternatives to oil. The simple fact is that oil is still cheaper than the alternative sources for personal transportation.

Market forces are going to push fleet MPG numbers up to around 35 mpg. That's already the number in Europe. There's no magic. It's wind resistance and weight. If economics force people to use it, public transportation is far more efficient than automobiles. Fix the rail beds and electrify them where it makes sense. Move freight by rail instead of by truck. More bus service. People will stop heating with oil. Wood pellets are a renewable resource.

If you want a federal response, it should be to fund public transportation.

 

[RichT]

50K!! My real eststate taxes (NY) are one third of that............maybe in Ohio but not in the lower northeast! No complaining, Because when it comes time to retire hopfully early, we sell our small $600k homes, and take our nice size 401k's and head to the mtn's!!!

 

[ckofer]

huh?


Anyway I consider anyone taking home 50+ k per year to be pretty well off and well above average.

Exactly what is a worker bee? Anyhow, $50K/yr is not a ton of money in New England. It's a squeeze to raise a family on twice that (and ski), hence my Ski Cheap Or Die project.

 

[Greg]

I have always had dogs, children seem pretty much like dogs in so many ways-to me they are the same.

Riiiiiight.... :roll:

Two big pet peeves of mine:

1. When folks that have worked hard to be successful in life and earn a good living are somehow looked negatively upon for it.
2. When someone that's never raised kids somehow feels they are at all qualified to criticize those that have.

Thanks for touching both nerves in this thread.

 

[drjeff]

Riiiiiight.... :roll:

Two big pet peeves of mine:

1. When folks that have worked hard to be successful in life and earn a good living are somehow looked negatively upon for it.
2. When someone that's never raised kids somehow feels they are at all qualified to criticize those that have.

Thanks for touching both nerves in this thread.

+5!!!

 

[deadheadskier]

What has increased over the years is the tax burden and the expenses that didn't even exist back then ..

The tax part of you statement is true for lower income workers, but not for those making high incomes and corporations. The highest earners were taxed at a FAR higher percentage 50 years ago than they are today. The same is true for corporations. Back then, corporate taxes covered upwards of 30% of federal taxes, today it is around 15%.

This is in part why it the current economic situation is much harder on low-middle income workers than it is the wealthy. Bush throws the low end a bone of $600 to get the 'peasants' to pipe down, while at the same time returning boat loads of money to the richest 1%. Over half of the total dollars in tax cuts in his plan go to that 1%, people whose average income is 1.5 mil or higher. This of course doesn't even factor in that for most people at that income level, they get their income in the form of capitol gains, which is already taxed at a far lower percent than wage income.

All this in the good spirit of trickle down economics......B$%l S@#t

 

[Warp Daddy]

What is scary here guys is that the tenor of this conversation is but ONE TINY example of WHAT could happen and the potential for "class warfare " that very well may play out when /IF this current economic decline deepens .

Most people have NEVER had to wonder how to house , feed , and provide for family unity in DIFFICULT times .While some may have read about devaluation and/or devolution most/all cannot relate to it. Many former members of the SOLID middle class will see not only their lifestyle change perhaps drastically but also their security and IF /when that happens this will be true chaos .

Treat each other well !

 

[deadheadskier]

Riiiiiight.... :roll:

Two big pet peeves of mine:

1. When folks that have worked hard to be successful in life and earn a good living are somehow looked negatively upon for it.
2. When someone that's never raised kids somehow feels they are at all qualified to criticize those that have.

Thanks for touching both nerves in this thread.

I think you're being overly sensitive here.

I'm not sure what he said that touched nerve #1. Where exactly did he criticize you for earning a good living? Nerve #2, only slightly. I don't think he directly attempted to insult your parenting methods.

 

[billski]

I find the increased gas issue is blown way out of proportion for the non poor. It takes about 22 gallons of gas for me to go from westchester to Killington roundtrip. Say gas prices will increase $2.00 a gallon from this ski season from the previous. My weekend is costing me $44 more. At $2.50, $55 more. For my wife and I , discounted lift tixes will be $172 for 2 days. Lodging about $250. Food, maybe about $150. If gas is $5 a gallon, it will cost $110. $682 for the weekend instead of say $630. That's an increase in total cost of less than 10%. Add an extra day or kids to the mix, and the % price increase gets much smaller. Is this really a big deal? Hell, bring a hot plate or stay at a place with access to a microwave and don't go out for dinner and your ahead of the game.

The people that get hurt first are those "living on the edge." Those that could just ek out enough "disposable income" to go on a trip may not be able to afford the additional $44 (I'd argue it's going to cost you more than that for your example/see below). So we'll see those people turning into day-trippers, dropping out or going with fewer people.

The other people on the edge are those that have been making up for increasing prices by using their credit cards for everything and not paying it off. This is often a hidden behavior, difficult to track until the collector comes-a-callin'. Eventually it will catch up with them, if they can't pay off the card debt and blam, they'll stop spending it.

I'd argue it's a lot more than that since your lodging and food are going to increase, because they all depend on trucks to transport and to manufacture. It will have a direct impact on all consumables, including your new skis and rentals.

As far as the lift tickets, rental rates and fees for other activities, resorts will wisely not post their prices until the 11th hour - to see how much the market will bear. There will be a much better reading on where we are going with oil prices in November.

 

[snoseek]

Riiiiiight.... :roll:

Two big pet peeves of mine:

1. When folks that have worked hard to be successful in life and earn a good living are somehow looked negatively upon for it.
2. When someone that's never raised kids somehow feels they are at all qualified to criticize those that have.

Thanks for touching both nerves in this thread.

No problem, anytime:grin: (I hate smilies They're dumb, but guess I should start using them)

Anyway you sound a bit like my sister that has a holier than thou, I've reached a whole different level of being because I reproduced. It actually touches a nerve with me because most of the family treats me like I'm gay and they're are hardcore christian.


It's all good, we live completely separate lives, you took one fork, I took the other. You chose family, things, ect..., I choose experiences. I don't expect you to understand where I'm coming from.

Edit- to adress pet peeve #1 I in no way look down on folks with money, they are directly my livlihood. I was just stating that many are complete slaves to their jobs because of how they live, spend. The best thing you can do if you hate your job, don't see kids enough, want to try something newect.... is dramatically decrease spending to give more financial freedom. That is my whole point.

 

[Greg]

I think you're being overly sensitive here.

I'm not sure what he said that touched nerve #1. Where exactly did he criticize you for earning a good living?

It was kinda implied. [post="273472"]Click[/post]. It was the tone there that bothered me.

Nerve #2, only slightly. I don't think he directly attempted to insult your parenting methods.

I never said he criticised me specifically in either case. Hey, I have no problem with the life path snoseek has decided to take. I applaud people that are self aware enough to know they shouldn't have kids. With that said, someone that has never done it is not qualified to comment on the right way to parent. The fact that he thinks raising a child is like caring for a dog proves that.

It's not a big deal. We're just on very different paths, I guess...

 

[Greg]

Anyway you sound a bit like my sister that has a holier than thou, I've reached a whole different level of being because I reproduced. It actually touches a nerve with me because most of the family treats me like I'm gay and they're are hardcore christian.

Like I said in my previous post, good on you for picking the road that works best for you. I have no problem with that. Just don't imply the road others took is the wrong way, or that they're not following it correctly.

It's all good, we live completely separate lives, you took one fork, I took the other. You chose family, things, ect..., I choose experiences. I don't expect you to understand where I'm coming from.

No doubt. One final point I will make though. Family is an experience, that's for sure.

 

[Vinny]

I find the increased gas issue is blown way out of proportion for the non poor. It takes about 22 gallons of gas for me to go from westchester to Killington roundtrip. Say gas prices will increase $2.00 a gallon from this ski season from the previous. My weekend is costing me $44 more. At $2.50, $55 more. For my wife and I , discounted lift tixes will be $172 for 2 days. Lodging about $250. Food, maybe about $150. If gas is $5 a gallon, it will cost $110. $682 for the weekend instead of say $630. That's an increase in total cost of less than 10%. Add an extra day or kids to the mix, and the % price increase gets much smaller. Is this really a big deal? Hell, bring a hot plate or stay at a place with access to a microwave and don't go out for dinner and your ahead of the game.

I agree. Looking at the increase from a year prior, the incremental cost caused by gas increases (even at 2 bucks as in skiboarder's example) is not that much considering the total cost of a ski day/weekend/week. Those who travel with friends or family have an even smaller delta %. Those just trying to make ends meet, may be forced out, but I think that may be a small %, and they may have opted out anyway.

I think the biggest change we may see is that the mountains closer to Metro areas may get more of the total business. More thought may go into driving that extra 150 miles or so.

 

[deadheadskier]

I agree. Looking at the increase from a year prior, the incremental cost caused by gas increases (even at 2 bucks as in skiboarder's example) is not that much considering the total cost of a ski day/weekend/week. Those who travel with friends or family have an even smaller delta %. Those just trying to make ends meet, may be forced out, but I think that may be a small %, and they may have opted out anyway.

I think the biggest change we may see is that the mountains closer to Metro areas may get more of the total business. More thought may go into driving that extra 150 miles or so.

There is some truth to this, but it doesn't account for the 'total picture' as I stated earlier. While that scenario that skiboarder makes shows a rather modest increase of only $50 for the weekend, its the other areas of life that will hurt that I think will effect people more. Having commuting costs go up by 30+% and the cost to heat peoples home nearly doubling will be the areas that cause the real pinch and for people to monitor their discretionary spending much more. $50 isn't that much in the grand scheme of things. $1000-$2000 increase in heating oil expenses is for most people.

 

[Vortex]

I think your both chose to what you belive in. Common things ski passion. Snowseek chose turns. over family. I understand Greg in his feeling about kids and employment.

Takes alot less coin to live with without a faimily and a house payment. Very little flexibility once locked in.
Many choices are made for you

 

[snoseek]

It was kinda implied. [post="273472"]Click[/post]. It was the tone there that bothered me.

Just stating my simple opinion that the big car and house in the burbs will not be the model for the future. Just an thought, possibly an incorrect one.


With that said, someone that has never done it is not qualified to comment on the right way to parent.

are you kidding me:smash:


I have 18 years of experience form the other side as being a child. I'm conciously trying to do the opposite of what my parents did. They both worked their ass off and could have been less owned by their jobs. They were spenders.